If the UK abandons India on UK 1, then I think conditions are ripe to build an IPC in FIC on J1, and then another IPC in India on J2 (assuming the Russians can’t prevent you from placing units on it on J3). If you can place units J3, then at the end of J3 you’ll have at least 6 ground units (and as many as 10), and however many fighters you’ve sent.
But even if Russia is in a position to fight over India, I’d say bring it on. Like Hobbes said, any units sent to India won’t be heading toward Germany. If Japan builds an IC in FIC on J1, then Japan could almost certainly take India back if it commits. The earlier Russia starts fighting Japan, the sooner it’s bleed dry. Even if India changes hands every turn, I’d say that favors the Axis.
In my game, the US player build heavily in the Pacific, so it actually held me up for a round, but the fact that I could build six units per turn near the Caucuses is a big deal. If Germany takes a northern route to Moscow, then Russia has to split its forces to defend its two key territories.
The downside is that even if the US doesn’t do much in the Pacific, it’s still hard for Japan to keep the Russian troops in eastern Russia from heading south one territory if Japan doesn’t build transports (which it wouldn’t want to if it’s building ICs). If Germany is having any setbacks on its eastern front, Russia can end up with 30+ IPCs at the end of R3. And if that’s the case, then it’s a slow road to take IPCs away.
But not matter how things go, if you have transports, you have to protect them. I know I’m probably making a bigger deal of this than it is, but if the US has a Pacific fleet, it can island hop until Japan decides to deal with it. But once Japan moves its fleet out of SZ60, then its transports could be vulnerable (if the US has staged fighters and/or bombers in advance). There are a lot of what-ifs here, but if Japan builds ICs, then it doesn’t have transports to protect, which give its fleet and air units more flexibility.
If Germany can take Africa, and if the German eastern front doesn’t collapse, and if the Allies don’t fight for India or Eastern Chine, and if the US commits to the Pacific, and if the dice don’t bounce off the table and over your head and take a big dump on you. If, if, if.