In my opinion, there have been TOO many A&A games released lately. I am a fanatic but do not have the time nor energy to keep up with all the new rules sets. Others probably will disagree with my sentiments. I have yet to look at the global game. Probably a mistake on my part as ‘allegedly’ I am not playing the latest and greatest A&A global game. I can live with this for the time being.
After many years of A&A 2nd edition, Revised came along: a welcome and needed change to reinvigorate the global war. However, it’s life was cut short due to AA50. AA50 has all the makings of a great game. Personally, I think too many people have fallen in love with the National Objectives (me included). These only sway the game balance more to the already favored Axis side. Tech is (still) a crap shoot, but in the out of the box rules, maybe the only chance for the allies against a capable Axis player.
Capable Axis players push their initial military advantage to gain such a lead that the allies can never recover. IMHO, the allies need at least a $5 dollar bid in a typically played game of 1941: National objectives, tech/no tech. If this results in Germany not attacking Egypt, then the allies have a chance. If the Axis take Egypt on G1, the the allies better pray for either dice or tech. Both are a crap shoot.
There are ways to give the allies a more even chance like not playing with National Objectives or utilizing some other official optional rules like Dardanelles Closed to Sea Movement. See: http://harrisgamedesign.com/pdf/A&A_Anniversary_FAQ.pdf for FAQ and other key information not in the Game box.
Unless you make modifications like these, the allies will lose most of their games (without a bid). Sure, as you pointed out, a very BAD axis start might lead to an allied victory. But the odds of that happening are slim unless the axis player attempts many bad odds battles or fails to withdraw from a battle as needed. Most Axis players realize the limits of their forces and conduct attacks that are reasonable.
I think a huge key to the game is Egypt round 1. If the allies hold off a G1 attack or Germany decides not to attack, then the allies may have a chance. This is why a bid of $5+ is needed. There’s been many discussions on this board about the importance of that G1 battle, but I still maintain my position: If the Axis take Egypt on G1, allies have only 20% of winning (assuming no other ridiculous Axis battles).