Sorry for bumping old articles but I know stumbled across this forum.
In the end I can just second Zhukov. I guess this article is nicely written and an interesting read, but I am afraid in the end it kind of bloats the psychological aspects of the game which I think just as simple as Zhukov already explained.
One could probably highlight that I think there is a tendency of “bringing a battle to the end” especially when dices roll very bad which one could fight against.
Example: You try to wipe of Chines units with air only. You have a horrible first round losing a lot of air and making way less hits than expected.
–> Many people might be tempted to think “Cmon, I either have a great next round or the game is over”
One tends to force a fatal decision: Either I am back on track or I can resign the entire game and cut any suffering from being in a bad position.
The thing is: I think in the heat of the moment one tends to evaluate the overall situation after a retreat worse then it is in reality.
Often the winning chances are still better be accepting bad dices, retreat from the battles and find the best (often still risky) ways to equalize compared to choosing to continue hoping for extremely good dices which imo often as a worse expected value.