Italy a bad design

[Imperious Leader]

Germany can block with the CA in 104.

The CV cant bring the planes to attack my main fleet.

The CV can only now block in SZ 110, but alas i can swing into SZ 109 and invade from that side because uk lost the DD’s attacking my CA and SS.

Either way i stopped the Italian attack and also kill the rest of the British ships.

That was my only goal.

I am going back to original plan. 1 CV and 2 AP build.

Attack SZ 106 with 1 sub ( UK has 1 DD) 2 vs. 2. 40.6% to 39.5%

Attack SZ 109 1 fighter vs. 1 DD 3 vs. 2. 48.9% to 26% ( both die at 25.1%)

Attack SZ 110 2 subs, 1 tactical, 1 fighter, 1 bomber vs. 1 BB, 1 DD ( should win)
99.5%

Attack SZ 111 2 subs, 1 tactical, 1 Fighter, vs. 1 BB, 1 CA ( should win)
85.7%

Attack SZ 112 1 BB, 1 SS, 1 tactical, 1 Fighter vs 2 CA ( should win hit on BB)
99%

One CA blocks at SZ 104

Place all builds and 2 fighters on the CV in 112 with 3 AP. Now you got 1 BB, 1 CV and 2 fighters against 3 fighters attacking. I win in that.
97% of the time.

Sealion can proceed unopposed.

Remember the point of these posts is to find the solution to prevent UK from attacking Italian fleet on UK1. I think this is it. Finally.

[SgtBlitz]

@calvinhobbesliker:

@SgtBlitz:

Meh, maybe one could block SZ 110 with the BB and 2 subs instead.  Yeah, that’s still not going to hold against 3 planes and a dd, if they’re suicidal.

I wonder if Germany on NCM sends the BB to SZ 104 along with a sub to block and sends the CA to SZ 110 along with a leftover sub or two.  Or, how about they send both BB, subs, and CA to SZ 104?  How would that work?  Or, is it more along the lines of as long as the UK player puts in a unit to fight at each blocking SZ, no matter how remote a chance there is for the attacker’s CV on its NCM to get through to the landing plane’s SZ, they can still legally put a fighter into SZ 113 with the intention of it landing on SZ 110?

Meh, I guess it could save Italy from the Taranto raid.

Yeah, UK can just attack each blocking Sea Zone and then kill the transports in Z113. The DD hits Z104, a ftr hits Z110, another ftr hits Z113. 28 ipcs for 28 ipcs. If the ftr vs Z109 DD leves that DD alive, it can his one zone instead of a ftr, and so can the Canadian DD if it survives

Well, at least we’re getting to equal numbers of IPCs being lost here.  Looks like the only way of realistically pulling Sealion off on G2 is with the 1 CV 2 TRN buy, but with only 6 land units going in against 11 + 3 planes, it doesn’t look good.  Pretty much only way of pulling it off is to strafe the UK G1 to get rid of its airforce with enormous casaulties, then its 6 land units + a few surviving planes vs. 9 inf and 1 TAC.  Still close odds.

[calvinhobbesliker]

@SgtBlitz:

@calvinhobbesliker:

@SgtBlitz:

Meh, maybe one could block SZ 110 with the BB and 2 subs instead.  Yeah, that’s still not going to hold against 3 planes and a dd, if they’re suicidal.

I wonder if Germany on NCM sends the BB to SZ 104 along with a sub to block and sends the CA to SZ 110 along with a leftover sub or two.  Or, how about they send both BB, subs, and CA to SZ 104?  How would that work?  Or, is it more along the lines of as long as the UK player puts in a unit to fight at each blocking SZ, no matter how remote a chance there is for the attacker’s CV on its NCM to get through to the landing plane’s SZ, they can still legally put a fighter into SZ 113 with the intention of it landing on SZ 110?

Meh, I guess it could save Italy from the Taranto raid.

Yeah, UK can just attack each blocking Sea Zone and then kill the transports in Z113. The DD hits Z104, a ftr hits Z110, another ftr hits Z113. 28 ipcs for 28 ipcs. If the ftr vs Z109 DD leves that DD alive, it can his one zone instead of a ftr, and so can the Canadian DD if it survives

Well, at least we’re getting to equal numbers of IPCs being lost here.  Looks like the only way of realistically pulling Sealion off on G2 is with the 1 CV 2 TRN buy, but with only 6 land units going in against 11 + 3 planes, it doesn’t look good.  Pretty much only way of pulling it off is to strafe the UK G1 to get rid of its airforce with enormous casaulties, then its 6 land units + a few surviving planes vs. 9 inf and 1 TAC.  Still close odds.

If you attack the UK itself with 6 or 7 planes, at least 1 British BB will survive, and it can attack the German fleet in Z112 along with 3 ftrs, and a tac, DD, and CV if they’re needed

[Imperious Leader]

Pretty much only way of pulling it off is to strafe the UK G1 to get rid of its air force with enormous casualties, then its 6 land units + a few surviving planes vs. 9 inf and 1 TAC.  Still close odds.

HUH??

you might have something in that. one sec looking…

[calvinhobbesliker]

@Imperious:

Pretty much only way of pulling it off is to strafe the UK G1 to get rid of its air force with enormous casualties, then its 6 land units + a few surviving planes vs. 9 inf and 1 TAC.  Still close odds.

HUH??

you might have something in that. one sec looking…

He means Germany sends 7 planes to attack England. ^ will survive, and against 2 inf and 3 ftr, will salvage 2 planes

[oztea]

The 104 block with a cruiser is a pretty big deal IL

I cant seem to counter it yet……

Other than the fact that the German fleet is now only a likeley damaged battleship, carrier and 2 planes

You might be able to attack the German Cruiser in 104 with a destroyer from canbada if it surivived with the gibraltar one, to use the Tacbomber on the german fleet

13 attacking 14, but the 14 has an extra hit to take on the carrier

[Imperious Leader]

The 104 block with a cruiser is a pretty big deal IL

:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: yes finally i got a defence!!

I cant seem to counter it yet……

Other than the fact that the German fleet is now only a likely damaged battleship, carrier and 2 planes

UK cant sink it with the 3 fighters… main point. I hope :-D

You might be able to attack the German Cruiser in 104 with a destroyer from Canada if it survived with the Gibraltar one, to use the Tacbomber on the german fleet

Yes but know this: the CV takes 2 hits and my planes can land and still attack. This give me BB, CV and 2 fighters 5 hit fleet against 4 planes…

4/2/4/4 vs 3/3/3/4  i still think i win that, and keep a BB and he loses his planes in the attempt. Plus he still has to deal with my CA vs his last DD 2 against a 3? no way.

He might forget the CA and i got one SB back. The key is this forces the exchange and saves Italy from ruin. Thats all im trying to do. By hook or crook.

[SgtBlitz]

@Imperious:

Pretty much only way of pulling it off is to strafe the UK G1 to get rid of its air force with enormous casualties, then its 6 land units + a few surviving planes vs. 9 inf and 1 TAC.  Still close odds.

HUH??

you might have something in that. one sec looking…

Beh, I almost posted something really stupid just now, such as leaving the entire German fleet in SZ 113 so the UK carrier can’t strafe the new transports.  Except that it’s assured the UK is going to block a G2 Sealion with something if SZ 112 is left abandoned… real smart there.

The massive air attack G1 should be able to take out the UK air force with even dice, but will be left with squat planes for the invasion round on G2 (hopefully two).  Perhaps if we try mixing up the CA block in SZ 104 (kill the DD/BB in SZ 110 with 2 subs 1 FIG) with the London blitz, the most the UK can counterattack with is the CA/BB in SZ 111 plus the TAC from the CV against SZ 112’s 1 BB (prob dmged), 1 SS, 1 CV and 2 FIGs (or Tacs depending on what survived from England).  Germany will have the advantage (and 3 TRNS in range).

The UK could fall back to SZ 110 with possibly 1 DD, 1 CV, 1 CA, 1 BB blocking the Channel and 9 INF and 1 TAC on England at the end of UK1.  G2 should have several subs bordering the UK available for the attack on the fleet, including the newly repaired BB.  If the Germans can get at least 3 planes to the UK along with the 3 ARM/3 INF on the boats they should have an even shot.

Hell, I even looked at building a NB on Germany Round 1 but there’s not enough cash to build any more than 2 TRNS into SZ 114.

[calvinhobbesliker]

@SgtBlitz:

@Imperious:

Pretty much only way of pulling it off is to strafe the UK G1 to get rid of its air force with enormous casualties, then its 6 land units + a few surviving planes vs. 9 inf and 1 TAC.  Still close odds.

HUH??

you might have something in that. one sec looking…

Beh, I almost posted something really stupid just now, such as leaving the entire German fleet in SZ 113 so the UK carrier can’t strafe the new transports.  Except that it’s assured the UK is going to block a G2 Sealion with something if SZ 112 is left abandoned… real smart there.

The massive air attack G1 should be able to take out the UK air force with even dice, but will be left with squat planes for the invasion round on G2 (hopefully two).  Perhaps if we try mixing up the CA block in SZ 104 (kill the DD/BB in SZ 110 with 2 subs 1 FIG) with the London blitz, the most the UK can counterattack with is the CA/BB in SZ 111 plus the TAC from the CV against SZ 112’s 1 BB (prob dmged), 1 SS, 1 CV and 2 FIGs (or Tacs depending on what survived from England).  Germany will have the advantage (and 3 TRNS in range).

The UK could fall back to SZ 110 with possibly 1 DD, 1 CV, 1 CA, 1 BB blocking the Channel and 9 INF and 1 TAC on England at the end of UK1.  G2 should have several subs bordering the UK available for the attack on the fleet, including the newly repaired BB.  If the Germans can get at least 3 planes to the UK along with the 3 ARM/3 INF on the boats they should have an even shot.

Hell, I even looked at building a NB on Germany Round 1 but there’s not enough cash to build any more than 2 TRNS into SZ 114.

Germans strafing England will all 7 planes possible will remain with 2.
http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html?&rules=1&aaGuns=true&attFighter=3&attBomber=4&defInfantry=2&defFighter=3
And since the Tacs reduce to 3 after some fts are killed, sometimes only 1 plane will survive.

[Imperious Leader]

Its not viable.

[Croesus]

I’m sorry, I could only read the first nine pages before I had to post.

What I believe all of you are missing:EGYPT DOESN’T MATTER
G1 attack normandy, Strafe france central
Instead I1 attack syria, the brits will move to defend egypt ahead of and blow up half your navy, also probably grab eastern persia.
I1:Take Syria, Tunisia, Greece, Southern France and France proper
I2: Take Iraq and strengthen your Tobruk garrison to defend against a british strike there
I3: Build an Industry in Iraq…
I4: Take over southern africa first, Egypt WILL follow

Note: This is a strategy to be used IF britain does well UK1, if they do not do well proceed with normal moves

[Latro]

@Imperious:

Germany can block with the CA in 104.

The CV cant bring the planes to attack my main fleet.

The CV can only now block in SZ 110, but alas i can swing into SZ 109 and invade from that side because uk lost the DD’s attacking my CA and SS.

Either way i stopped the Italian attack and also kill the rest of the British ships.

That was my only goal.

:| … it’s not about the chance you will win those battles, it’s all about what you risk to lose (since the focus of this strategy lies on what happens during G2).

• Attack on SZ106 with 1 sub with bad odds: a return hit at any time will save the transport at minimum and allow for reinforcements to arive in the UK … very bad for operation Sealion.

• Attack on SZ109 with 1 fighter with about even odds: losing the fighter is bad for operation Sealion, if the destroyer also survives the Kriegsmarine is at risk as well … again a very risky move.

• Attacks on SZ110/111 at good odds: good firepower and enough subs to take the returnfire. There is however for both battles a small risk that one round of shooting will not be enough and that the defenders manage to score 3 hits with the extra round (two shots from the battleship, one from the destroyer or cruiser).

• Attack on SZ112 with the surface fleet minus the cruiser: roughly a 25% chance of receiving two hits back … meaning another critical loss to either the Kriegsmarine or the Luftwaffe.

I don’t see how this would work except in cases of extreme luck. Fail in one of several battles (going from somewhat risky to very risky) and the whole thing comes crashing down, leaving the Kriegsmarine spread out and exposed, or operation Sealion already to weak before it even has begun and perhaps the Italian Fleet possibly still at risk … or all of the above.

Meanwhile the UK can sit back and relax, see what happens, see where the weak spots appear and take full advantage of it.

8-)

(PS Is it me or is the tekst-field when you reply to a post very wobbly … it makes typing very annoying.)

[Imperious Leader]

Attack SZ 106 with 1 sub ( UK has 1 DD) 2 vs. 2. 40.6% to 39.5%

Attack SZ 109 1 fighter vs. 1 DD 3 vs. 2. 48.9% to 26% ( both die at 25.1%)

Attack SZ 110 2 subs, 1 tactical, 1 fighter, 1 bomber vs. 1 BB, 1 DD ( should win)
99.5%

Attack SZ 111 2 subs, 1 tactical, 1 Fighter, vs. 1 BB, 1 CA ( should win)
85.7%

Attack SZ 112 1 BB, 1 tactical, 1 Fighter vs 2 CA ( should win hit on BB)
89%

leaving the Kriegsmarine spread out and exposed

Actually not really. The cruiser makes my BB and CV with 2 fighters protected against 3 of his fighters attacking on UK1

His navy is blocked entirely against SZ 112.  I have 2 subs each on each side to block a DD from coming in.

I could fix SZ 109 attack and replace with bomber, and put the fighter with the BB attack.

The first attack IS a coin flip, but the others are not. I expect to lose 2-3 subs and a BB hit. If i roll down i expect to lose a fighter or bomber in SZ 109

One CA blocks at SZ 104 the subs block either DD.

If i lose both subs in one battle, i think i can still win against 3 fighters and DD against a 2 hit CV BB and 2 fighters.

This both protects my main fleet that is coming out, causes UK to avoid attacking Italian fleet, Gives Germany a chance for Sealion, kills most of UK’s fleet, and kills the balance of UK’s fleet on the next turn if they choose to attack my CA on UK1.

[MODEL]

@Imperious:

His navy is blocked entirely against SZ 112.  I have 2 subs each on each side to block a DD from coming in.

Submarines don’t block surface warship movement

[Imperious Leader]

i guess i meant to say the CA blocks the DD and CV if he wanted to attack my main fleet. only planes can reach.

[LordFoul]

I was looking at a interesting long shot at stopping the Italian fleet destruction…

I went in with the assumption that the only thing that needs to happen is disabling the CV in 91, and the UK can’t pull off the strategy - he’ll have no landing place for his aircraft.

The Germans have 2 subs in range of zone 91, at 103 and 108.

The UK has 1 CV, 1 DD, and 1 TAC.

So 2 @ 2 VS 2 @ 2 and 1 @ 3, no sneak shots apply.

From an initial glance, this looks really bad.

Yes the Germans have an outright chance of hitting both shots (1/6 total), that’s pretty extreme.

Rather, what happens if both sides just get 1 hit and it goes to the second round - a more likely possibility?

What is the UK player supposed to take as his casualty?  He can’t absorb it with the TAC…  If he just absorbs it with the CV, then mission accomplished the TAC can’t be used and no planes can land on the CV to use against the Italian fleet.  But wait, if he takes the hit with the DD then life gets real interesting - his TAC no longer hit the sub!  Making it an even contest - sub vs CV for the rest of the fight.

Anyways, this needs some play testing - it is risky but I’m just curious if it’s worth a shot to try and save the Italian BB and transport.

[calvinhobbesliker]

@LordFoul:

I was looking at a interesting long shot at stopping the Italian fleet destruction…

I went in with the assumption that the only thing that needs to happen is disabling the CV in 91, and the UK can’t pull off the strategy - he’ll have no landing place for his aircraft.

The Germans have 2 subs in range of zone 91, at 103 and 108.

The UK has 1 CV, 1 DD, and 1 TAC.

So 2 @ 2 VS 2 @ 2 and 1 @ 3, no sneak shots apply.

From an initial glance, this looks really bad.

Yes the Germans have an outright chance of hitting both shots (1/6 total), that’s pretty extreme.

Rather, what happens if both sides just get 1 hit and it goes to the second round - a more likely possibility?

What is the UK player supposed to take as his casualty?  He can’t absorb it with the TAC…  If he just absorbs it with the CV, then mission accomplished the TAC can’t be used and no planes can land on the CV to use against the Italian fleet.  But wait, if he takes the hit with the DD then life gets real interesting - his TAC no longer hit the sub!  Making it an even contest - sub vs CV for the rest of the fight.

Anyways, this needs some play testing - it is risky but I’m just curious if it’s worth a shot to try and save the Italian BB and transport.

I damage the CV, tac lands in Gibraltar. On UK’s turn, carrier gets repaired by Gibraltar naval base, and Britian can use the air base and thus can attack with 2 ftrs(1 from England), the tac landing on Malta

[LordFoul]

Your right, I reread where repair happens in the rules - makes this a non starter.

[Imperious Leader]

I went in with the assumption that the only thing that needs to happen is disabling the CV in 91, and the UK can’t pull off the strategy

The key is to force UK to fear losing UK to invasion. If this fear is great enough using my plan he can only really get after a CA and if he does this i got the rest of his fleet. If he still goes for Italy, ill just send part of my fleet to Medd and kill him.

[Latro]

Actually not really. The cruiser makes my BB and CV with 2 fighters protected against 3 of his fighters attacking on UK1.

His navy is blocked entirely against SZ 112.  I have 2 subs each on each side to block a DD from coming in.

It’s not just a question about if the UK wants to attack the German fleet, but also about if it needs to attack it at all …

These two battles for example. First there’s the chance of the defending UK fleet scoring enough hits to eliminate all the submarine blockers (roughly a 20% and 30% chance). Then there’s also the smaller, but still very real, risk of losing aircraft if the attackers don’t score enough hits to prevent a second round (roughly a 10% and 15% chance).

I could fix SZ 109 attack and replace with bomber, and put the fighter with the BB attack.

The first attack IS a coin flip, but the others are not. I expect to lose 2-3 subs and a BB hit. If i roll down i expect to lose a fighter or bomber in SZ 109.

The first attack is actually even worse odds than an even coin flip (roughly a 35% chance of complete success) because the German attack also “fails” if the defending destroyer scores a hit while going down itself … only a “clean kill” works, otherwise the surviving transport would still bring reinforcements to the UK.

The attack on SZ109 gives you about a 45% chance of losing the bomber. Very costly victory that could turn out to be.

There’s also the 25% chance of losing an aircraft in the attack on SZ112.

One CA blocks at SZ 104 the subs block either DD.

If i lose both subs in one battle, i think i can still win against 3 fighters and DD against a 2 hit CV BB and 2 fighters.

This both protects my main fleet that is coming out, causes UK to avoid attacking Italian fleet, Gives Germany a chance for Sealion, kills most of UK’s fleet, and kills the balance of UK’s fleet on the next turn if they choose to attack my CA on UK1.

So my point remains that the combined risks will very likely leave Germany in a position where operation Sealion is no longer a serious threat to the UK. Simply build a stack of additional infantry, which can later be used in amphibious assaults anyway, and go ahead with other plans such as killing the Italian fleet or sink the German cruiser and start concentrating for early landings in Europe …

65% chance of reinforcements from Canada
10%, 15%, 25% chances of losing a fighter
45% chance of losing the bomber
Depending on the remaining Luftwaffe, a high % chance of an AA kill during Sealion as well.

That said, personally I never really like strategies that turn out to be a game-deciding gamble during the first few turns. Where’s the fun in that? (… even if it does work sometimes) I prefer something that results in a more long-term stronger position on the board. Less dramatic perhaps, but usually a lot more effective with little chance of a critical backfire.

In this case I would probably buy a carrier + destroyer + submarine for Germany. Kill the British home fleet with massive overkill and concentrate the German surface fleet in SZ112, land the Luftwaffe in Holland as much as possible. The main threat of this would be to place an economic blockade on the UK and possibly Canada … so the choice for the UK would be: kill the Italian fleet and lose up to 11 IPC each round, or leave the Italians and try to break the blockade.

… and even if the Italian fleet goes down, I’m curious if the UK can keep the Axis out of Egypt long enough to really matter (but that depends on the new situation in the Pacific and that’s another discussion).

8-)