I’m also expecting the Germans to have more navy then normal in the Baltic w/many subs in the Atlantic. That and the fact the UK will most likely be isolated the first 2-3 rounds (no allies), could take its toll on the UK navy.
@WILD:
There is no way UK will be able to take out the Italian navy in its opening move (remember UK goes before the Italians). UK will not be able to attack and sink the Italian navy rd1, (if it can game is broken) but it will get the chance to move its units into a def posture.
Edit:
Let me rephrase this, as long as Germany does its job rd #1, and takes crucial units from UK that are in striking range of the Italian navy, then the UK should not be able to sink the Italian navy. I do remember a German blunder not taking out UK ships in sz 12/15 rd1 in AA50 that leads to the Italian navy getting sunk rd1.