New Odds Battle Calculator

[djensen]

I fixed the bugs. Thanks for the report.

[PGsquig]

@djensen Wow, this calculator is lightning fast.

I would definitely enjoy a “clear” button to zero out all units.

A “swap sides” button would be super convenient.

“Must take territory/ Kill one land unit last” would be helpful as well.

If you are able to make it more complex, it would be great to have the option to calculate two wave attacks.

[djensen]

@PGsquig said in New Odds Battle Calculator:

it would be great to have the option to calculate two wave attacks.

What do you mean by two wave attacks? Can you provide an example?

[PGsquig]

@djensen
For example, say we’re playing 1942 and I’m the Allies.
I’d want to be able to calculate my odds to take Berlin if UK attacks and then US immediately attacks in the same round. There should also be an option to add reinforcements since Japan will get a chance to add units to Berlin before the US turn.
This calculator in advanced mode allows for two (and three) wave attacks: https://aa1942calc.com/

[djensen]

@PGsquig Got it. I’ll add that to the todo list.

[SeaYa]

@PGsquig - An interesting multi-wave feature in the link you shared. While helpful for assessing initial attack units to be marshalled at the front, in practical play, it seems you would be re-assessing after the first roll of wave one anyway, and then completely re-assessing at the start of the next country’s turn/assualt.

Said another way, if the first assualt goes sideways for the attacker, I would hope one would not blindly commit to sending in wave 2, regardless of wave 1 outcome.

Said yet another way, how useful is a multi-wave calculator, vs. re-assessing each wave with a solid, single wave calculator?

[PGsquig]

@SeaYa I agree that I’d re-evaluate after the first wave. I’d absolutely want to know what my chances are overall before I launch the first wave, though, which is why the two-wave function is so important.

[SeaYa]

@PGsquig - sure, that makes sense. Depending on a hard take (want to hold territory after capturing) vs. soft trade (only want to capture, assume lost next turn) it’s nice to see the confidence intervals around units left.

[LincolnHawk]

Hi Dave,

Axis and Allies Anniversary Edition Naval battle. Two subs against a destroyer and transport. On the defender outcomes, shouldn’t there be an outcome where only the transport ship survives?

Thank you!

[mshih]

I’ve also been working on a calculator based on math.

Here’s a link: https://mshih01.github.io/aacalc2/

It has most of the features of aa1942calc.com… multiwave support, rounds of battle, amphibious assault. (the missing feature is the monte carlo analysis to support extra large battles )

It also has advanced retreat options…
number of rounds.
number of attacking units <=
expected profit continuing < threshold
probability of winning < threshold
probability of losing air > threshold.
probability of killing defenders > threshold (strafe analysis).

The territory can also be marked as deadzone in the profit computation – in which case attacking captured land units count inf(-2), art(-3), arm(-4.5) towards the profit computation.

I think it’s even faster than your implementation. If you like, we can discuss implementation details.