@TheDesertFox
It depends on the circumstances.
Obviously the Axis should scramble if doing so causes British odds of winning to go significantly down.
Still, even if the British are likely to win I would still scramble. This is because the British only have a high chance of winning if they take their carrier as a hit-soaker first. However, if the British do that, some of the fighters from London or elsewhere may not have a place to land, and if they survived the battle they would be destroyed.
On the other hand, if the British start taking combat units first, there’s still a 30-40% chance of the Axis winning that fight.
Overall, scrambling forces the British to make some hard choices at a time when the Italians won’t be able to do much naval damage if the British succeed.