Hi Corwallis,
I see two responses from Italy after that UK opener. Note that I haven’t fully optimized the moves but more highlighted the key concepts of the Italian turn.
I also see a huge weakness with your plan is the requirement to divert Indian planes into Africa. With the loss of those aircraft, India will likely fall on J4 or J5 against a competent Axis opponent. I don’t think that your opener is nearly as good as either Taranto or moving the fleet to Gibraltar.
@Arthur-Bomber-Harris
Bad dice for UK on the Taranto raid also means game over for UK so to prevent that from happening i came up with this idea.
A succesful taranto is the best solution there is no discussion about that but without bid and with OOB rules you have and 80% chance of pulling it of so 1 game in 5 you´re screwed.
Italy going for gibraltar on I1 is something they can do even after doing taranto and yes it sucks but a US commitment to that i think they can retake sooner than turn 4. Check my Sahara express for my US idea on that.
Italy going for egypt is possible but when they put their fleet next go egypt on I1 (like in your 2nd picture) the UK can smash it with air (6 air units) on UK2 so they won´t do that. On UK2 you rejoin the med with a reinforced UK fleet and you built a factory and airbase there and with the troops from Iran as reinforcement italy can´t take egypt on I2 or I3. On UK3 you can attack the italian fleet wherever they are in the med.
Every game i´ve tried this now italy always overstretches on I1. Yes pulling fighters away from India is not ideal you are right but my priority is to hold egypt and a strong RAF which can then return to egypt or even moscow.
That SZ 98 sea/air battle is dicey for the British. Here is the results for 20 simulated attacks of the 6 UK planes against that fleet. Assuming the Italians build a fighter or transport on I1 to support an I2 attack, the British will need at least 4 remaining planes to be able to adequately defend Egypt with high probability. There is about a 30% chance of that happening which ain’t good odds.
If the Italians get diced, it isn’t a big deal for them as they often aren’t a big factor in most games anyway.
I will take my 80% odds in Taranto as victory usually means loss of a significant number of Axis planes that are crucial to typical strategies.
@Arthur-Bomber-Harris italy can attack with 10 land and 3 air units so UK needs 2 fighters. Plus the french fleet can still Block or even attack the transport that you´ve built.
Italy losing that fleet especially those transports does Hurt them.
But to really play save as UK you could also not do the Ethiopia attack but in stead land the Inf and art from India in italia somaliland thus giving you 2 extra units on egypt. Attacking with the same amount of units but with a lot of inf on 1 against units defending on 2 or more is more of hale marie than a good plan.
And with taranto, italy can do the same, they can still go for egypt with the same odds.
@Cornwallis I agree with the game plan to avoid the Ethiopia attack on UK1. If the dice go wrong, Egypt can easily fall on I2.
Getting diced in Africa to Italy is a horrible way for the Allies to lose in the opening turns as the Italians generally only have the role to provide a canopener in Russia and make sure they don’t lose their capitol.
@Arthur-Bomber-Harris i also agree with you that taranto is the best and easiest way to Block italy but even then they can threaten egypt especially if germany supports them.
It´s good we can discuss the use of my idea which is by far not waterproof i know.
This is another idea for the US when germany buys their fleet on G1 to prevent the Allies from getting to gibraltar.
@Cornwallis I am not a fan of marching American units through French West Africa to support the British. I like to have my Allied fleet closer to Western Europe to force Germany to be at least partially defensive with land units to defend the Fatherland.
If Germany buys some fleet in G1, you definitely want to be able to combine the UK Med fleet with the American fleet with airbase support in Gibraltar. Gibastion is risky in a no-bid game, but you have to take risks as the Allies since you start off with such a disadvantage.
Here is the end of Turn 1 in the Adam514/Farmboy playoff (BM). The UK fleet then moves SZ110 on turn 2 with the protection of a new aircraft carrier that is built that turn, along with assistance of a couple American planes. The strong protection in Algeria was a key part of the turn 1 moves as it prevents the Italians from taking the territory and allowing a landing spot for the German airplanes to attack SZ92. Truly genius gameplay by Farmboy.
I see the main weakness is the Italians could attack either SZ92 or Egpyt on I1, with a 13% chance of victory that would essentially mean “game-over” if the Allies get diced.
I would be tempted to take that gamble if I played against Farmboy and indeed I did a bold early-game attack on SZ92 in last years playoffs when he slightly miscalculated the required defenses. He faced a tough decision: scramble for a better odds of defense, but if he lost his UK fighters then Egpyt would likely be crushed. He opted not to scramble and the devastating losses were impossible to recover from. Small mistakes are game-changing on the UK opener.
Let me expand on the reasoning for a risky I1 attack that has a 13% odds of success like in the top picture above. Farmboy is a significantly better player than me so my estimated odds of winning at the start of the game will be about 20% if I had a fair bid, and only 6%-ish in an OOB match with no bid. Yeah, I would need a dice miracle to pull out that victory.
Hence, I get odds tables like the one shown below. If I attacked either Egpyt or the fleet and get great dice, my odds go way up of victory. If I get diced as the Italians on I1, it isn’t that big of a change since the Italians were not expected to contribute much beyond the can-opening in the Eastern Front which they still can do even after loss of the fleet. When you look at the overall chance of my winning the game, it goes slightly up in a “fair” bid match and way up in the no-bid scenario.
Lesson of this story: take the gamble when you are playing against a superior opponent or if you are playing OOB Allies with no-bid. If the dice are absolutely awful for the Allies on turn 1, concede the match or find another crazy-risky attack to have a chance of winning. Playing conservatively against a superior opponent will inevitably make you lose the game.
Some opponents hate my aggressive under-dog play style and won’t go against me unless it is Low-Luck. I won’t play low-luck against a superior opponent since there is no way to come back against minor mistakes.
@Arthur-Bomber-Harris what is holding italy from attacking the fleet? US might not be at war so italy can attack with its fleet and bomber so 6 against 6 units. Germany can finish off easily.
I don´t know what germany builts but our germany usually builts sub/DD/ carrier so they can attack with two bombers and 2 fighters.
The US doesn´t need to continu chucking troops to egypt. Only the mechs continu to egypt. The infantry can stay in West Africa and once the combined allied fleet is large enough they can combine next to gibraltar. The Sahara express can also be done when going for KJF since it requiers almost no US investments.
As Allies you can´t write a playbook bc you need to anticipate. I want to hand some ideas to players they can try and which I don´t see (often) online .
@Arthur-Bomber-Harris couldn´t italy simply go Syria and take greece so on I2 they can Chuck in more troops and go after Iraq and more bonusses. Gibastion is nice but has so much “what ifs” and italy has more options towards egypt.
The United States is obviously at war in that Farmboy match which is why his units can come to Africa and Gibraltar. Germany built only ground units which is the common G1 strat now as they can reach Bryansk on the G5 which is very pivotal part of the game, forcing Russia to turtle in Moscow for the mid-game. Over-spending on German navy is a common mistake of novice players and one of the main reasons why people fail to consistently win as the Axis in OOB matches.
Italy could have gone to Syria on I1, but getting that nice Greece/Southern France bonus is wonderful for their economy. I usually find that Italian forces in Iraq get quickly overwhelmed by the British without too significant of casualties. Planes can hit it easily from Egpyt and India making the location difficult to defend in the early game. Personally, I like using the transports to take Cyprus and Malta which are expensive for the British to reclaim without losing transport/ground units themselves and is a major drain on the UK production until the mid-game. I am not saying your idea is bad, I just haven’t seen it successful enough to make much of an impact.
The Adam-Farmboy match is Balance mod so there are additional incentives for both Axis and Allies to hold the islands in the med.
@Arthur-Bomber-Harris yes the all out rush to moscow is hard for allies to defend against but also makes for a boring game. Playing with a german fleet buy on G1 buys germany time to built up a land mass bc they can keep allies away from gibraltar and it opens opportunities for germany to enter the Med which helps italians around gibraltar. We´re not novice players but searching for alternatives strategies.
The Allies in your games, Do they go KGF or kJF?
@Cornwallis I play mostly OOB with Bid now. The general gameplay involves Germany slowly advancing on Moscow and capturing it around G10-G14 while making it costly for the Allies to have a strong foothold in Western Europe. Meanwhile China gets enough support in the bid to prevent the fall of India for quite a while.
The United States spends the first turn of income in the Pacific but then shifts towards Germany to allow an eventual invasion of W Europe or Scandinavia.
You should look through more League matches of top players like Andrew or Farmboy to get battle-tested strategies that can win even with +50 bids for the Allies. Small details make a huge difference when you are facing a master who can battlecalc all scenarios and find minor tactical flaws. One extra fighter can make a huge difference in the expected outcome of a battle.
