UK inf is on a US tp in sz94.
League General Discussion Thread
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@axis-dominion is that the raw number from the calc or mathing out the avg remaining units? On low odds plays I manually calculate expected TUV for both scenarios using the Avg Defender and Avg Attacker units remaining
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@Stucifer said in Post League Game Results Here:
Most players here probably know statistics better than me actually so I hope that doesn’t come across as patronizing. 🤓
I recall vividly in one of my first league matches here, with @ArtofWar1947 and I recall winning a ~30% battle. I was elated of course, but he was a superior strategist and ground me down for a victory. I do admire the tenacity of some players that continue to battle despite the odds seemingly stacked against them. Like the Brits in the dark days of 1940-41, sometimes the grit pays off.
you should see how much of a pounding i got from all his luck earlier in the game… i still continued, but this latest result was the nail in the coffin.
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It was many years ago, in one of my many battles with my nemesis @boldfresh that I would say “there was a 2% chance of that happening”, or “there was a 1% chance of that happening”. To which he famously replied “1% and 2% chances seem to happen an awful lot in this game (Axis and Allies)”.
Well, it’s easy to overlook: There’s a 1% and 2% chance on either end of the curve, so there is a 4% chance that a 2% chance will happen. And of course, we breeze by all the expected results but that more extreme one happens and it gets a lot more attention.
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@gamerman01 said in Post League Game Results Here:
That’s right, several of the core A&A rules from the 70’s, 80’s are unchanged and that is one of the big ones.
We top players are in danger of taking the game too seriously sometimes. It’s designed for fun!!
LOL you talk JUST like a top A&A player. Analytical through and through, frustrated by the decisions of fate that you can do nothing about (you said it best in your game thread - let it ride, we live and die by the dice), and starting to obsess about every point of ELO (lol I know you’ll counter that)
Be careful with % chances and expected TUV changes.
i guess what i’m saying is that, strictly from a competitive league standpoint, there’s no good incentive to play a significantly lower ranked (or new) player. if it’s just for fun, which i totally agree with btw! then i should just play them outside of the league.
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@axis-dominion said in Post League Game Results Here:
you should see how much of a pounding i got from all his luck earlier in the game… i still continued, but this latest result was the nail in the coffin.
I gotta ask. Did you not see the guys complaining and agape over his luck in the PTV discussion thread, complete with an AI parrot of Trump talking about Peirce’s luck? (As if each roll is not an independent event LOOOOL) A lot funner to believe in the streaks.
You ran into a buzzsaw! My legendary luck has counteracted some of his, though LOOOL
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@axis-dominion said in Post League Game Results Here:
@gamerman01 said in Post League Game Results Here:
That’s right, several of the core A&A rules from the 70’s, 80’s are unchanged and that is one of the big ones.
We top players are in danger of taking the game too seriously sometimes. It’s designed for fun!!
LOL you talk JUST like a top A&A player. Analytical through and through, frustrated by the decisions of fate that you can do nothing about (you said it best in your game thread - let it ride, we live and die by the dice), and starting to obsess about every point of ELO (lol I know you’ll counter that)
Be careful with % chances and expected TUV changes.
i guess what i’m saying is that, strictly from a competitive league standpoint, there’s no good incentive to play a significantly lower ranked (or new) player. if it’s just for fun, which i totally agree with btw! then i should just play them outside of the league.
and then let the dice roll on! lol
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@gamerman01 said in Post League Game Results Here:
@axis-dominion said in Post League Game Results Here:
you should see how much of a pounding i got from all his luck earlier in the game… i still continued, but this latest result was the nail in the coffin.
I gotta ask. Did you not see the guys complaining and agape over his luck in the PTV discussion thread, complete with an AI parrot of Trump talking about Peirce’s luck? (As if each roll is not an independent event LOOOOL) A lot funner to believe in the streaks.
You ran into a buzzsaw! My legendary luck has counteracted some of his, though LOOOL
i was the one who started that thread lol
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@axis-dominion Disagree. Again, your rating is in the stratosphere. If you want to caress your ELO, you are almost a lock against anyone below 1800 or 1900, yet your ELO goes up a few points each time. What do you think it should be?
Any good system is going to weight your rating by the strength of your competition. If you get too much from just decent players, you’d just farm them.
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@axis-dominion said in Post League Game Results Here:
i was the one who started that thread lol
From an earlier game, or what was happening in this one?
Seriously, you might need to re-evaluate just a smidge, your interpretation of what you’re seeing in a calculator. And be careful what you expect.
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@gamerman01 said in Post League Game Results Here:
@axis-dominion Disagree. Again, your rating is in the stratosphere. If you want to caress your ELO, you are almost a lock against anyone below 1800 or 1900, yet your ELO goes up a few points each time. What do you think it should be?
Any good system is going to weight your rating by the strength of your competition. If you get too much from just decent players, you’d just farm them.
i’m not looking for more from just decent players, just not wanting to nose dive due to really stupid dice lol.
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@axis-dominion LOOOOL that is inevitable, it’s going to happen once in a great while and you know it
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@gamerman01 said in Post League Game Results Here:
@axis-dominion LOOOOL that is inevitable, it’s going to happen once in a great while and you know it
yes but i can control that by being more selective with my opponents. if my opponent is closer to my ranking and they take a big risk and win, i wouldn’t nose dive…
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But that will happen a lot more often! You earned the right to be proud! It sucks to be knocked down a peg. Just sleep on it
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13 points to get back to #1 above @Adam514
Man, Adam isn’t even rubbing it in your face or anything. Lick your wounds, lion, and get back out there! -
@gamerman01 said in Post League Game Results Here:
@axis-dominion said in Post League Game Results Here:
i was the one who started that thread lol
From an earlier game, or what was happening in this one?
Seriously, you might need to re-evaluate just a smidge, your interpretation of what you’re seeing in a calculator. And be careful what you expect.
the reality is that all the top players play by the odds and things get very positional, we kinda have to given how tight things are on every front… . we can’t play to near 0% odds for attacker so we have to settle for less, usually < 50% and somewhat bad tuv results. we expect an equally strong opponent not to risk going for less than optimal results unless they’re desperate. usually top players are at the top precisely because they don’t take bad odds unless they have to. going back to my main point.
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@gamerman01 said in Post League Game Results Here:
13 points to get back to #1 above @Adam514
Man, Adam isn’t even rubbing it in your face or anything. Lick your wounds, lion, and get back out there!i’m a tiger now
;)
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@axis-dominion what is the importance of a few ELO points when your pretty much guaranteed to be a top 3 ranked playoff qualifier every year? And those bad odds battles will go in your favor more often than not.
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You did the community a service, Peirce’s rating is leaping to it’s rightful level faster, and others are getting a clearer picture of what they’re up against.
And when I beat him, I’ll get more points
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@gamerman01 said in Post League Game Results Here:
You did the community a service, Peirce’s rating is leaping to it’s rightful level faster, and others are getting a clearer picture of what they’re up against.
And when I beat him, I’ll get more points
LOL, yes i did you and others currently against him a favor, assuming you don’t get as f/lucked as i did.
from his moves i think he is a decently good player, i don’t doubt that. but luck very much decided our game unfortunately, and there were enough weaknesses in his play that if it were not for that level of luck, i’m confident the outcome would be very different. i would agree with you if going forward he did not depend on luck so much but played the odds and positioning as any other top player does.
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in lobby play, you swing and hit, and you swing and miss, and then you miss miss hit miss, it doesn’t matter, you just come back the next day and play for fun. your results are not recorded.
in league play, it’s not the same. you quickly learn that swinging might get you a quick boost with an occasional lucky shot against a top tier player, but eventually, like ME, pacifier, and ABH who like to take those swings found out, you’ll rarely get near the top and stick around there. most likely the best you’ll get to is tier E, if you have some skill to go along with all that swinging.
don’t get me wrong, players like these guys are super fun to play against, just sucks that the league structure/rating is such that it’s very punishing if you’re a top player and get caught in their lucky swing.
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