League General Discussion Thread

[gamerman01]

The pie chart of how many games of each version are played is also updated, to show the past 18 months rather than all-time. What are league players playing these days? Go to the statistics tab.

[axis-dominion]

expected tuv for G was around -32 and instead he scores 138…

[peirce]

@axis-dominion Your play was superb. Sorry to have had the dice decide the match (that’s why I offered to go LL for the 1-2 combo for those battles - I just wanted to wipe out your ground, since Germany could replenish quickly, and didn’t want it to end the game). Happy to have a rematch some other time. Cheers.

[Booper]

@axis-dominion

Yeah, sucks and extremely frustrating when it happens. But yourself as one of the top ELO players on these boards, the “rest of us regular folks” have to take extra risk in order to win.

[peirce]

@axis-dominion Out of curiosity, would you not have done that attack, in my shoes? I had tons of ground units right there to replace German losses, and in any LL scenario, all Russian/US ground units are wiped out, allowing some German air to retreat, taking 100% of the pressure off of Germany. Even if you divert from max D and lose US planes (costly), Russia would still only be left with ~10 tanks next to two stacks of 10+ inf/arty in Austria and Slovakia-Hungary, with another 17 units placed in Germany/W.Germ that turn.

Germany was under pressure, and this removed it completely, with the sole risk being the loss of ground units on Germany’s doorstep (where it had another 40 at the end of this turn, plus whatever air retreated from Yugoslavia). No risk of losing the capital, and Russia’s nearest inf stack was way back in Russia.

I had captured and held London and Sydney several turns prior, and sacked India last turn, and was ahead with TUV, so removing the threat to Germany (at a risk that Germany could easily afford) was the smart play, in my view. It was why I offered to run the battles on LL beforehand - so that dice wouldn’t mess up the game.

It sucks that a brutal dicing ended our game. But wouldn’t you have taken that calculated risk, as Germany?

[axis-dominion]

i wouldn’t, unless i felt desperate enough and my only chance to win. at -32 tuv average, the chances of getting even worse than that is just too high, not to mention the prior risk you took with all those italian units (if they rolled badly or whiffed, that’s a massive loss right there in vain). even if it went to average, it would relieve some pressure in the short term yes, but allies have a fairly good position and could and only get stronger. as long as i feel i’m winning or have a decent shot at winning, i’d play the patient game and strike when odds were much better. you don’t become the #1 player in the world by taking huge risks in big battles like that. can you beat the #1 player swinging and taking such risks, of course, it’s a dice game after all. but can you get consistent wins and climb to the top and remain there for any sustained period taking such risks? i don’t think so, unless you really are master of luck, which maybe you are? lol

such arguments as yours are similar to those of players like ABH and his game theory, which, no disrespect but will never be a top tier player altho he will occasionally win against a top tier.

if you care to prove me wrong on that, we could change the result to the expected average and see if clearing the allied land units really made that much of a difference to the risks you took.

[axis-dominion]

@gamerman01 i’m curious, if i had won against peirce vs his beating me, what is the rating difference? ie i see that my rating took a serious nose dive after losing to him thanks to lady luck. i’m guessing if i had won, i’d gain almost nothing from it?

[gamerman01]

@axis-dominion said in Post League Game Results Here:

if you care to prove me wrong on that, we could change the result to the expected average and see if clearing the allied land units really made that much of a difference to the risks you took.

@peirce This sounds like something to consider.
Of course, if A-D has already formally resigned (I haven’t seen that he has, for sure) then you are under no obligation whatsoever

[mikawagunichi]

@axis-dominion you can make a copy of the spreadsheet and fill in your own results in the data tab to check this for any 2 players you wish

[gamerman01]

The thing is, though, @peirce offered low luck, right? And so if the luck had gone against him, then…

So it seems @peirce might agree to continue to prove his statements, but the game result should not be changed, in my view, because he offered the LL, it was turned down, and then he got great luck

[gamerman01]

@axis-dominion said in Post League Game Results Here:

@gamerman01 i’m curious, if i had won against peirce vs his beating me, what is the rating difference? ie i see that my rating took a serious nose dive after losing to him thanks to lady luck. i’m guessing if i had won, i’d gain almost nothing from it?

I’ll check for you right away.
It’s MrRoboto’s system, I wash my hands, but yes you are at a stratospheric rating and he is up and coming so there’s going to be a big adjustment when that happens

[gamerman01]

My overall got murdered by a single throw of the dice in a Classic game this year…

You would have been +3
Because you’re ELO is super high
Maybe too high.

[axis-dominion]

@gamerman01 said in Post League Game Results Here:

The thing is, though, @peirce offered low luck, right? And so if the luck had gone against him, then…

So it seems @peirce might agree to continue to prove his statements, but the game result should not be changed, in my view, because he offered the LL, it was turned down, and then he got great luck

yeah i mean i lost fair and square, so he’s def the winner here. just that if he believes what he says strongly enough, he will back it up with action which in this case is to play from the position of an average outcome and see if he can prove his statements.

[axis-dominion]

@gamerman01 said in Post League Game Results Here:

My overall got murdered by a single throw of the dice in a Classic game this year…

You would have been +3
Because you’re ELO is super high
Maybe too high.

and what was mine from this loss, something like -50 or -60?

this means that it’s a terrible incentive for me to be playing anyone far below my rating, esp given that they are much more likely and prone to take big swings and hope for a lucky big result. it’s unfortunate because i think people like pacifier, abh, and peirce definitely have pretty solid skill, but they look at the rating differential and think their best chance is to take those swings and get lucky for an occasional big win.

not ever happening again for me. i’ll stick to only closely rated players from now on, even if it means i only play 1-3 players all year. sad, but…

blame the system.

[axis-dominion]

if anybody far below my rating wants to play me, happy to do so outside of the league. just not worth it for me in league if the most i’ll gain is a handful of points.

[axis-dominion]

@axis-dominion said in Post League Game Results Here:

if anybody far below my rating wants to play me, happy to do so outside of the league. just not worth it for me in league if the most i’ll gain is a handful of points.

i would make one exception to this, which is, if you’re willing to resist the temptation of taking big risks unnecessarily (meaning you only take the big risk if you’ve got no other choice) and instead play the odds and go for positional play and are genuinely striving to become a consistently good player.

[axis-dominion]

@gamerman01 said in Post League Game Results Here:

My overall got murdered by a single throw of the dice in a Classic game this year…

that sucks.

so we can relate lol

[gamerman01]

I’m back here now, because I was thinking.

For both you and me, a big part of what happened was we were playing someone who’s stronger than their current rating.

I played @Ragnell804 in Classic, and he’d been playing a lot of Classic games and is a strong player, and experienced. He hadn’t played many in the league yet, so was under-rated. My overall was a result of past OOB and BM exploits over 13 years and it got taken down pretty good by a Classic game of a few rounds. That’s OK, as I keep playing it should seek the right level.

As you probably know, @peirce is a veteran, sounds like. I don’t know how many games he’s played before the league but it’s a lot. You guys maybe have about equal PtV experience.

@peirce has just 9 games notched in league play, across versions.

So I will stress that like @Ragnell804 , Peirce simply isn’t a known quantity in the league. In other words, you and I kind of got ambushed, if we’re being protective of our ELO, that is.

So you know what I’m saying - don’t ban lower rated players and instruct them not to take huge risks. Instead be very wary of players the league doesn’t know much about, yet. When you play ABH, who has a 1767 and 42-30, plus we know a bit about his play style, he’s a known quantity. There’s a big difference between he and Peirce, that way. I just wanted to bring that up and I’m confident that will help.

[axis-dominion]

yes i do factor that in, in this particular case i knew he was experienced from his introduction and knew he is coming from lobby play, which both adam and i came from as well, so i knew to expect solid play and not underestimate him. frankly, that’s why i decided to give him a chance.

i don’t think i was ambushed, at least not by skill alone lol there was a ton of help from luck, unfortunately for me, and fortunately for him. one only needs to review the game and will readily conclude this.

in the end, it’s a dice game. he took the big risks and got lucky.

my point is simple, relying on such luck will not make for a consistent record. if he continues along that trajectory, he will see mediocre results. i think he’s better than that. is what i’m saying.

[axis-dominion]

i think this game could benefit a lot from a rule change that allowed the defender to retreat as well. this would help avoid these kinds of situations. always seemed odd to me that only attacker can retreat.