@farmboy said in L24 OOB Playoff RD 2 AndrewAAGamer (X) vs farmboy (L+54):
@AndrewAAGamer I’m getting very lucky defensive dice here.
Yeah - so far. I am hoping it will even out soon.
Path to Victory League Discussion
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@axis-dominion @mikawagunichi @Stucifer I laughed out loud reading this - I had some crazy luck against Mikawa, but was suffering hard against Stucifer this game until the last battle in east Med. Wow, that was a bloodbath.
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@peirce 😄 It’s hard to communicate the jest/playful tone sometimes over text so please understand I am poking a little fun at our selective misfortunes at your (MARTI’s) hands. I got some brutal dice in our game with Japan so Germany was due for some mean reversion. 💀
Courtesy of my friend @mikawagunichi, I hope you laugh as much as I did!
https://youtube.com/shorts/aX6kbeKMv4E?feature=share -
LOL my pulse is pounding for the first dice I will be rolling against him soon
You can get the President to say anything you want? Where do you go to do that, please -
@gamerman01 lol that probably wasn’t even a top 5 Peirce-themed meme that I generated, but not all are forum appropriate
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@mikawagunichi You have more than 5???
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@gamerman01 I think one per major dicing is appropriate…and now we know I’m not the only victim!
The site is call Parrot AI…I got a lifetime subscription like 2 years ago for $20 or something…then the site became useless for a while because they sped up the default playback speed and it still sounded terrible if you slowed it down manually, but now it’s back to pretty good quality.
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@gamerman01 Hopefully not violating any forum rules here, a couple more for your viewing pleasure:
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Yeah those are really good. Glad to know about the site. That will be a lot of fun
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@Stucifer @mikawagunichi Oh, definitely understand the humour - they were received in the spirit they were sent. The dice gods piss on the just and the unjust alike, we’ve all been there. Watching those videos made me laugh so hard that my wife came to see what the ruckus was about. She did not appreciate them as much as I did (understatement).
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@mikawagunichi “He’s really good at getting statistically improbable dice.” Quite the reputation I’m burnishing here.
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@peirce I’ve already started thinking of words that rhyme with “mean reversion”
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I finally figured out some of MrRoboto’s charts and statistics in his statistics tab of the ELO rankings spreadsheet.
I changed the range of data to 1/1/24 - 6/30/25 to get the last year and a half’s snapshot.
Statistics like this can be very misleading, especially since these are just a composite of all games that have been finished since 1/1/24 and they are just averages.
Average PTV bids have been approximately 10 to the Axis over the past 18 months. The Axis win percentage has been 41.5%.
You may want to use the Player history search tab to analyze the success of some of your top players to get more reliable data, but according to the overall bids and results of the past 18 months… yeah.
-10 bids
41.5% Axis win% -
Very good info! Some confirmation bias I’m sure but I’ve mostly seen the top players like Axis-Dominion, Ghost, and Adam accepting 14 bids. Granted that’s the last 6 months. The rest of us must be bringing the average down 😅
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Yes, I’m having trouble making sense of it when going player by player. I’ll do a little more digging and update
The overall averages can be very misleading, it depends on who’s good at what and who takes what side.
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Here’s a little of what things look like behind the scenes.
Allies -- AxisArtofWar -13-14 // 15-7
+++++++48% // 68%Stucifer 8-4 // 6-10
++++++67% // 37%Ghostglider 7-1 // 13-1
+++++++ 88% // 93%Adam514 9-2 // 15-2
++++++ 82% // 88%666 17-10 // 11-8
++++63% // 58%Daaras 12-3 // 2-4
+++++80% // 33%Well that helps clear the crystal ball.
Look at your opponent’s record, decide which side you want, and bid accordingly. Don’t go much by averages. And I’ll throw in, bids don’t affect the game as much as most people think they do.ArtofWar is actually significantly better with Axis, and will take either side.
Stucifer actually mirrors the average. If the Axis are struggling so much, the 10 bids are not nearly high enough for your normal player.
Ghostglider is not a normal player. It doesn’t matter which side he takes, and the bid doesn’t matter much, he will smoke you.
Adam, same thing.
666 record shows the Allies have an edge and of course his games were bid too
Daaras is skewing the average a bit. Only 1 of those 4 Axis losses was against a tier E. Oh! He beat that same tier E with the Allies.
Looking over the game by game, Daaras has had a lot more success with the Allies against a lot of different players. Is he just really good with one side? Perhaps.So those are several looks inside the average. You decide.
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Oops - I should point out my person by person data is all-time, while the PTV win % and bid statistic was for the past 18 months. It’s not like the bids have increased much, though, so is pretty much apples to apples
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@gamerman01 Very interesting data, hopefully that will help some of mid tier folks scheme our way to the top…
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Does anyone else have problems with “out of memory” errors when playing PTV? None of the other flavors of A&A have this problem for me. I’m on turn 22 in a current game, and I can’t seem to play the game without getting the error. Normally, I just restart the game, but it doesn’t seem to fix anything for this long running game.
Funny thing is that it doesn’t seem to crash the game. I just get a pop-up and if I close the dialog, it seems to continue. Does anyone know what problems would occur if I just ignore it?
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