As you have both said, I think it comes down to how much Germany has to pull from the Russian front to make it happen. Obviously losing London is worse, it’s a huge loss in income for the Allies. But it does stretch Germany’s strategic goals heavily in three different directions.
I think Germany has 3 goals once they capture London:
-
Hold London from being liberated,
-
Push for Leningrad for the extra NO money
- You have all those transports anyway, can also send a few to the Med for the next objective if you have Gib,
- Give enough support to Italy so they can achieve the bulk of their NOs
#1 and #3 are much easier if Axis holds Gibraltar.
Focusing on a Gib strategy vs a London strategy costs Germany a lot fewer ground units for the Eastern front, and money spent on transports can be spent on combat units. Can usually convoy away some UK IPCs on top of that. Buy an extra strat if you lose one, pounding London major into submission is 👌👌
A small surface fleet around London, maybe a few ships in the Med (+ building subs in 95 asap) with planes in S Italy or Malta gives you a lot of deterrence against a combined fleet move to 93 or UK buildup in 100. I’ve seen a lot of allied fleets sunk there.
Axis NOs threatened by Allies at Gib:
Germany - Atlantic Wall, Swedish Steel, Control of Balkans (11)
Italy - Mare Nostrum, North Africa, Control The Mediterranean & Roman Empire (18)
Allied NOs potentiated by holding Gib:
USA - French coastal NO, North Africa (10-15) Rome (difficult)
UK - Original territories, No Subs, Mediterranean Convoy, Southern Europe Beachhead (12)
In most games you probably see a 25-point contribution towards Axis income parity from these NOs, plus the requisite territories
USA - North Africa (5) +3 territories
UK - Original, Subs, Mediterranean (9)
Italy - Roman Empire (5) + North Africa