There was a lot more on Discord, where I was writing about development of KJF and anti-KJF, but possibly more on that later.
WHAT HAS COME BEFORE - UK1 TO SZ37, SUMMARY SO FAR
UK1 to sz37 is especially dangerous to Allies, as it opens the door to a lot of fast Axis pressure options. Despite a nominal percentage of approx 84.2% for the tactical objective of removing J’s East Indies battleship, carrier, and two fighters, in practice the fact UK has few good contingencies against failure means the line should be regarded as considerably risky unless some way to mitigate the risk, in terms of achieving Allied objectives, on a desired timeline, is found.
THE TIMELINE
The core problem with KJF is G is left to go wild in Europe, able to tweak and customize its full output towards a timing to pressure the Allies off Moscow - or fight a losing-stack battle, which is often even worse. Explicitly, on a G3 W Rus timeline with G1 tanks and G2 air splash, G4 captures Caucasus, then either G5 hits Moscow with tanks mobilized on Moscow up through G3, tanks mobilized on Karelia through G4, and bombers built on Berlin through G4.
Leaving aside discussion of a high-pressure G line that uses Caucasus production with expectation of quick capture of Moscow, transposition into alternate game, including variants with light Allied fleet presence, maintains G stack on W Rus, not Caucasus, preventing Allies from moving any combined UK/US ground units through Karelia into Moscow. The UK India stack is rendered irrelevant, as any major shift to Persia is followed by G stack shift to Caucasus, preventing India stack from uniting. If Allies respond with Finland stack shift to Karelia, G can shift back to W Rus, disrupting Allied reinforcements before they can march to Archangel then Moscow. Alternately, G can attack Persia stack with intent to retreat, weakening it so reducing UK’s defense options for India; collapse of India springboards J’s development against Africa.
G2 air splash leaves G with expected 7+ air units, along with J2 air to Ukraine, deterring any early threats to Karelia, even after G3 moves stack to W Rus. The Allies can still capture Karelia, then Axis can wipe transports and escorts, delaying UK/US counterpressure, meanwhile R is still cut off from reinforcement and choked for income.
UK1 to sz37 removes 1-2 fighters and Szechwan’s ground against a coordinated fast Axis offense, as well as opening up Africa options for faster G income which feeds their fast advance, so is quite dangerous.
AXIS POST-MOSCOW, AND THE R MOSCOW STACK
A key issue Allies have with Axis advance along the Ukr/W Rus/Cauc line, besides cutting off the India stack (or drawing it in, leaving J with less to deal with when pressuring India, either’s fine for Axis) - is the Moscow stack being rendered irrelevant.
Suppose G3 moves to West Russia, R4 stacks Moscow, G4 stacks Caucasus. Now what does the R stack do? If the R stack runs to China, G pushes to main stack to Persia and captures Moscow lightly, successfully disrupting R production to the tune of 5-6 units and preventing at least some Allied fighters from landing on Moscow assuming even light R recapture (as at least one Allied power will be unable to land fighters, having just recaptured Moscow). If the R stack runs to Persia, the G stack smashes or strafes while still capturing Moscow.
Specifically, the R stack has a lot of issues being significant to the defense of India, which is where the G stack heads after hitting Moscow - again, not necessarily to hold Moscow, but merely to disrupt production. Once G disrupts India production, J can clean up while G heads back to Moscow - in sum, the Axis win.
The base timeline we’re looking at off aggro G is G5 Moscow. The Axis can change that timeline to hit later if necessary to build more force, as they build up more units and continue to isolate Allies, but at any rate it can happen quite quickly.
In KJF by the time Moscow falls, the Allies do not only want to control the money islands (or whatever other strategic objective). They also want to have ICs running to the point that enough of a stack can be built to resist any oncoming G stack.
In KGF it’s really the same in a lot of ways, except Allies have to be a bit more careful where Axis victory by VC is concerned, and the Allies aren’t building new ICs or such, rather they’re often either concerned with making sure Moscow never falls while also trying to prevent Axis economic dominance then Axis trying to win on attrition - or the Axis are trying to smash Berlin as Moscow falls, then Allies try to consolidate before Axis can recover.
Regardless, there’s a sense, however vague, that this happens on a specific timeline. It is not enough that UK1 hits sz37. The question is, what effect is expected? What are the most likely scenarios that happen, and how do the Allies handle each of those possibilities? What is the timing of the key Allied pressure, how does that interact with key Axis pressure timing, and so forth.
UK1 TO SZ37 BRANCHES: KGF, KJF, SPLIT; TIMINGS UNDER PRESSURE
Fast pressure is always preferred, as fast pressure requires response that bleeds an opponent’s front.
But if an opponent has cost-efficient counters, expressed not simply in net IPC calculations, but also tactical and strategic importance, then the advantage of fast pressure is more than cancelled.
Both Axis powers start with a lot of units that the Allies must deal with to effectively apply pressure; this is made more difficult if the Axis make purchases that play to their strengths.
For KGF, the Allies want to prevent Axis win by VC, and either defend Moscow until the Allies can push outwards, or give up on Moscow and try to capture Berlin then consolidate to gain advantage before Japan can consolidate and advance after capturing Moscow. The Axis have to watch India and Africa; once those collapse, the Allies can lose the game over time on attrition.
For KJF, the Allies want to either relieve Moscow with fast tanks or fighters, pressure the Japanese navy into retreating so the Allies can operate with minimal hindrance, and capture valuable islands to set up industrial complexes to speed the Allied advance. After the Axis capture Moscow, the Allies may have a serious issue dealing with surviving G units moving towards India to disrupt production and reclaim territory, as well as G potentially building carriers to help defend J’s fleet. If possible, Allies want to capture the money islands well before Moscow falls, which typically means using UK and US together effectively.
For split, the Allies want to try to get the Axis to try to maintain local superiority of force in both theaters, slowing Axis advance. However, the Axis can coordinate and ignore one or both counterpressures, capture Moscow, then consolidate to press back outwards.
The less fast pressure the Axis apply, the more time the Allies have to develop.
