@SuperbattleshipYamato What do you think we should do? If you want to keep going here the file is. italy-turn-3-complete-game-32.tsvg
TGC (German) vs. Doman (Allies) Original Europe
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Forgot save game:
AAE-game10-A4.tsvg -
End of round 3 for Germany this game:
-1.88 in the Atlantic
-3.29 on the east front
-0.59 in the ME/AfricaNet: -5.76
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End of round 4 for Germany this game:
-1.63 in the Atlantic
-3.32 on the east front
-0.59 in the ME/AfricaNet: -5.54
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Beginning or round 5 Allies for Germany this game:
-1.88 in the Atlantic
-4.83on the east front
-0.59 in the ME/AfricaNet: -7.30
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Game History
Round: 5 Purchase Units - Germans Germans buy 3 bombers and 1 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; Combat Move - Germans 3 armour moved from East Poland to Caucasus 1 bomber moved from East Poland to Stalingrad 1 fighter moved from East Poland to Caucasus 1 infantry moved from East Poland to Belorussia Germans take Belorussia from Russians Combat - Germans Strategic bombing raid in Stalingrad Russians roll AA dice in Stalingrad : 1/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits 1 bomber owned by the Germans killed by AA in Stalingrad Bombing raid costs 0 PUs Battle in Caucasus Germans attack with 3 armour and 1 fighter Russians defend with 3 armour Germans roll dice for 3 armour and 1 fighter in Caucasus, round 2 : 2/4 hits, 2.00 expected hits Russians roll dice for 3 armour in Caucasus, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits 1 armour owned by the Germans lost in Caucasus 2 armour owned by the Russians lost in Caucasus Germans roll dice for 2 armour and 1 fighter in Caucasus, round 3 : 1/3 hits, 1.50 expected hits Russians roll dice for 1 armour in Caucasus, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 armour owned by the Germans lost in Caucasus 1 armour owned by the Russians lost in Caucasus Germans win, taking Caucasus from Russians with 1 armour and 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 5 Casualties for Germans: 2 armour Casualties for Russians: 3 armour Non Combat Move - Germans 1 fighter moved from Caucasus to East Poland 4 fighters moved from Germany to East Poland 8 armour moved from Germany to East Poland 18 armour, 10 artilleries and 52 infantry moved from East Poland to Belorussia 1 infantry moved from Baltic States to Belorussia 1 aaGun moved from Austria to Germany Place Units - Germans 3 bombers and 1 infantry placed in Germany Turn Complete - Germans Germans collect 43 PUs; end with 44 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
Russians regular : 0.67 Germans regular : -0.50 Russians AA : 0.83If the German bomber hadn’t gotten shot down, I have Moscow at 59%.
Since it was shot down, I have it at 43%. This says nothing for Berlin.While the dice were poor for the Germans from the first turn and didn’t change, so too were they last game and so its now very important: What do you ascribe your ability to go from 89% German win in the last game to these results with essentially the same dice in this game?
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@The_Good_Captain I said it to you privately in DMs but I’ll post in the forums for record keeping purposes:
I am rapidly coming to the realization that ME control may be much more vital than we gave it credit for, and rather than the current balance recommendations giving the Germans -1 DD in the Med (as well as denying them their initial 12 IPC bid) might be the better move overall than -1 TANK + -1 SUB
In this game specifically, Germany never took a single territory in the Middle East, which had the dual effect of denying Germany income (Which I feel amounted to ~1-2 “lost” tanks) while also boosting USA by ~1-2 Fighters over the course of the game. I don’t have concrete math to back up those guesses (you can probably go back and do the math yourself there) but I think the difference in the counts of power units (lost German Tanks, added US FTRs) contributed to a sizable % swing.
One last note, I feel like I did a better job guarding the Soviet Convoy over the course of this game Vs. last (mostly due to luck, of course). Any turn the USSR doesn’t have their convoy is effectively 1 lost INF for the endgame, which also adds up over the course of the game.
Will post my moves later. Your %s for Germany is much higher than I anticipated, but I got a few planes shot down over the last few turns so that may explain it.
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@The_Good_Captain Game History
Round: 5 Purchase Units - Russians Russians buy 7 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Russians 3 armour moved from Karelia to Moscow 3 infantry moved from Russia to Moscow 5 infantry moved from Turkestan to Moscow 1 bomber moved from Moscow to Leningrad 1 bomber moved from Leningrad to Baltic Sea Sea Zone 1 bomber moved from Baltic Sea Sea Zone to Germany Combat - Russians Battle in Germany Russians attack with 1 bomber Germans defend with 1 aaGun, 3 bombers, 1 factory, 1 fighter and 3 infantry Germans roll AA dice in Germany : 1/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits 1 bomber owned by the Russians lost in Germany Germans win with 3 bombers, 1 fighter and 3 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -15 Casualties for Russians: 1 bomber Non Combat Move - Russians 1 aaGun moved from Stalingrad to Turkestan 1 aaGun moved from Leningrad to Russia Place Units - Russians 7 infantry placed in Moscow Turn Complete - Russians Russians collect 15 PUs; end with 15 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
Germans AA : 0.83 -
This game may end up having a very unexpected conclusion. OOL?
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Other thoughts while waiting;
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The 4 extra Soviet INF off the bid (instead of the naval placement I tried last game) makes a world of difference when doing numbers-crunching. After losing the last game we did, I went back and checked what would have happened if Moscow had +4 INF, the % would have shifted to something like 6X% German-favored instead of the ~90% result we got.
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I tried comparing the Germany Vs. USA income spread for this game but it didn’t add up. Germany actually pulled in more money this game Vs. the previous one (probably from nabbing Caucasus a few times). Furthermore, USSR’s income was net lower as well.
Basically, I have no clue what happened. It may just be the alternate bid placement for Soviets but I suspect there’s something going on with the margins units lost during minor trades along the eastern front. You might want to do a deep dive on what exactly went on here after the game is over.
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OOL was discussed offline:
Game History
Round: 5 Purchase Units - British British buy 5 infantry and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 5 PUs; Combat Move - British Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by Americans from Moscow: 4 fighters EDIT: Adding units owned by Russians to Moscow: 4 fighters EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode 1 bomber moved from United Kingdom to Germany 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from United Kingdom to English Channel Sea Zone 1 artillery, 3 infantry and 2 transports moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to Germany 2 carriers and 4 fighters moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone 1 armour moved from France to Netherlands-Belgium British take Netherlands-Belgium from Germans 1 armour moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Germany 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Algeria to Morocco 1 fighter moved from Iran to Moscow EDIT: British undo move 9. 1 fighter moved from Iran to Moscow Combat - British Battle in Morocco British attack with 1 artillery and 3 infantry Germans defend with 1 armour British roll dice for 1 artillery and 3 infantry in Morocco, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1.00 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 armour in Morocco, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the British lost in Morocco 1 armour owned by the Germans lost in Morocco British win, taking Morocco from Germans with 1 artillery and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 2 Casualties for British: 1 infantry Casualties for Germans: 1 armour Battle in Germany British attack with 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 bomber and 3 infantry Germans defend with 1 aaGun, 3 bombers, 1 factory, 1 fighter and 3 infantry Germans roll AA dice in Germany : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits British roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 bomber and 3 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 0/6 hits, 2.17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 3 bombers, 1 fighter and 3 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 0/7 hits, 2.17 expected hits British roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 bomber and 3 infantry in Germany, round 3 : 5/6 hits, 2.17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 3 bombers, 1 fighter and 3 infantry in Germany, round 3 : 3/7 hits, 2.17 expected hits 3 infantry owned by the British lost in Germany 2 bombers owned by the Germans and 3 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Germany British roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 bomber in Germany, round 4 : 0/3 hits, 1.50 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 bomber and 1 fighter in Germany, round 4 : 2/2 hits, 0.83 expected hits 1 artillery owned by the British and 1 armour owned by the British lost in Germany British roll dice for 1 bomber in Germany, round 5 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 bomber and 1 fighter in Germany, round 5 : 0/2 hits, 0.83 expected hits 1 fighter owned by the Germans lost in Germany British roll dice for 1 bomber in Germany, round 6 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 bomber in Germany, round 6 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits 1 bomber owned by the Germans lost in Germany British win with 1 bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 48 Casualties for British: 1 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry Casualties for Germans: 3 bombers, 1 fighter and 3 infantry Non Combat Move - British 1 bomber moved from Germany to Russia Place Units - British 5 infantry placed in United Kingdom 1 transport placed in English Channel Sea Zone Turn Complete - British British collect 29 PUs; end with 34 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
Germans AA : -0.17 Germans regular : -0.50 British regular : -0.17Game History
Round: 5 Purchase Units - Americans Americans buy 6 infantry and 3 transports; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Americans 6 infantry moved from United States to U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone 6 infantry and 3 transports moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone 3 fighters moved from Russia to Moscow 4 fighters moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to Moscow Non Combat Move - Americans Place Units - Americans 3 transports placed in U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone 6 infantry placed in United States Turn Complete - Americans Americans collect 40 PUs; end with 40 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
ff645843-03b5-44dc-914e-abe7b7c17c83-AAE-game10-A5.tsvg
That outcome in Berlin was <10% BTW. Sorry.
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Game History
Round: 6 Purchase Units - Germans Germans buy 14 infantry; Remaining resources: 2 PUs; Combat Move - Germans 18 armour, 10 artilleries and 54 infantry moved from Belorussia to Moscow 8 armour moved from East Poland to Moscow 1 armour moved from Caucasus to Iraq Germans take Iran from Middle_East Germans take Iraq from Middle_East 5 fighters moved from East Poland to Moscow Combat - Germans Battle in Moscow Germans attack with 26 armour, 10 artilleries, 5 fighters and 54 infantry British defend with 1 fighter; Americans defend with 7 fighters; Russians defend with 1 aaGun, 3 armour, 4 artilleries, 1 factory, 5 fighters and 73 infantry Russians roll AA dice in Moscow : 1/5 hits, 0.83 expected hits 1 fighter owned by the Germans lost in Moscow Germans roll dice for 26 armour, 10 artilleries, 4 fighters and 54 infantry in Moscow, round 2 : 31/94 hits, 29.00 expected hits Russians roll dice for 3 armour, 4 artilleries, 13 fighters and 73 infantry in Moscow, round 2 : 31/93 hits, 35.33 expected hits 31 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Moscow 31 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Moscow Germans roll dice for 26 armour, 10 artilleries, 4 fighters and 23 infantry in Moscow, round 3 : 30/63 hits, 23.83 expected hits Russians roll dice for 3 armour, 4 artilleries, 13 fighters and 42 infantry in Moscow, round 3 : 24/62 hits, 25.00 expected hits 1 artillery owned by the Germans and 23 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Moscow 30 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Moscow Germans roll dice for 26 armour, 9 artilleries and 4 fighters in Moscow, round 4 : 13/39 hits, 18.00 expected hits Russians roll dice for 3 armour, 4 artilleries, 13 fighters and 12 infantry in Moscow, round 4 : 19/32 hits, 15.00 expected hits 9 artilleries owned by the Germans and 10 armour owned by the Germans lost in Moscow 12 infantry owned by the Russians and 1 artillery owned by the Russians lost in Moscow Germans roll dice for 16 armour and 4 fighters in Moscow, round 5 : 7/20 hits, 10.00 expected hits Russians roll dice for 3 armour, 3 artilleries and 13 fighters in Moscow, round 5 : 11/19 hits, 10.67 expected hits 11 armour owned by the Germans lost in Moscow 1 fighter owned by the Russians, 3 armour owned by the Russians and 3 artilleries owned by the Russians lost in Moscow Germans roll dice for 5 armour and 4 fighters in Moscow, round 6 : 4/9 hits, 4.50 expected hits Russians roll dice for 12 fighters in Moscow, round 6 : 9/12 hits, 8.00 expected hits 4 fighters owned by the Germans and 5 armour owned by the Germans lost in Moscow 4 fighters owned by the Russians lost in Moscow Russians win with 8 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is -82 Casualties for Germans: 26 armour, 10 artilleries, 5 fighters and 54 infantry Casualties for Russians: 3 armour, 4 artilleries, 5 fighters and 73 infantry Non Combat Move - Germans Place Units - Germans 14 infantry placed in Germany Turn Complete - Germans Germans collect 44 PUs; end with 46 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
Russians regular : -0.00 Germans regular : -0.33 Russians AA : 0.17G6 GG.tsvg whatever you did, please do it again lol - same sides please. You’re doing the lords work.
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Net TUV Round 1
EF: -7.31
Atlantic/WA: -18.89
Africa/Med: -0.44
Total: -26.64
Net TUV Round 2
EF: -12.74
Atlantic/WA: -4.19
Africa/Med: -27.59
Total: -44.52
Net TUV Round 3
EF: -2.68
Atlantic/WA: -4.19
Africa/Med: -24.13
Total: -31.00
Net TUV round 4
EF: +2.43
Atlantic/WA: +10.89
Africa/Med: -22.61
Total: -9.29
Net TUV Round 5
EF: -14.73
Atlantic/WA: +10.89
Africa/Med: -24.13
Germany: -13.98
Total: -41.95
Total without Germany: -27.97
Net TUV Round 6
EF: -14.73
Atlantic/WA: +10.89
Africa/Med: -24.13
Germany: -13.98
Moscow: +19.22
Total: -22.73
Overall TUV swing throughout the entire game
EF: +11
Atlantic/WA: +64
Africa/Med: +2
Germany: -33
Total: +44
Total (without combined attack on Germany): +77
(Moscow: -82) -
I think it’s safe to say that the Germans in each battle lost more TUV on average than in the last game. Also, the overall TUV swing is a bit lower. That might be a part of the explanation why the odds for Moscow are significantly lower. Germany got the wrong dice at the wrong moments in this game.
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@VictoryFirst Thanks!
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So to elaborate on what I was calculating here:
“Net TUV swing” is the difference between the Average TUV swing and the Actual TUV swing of each battle. So, a completely average game should have this number as close to 0 as possible. It is more or less equivalent to the Net Pieces that TGC calculated but with the IPC-value of each piece factored in (so -1.00 Net Pieces could mean one 3-IPC infantry or one 15-IPC bomber lost, this would be respectively around -3.00 and -15.00 with Net TUV swing).
So, the battles in the Atlantic generally have more extreme numbers because the naval units are far more expensive than land units.“Overall TUV swing throughout the entire game” is just a sum of the TUV swings of each battle. This number doesn’t really have an average but it should be compared to other games. It gives a sense for how many IPC worth of units the Germans killed versus how many they lost themselves, or in other words, how much they “gained”.
The names of the calculations might be a bit confusing though, I would rather see the second calculation be called “Net TUV swing”, the first one perhaps “TUV Swing Differential”?
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