Well, my N=1 attempt at this bid failed spectacularly. I bought 1 ftr for Moscow and 1 inf Yunnan. With the expectation of R1 moving 2 ftr + 1tac to Yunnan, I decided I would have to scramble on an G1 air attacks. I got good rolls and took out 5 ftrs losing 3. Everywhere else Germany
did very well, and my home fleet went to the bottom.
Japanese decided to attack and killed 6/8!! My return fire was 2/8. Next round eliminated the remaining 2 ftrs, but they did hit as they died. TUV change = +33 Axis (expected -9).
Of course, this was extremely bad luck/dice. Even 2 more hits would have at least traded 3 ftrs for 2. But it was the aftermath that really gave me pause for this gambit. In the Med, without an additional unit (sub) to attack SZ96 and wanting to setup for Gibastion, I was forced to attack with ftr + tac and hope for 66% chance DD misses…it didn’t.
So I’ve moved to SZ92 with fleet. But protecting Egypt will be difficult (again bid unit in Africa usually helps here). Russia is weakened considerably. China has a little boost because the 4 hits killed the land units so they have artillery, but little top cover.
I don’t like these quick holes created in the Allied lines if the 50-50 goes bad, and as @AndrewAAGamer pointed out, because the attacker gets to decide if the battle continues, it’s not really 50-50.