I think Japan still would have invaded the Soviet Union though, if the Second Sino-Japanese War continued (the oil embargo only really happened once they invaded Indochina).
Other than that I agree with you. That would be curious alternate reality.
I wonder how many other tanks are still out there…well, under there in Europe and Russia. There were many tank battles and with the marshes in Russia, if a tank got in, it was definitely hard to get out.