L22 OOB FINAL LL Myygames (X) VS ABH (L+50)

[Myygames]

@Arthur-Bomber-Harris l22-oob-final-ll-myygames-x-vs-abh_ITA8.tsvg

Well, I think I need to take the odds you are giving me. Its 50-50, which is actually better than my chances if I play along for a long game. At least that was my estimation of the situation, will be interesting to hear your thought on that later.

Without any sportsmnanship I say now: Good luck to me ;-)

Game History

Round: 8

    Purchase Units - Italians
        Italians buy 4 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Italians
        1 armour moved from Bryansk to Russia
        2 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from Volgograd to Russia
              Italians take Tambov from Russians
        1 bomber moved from Southern Italy to Russia

    Combat - Italians
        Battle in Russia
            Italians attack with 3 armour, 1 bomber and 1 mech_infantry
            British defend with 3 fighters; Russians defend with 3 aaGuns, 1 airfield, 2 armour, 20 artilleries, 1 factory_major, 4 fighters, 61 infantry, 1 mech_infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
                Russians roll AA dice in Russia : 0/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
                Italians roll dice for 3 armour, 1 bomber and 1 mech_infantry in Russia, round 2 : 2/1 hits, 2,33 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 3 aaGuns, 2 armour, 20 artilleries, 7 fighters, 61 infantry, 1 mech_infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Russia, round 2 : 33/1 hits, 33,50 expected hits
                2 infantry owned by the Russians, 1 mech_infantry owned by the Italians, 1 bomber owned by the Italians and 3 armour owned by the Italians lost in Russia
            Russians win with 3 aaGuns, 2 armour, 20 artilleries, 7 fighters, 59 infantry, 1 mech_infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is -28
            Casualties for Italians: 3 armour, 1 bomber and 1 mech_infantry
            Casualties for Russians: 2 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Italians
        1 armour and 2 mech_infantrys moved from Yugoslavia to Eastern Poland
        1 mech_infantry moved from Yugoslavia to Southern Italy
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Yugoslavia to Southern Italy
        2 aaGuns, 1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Yugoslavia to Northern Italy
        3 artilleries and 4 infantry moved from France to Northern Italy

    Place Units - Italians
        3 infantry placed in Southern Italy
        1 infantry placed in Northern Italy

    Turn Complete - Italians
        Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 9
            Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 93 Sea Zone. Rolls: 4,6
            Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 97 Sea Zone. Rolls: 2,4,4,1,3,1,3,6,6,1
            Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 105 Sea Zone. Rolls: 1,6
        Italians collect 12 PUs (9 lost to blockades); end with 12 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Italians regular : -0,33
Russians regular : -0,50
Russians AA : -0,17

[Arthur Bomber Harris]

l22-oob-final-ll-myygames-x-vs-abh_Fr8.tsvg

Game History

Round: 8

    Purchase Units - ANZAC
        ANZAC buy 3 submarines; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - ANZAC
        1 submarine moved from 33 Sea Zone to 43 Sea Zone
              ANZAC take 35 Sea Zone from Japanese

    Combat - ANZAC
        Battle in 43 Sea Zone
            ANZAC attack with 1 submarine
            Japanese defend with 1 transport
                1 transport owned by the Japanese lost in 43 Sea Zone
            ANZAC win, taking 43 Sea Zone from Neutral with 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 transport

    Non Combat Move - ANZAC
        1 fighter moved from New South Wales to 33 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from New South Wales to 33 Sea Zone
        1 aaGun moved from New South Wales to South Australia
        4 fighters moved from Northwest Persia to Russia
        2 submarines moved from 33 Sea Zone to 6 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 33 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone

    Place Units - ANZAC
        3 submarines placed in 62 Sea Zone

    Turn Complete - ANZAC
        ANZAC collect 10 PUs; end with 10 PUs
        Objective ANZAC 2 Control Strategic Islands: ANZAC met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 15 PUs

    Combat Move - French
        1 infantry moved from Northwest Persia to Caucasus

    Non Combat Move - French
        1 infantry moved from 99 Sea Zone to Greece
        1 infantry moved from 99 Sea Zone to Greece
        3 infantry moved from Egypt to Trans-Jordan

    Turn Complete - French

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

[Arthur Bomber Harris]

hmmm… 50/50 but just the bombers left if you do win. I didn’t think that you would accept that battle, but lets see what happens for the dice.

[crockett36]

@Arthur-Bomber-Harris Is it ironic that you all are playing a game of low luck and the battle for Moscow is 50/50? Just embrace the dice guys!

[Arthur Bomber Harris]

@crockett36 if this is were a regular luck game, I would have needed another ten units in Moscow to provide adequate defense. I would have been much more worried about being completely diced in this battle with Germany left with a fair number of tanks and planes.

Definitely changes the strategy with low-luck. Having said that, dice still play a major role. If I had shot down one German bomber previously, Moscow would easily hold this round. If Tokyo had shot down a USA bomber, the situation in the Pacific would be far less stressful.

A key part of my win over Andrew in the semi-finals was my incredible luck with strategic bombing in the mid-game. With average luck, he would have definitely won.

[Myygames]

@Arthur-Bomber-Harris l22-oob-final-ll-myygames-x-vs-abh_GER9_surrender.tsvg

This game is over at that point, I surrender to the overwhelming allied forces!

Congratulations for a very solid game, @Arthur-Bomber-Harris ! You played nearly flawless I would say. The fact that you gave me some odds in the end might actually be no tactical mistake at all; After some contemplation about the situation I realized I would probably also have lost if I had won Moscow. I think attacking Moscow was not a good decision. Anyways I think that in the back of my head I wanted to force a decision in that game and the earlier the better.

The game was a pain in the arse, right from my mistake in J2 I felt I was suffering more and more each turn. You made use of this with masterfull skill and your play was very, very solid. You deserve to be OOB Champion 2023, congratulations!

I will write up a summary of what I think were mistakes of mine in that game, and I would like to encourage Arthur and the lurkers here to do the same. I think I have drawn some insights in this loss that will probably help me in the future and I will share here with the community. This though, will not come before sunday this week.

[crockett36]

@Myygames I appreciate the invitation to ask questions. And if ABH is open to it, I will ask him. I’m currently reviewing the Japan 7 misunderstanding on my youtube channel.

[Arthur Bomber Harris]

@Myygames if you had a couple more bombers, you could have followed up the Moscow attack with an affordable London attack. That would have been game over for me.

[crockett36]

@Arthur-Bomber-Harris said in L22 OOB FINAL LL Myygames (X) VS ABH (L+50):

@crockett36 if this is were a regular luck game, I would have needed another ten units in Moscow to provide adequate defense. I would have been much more worried about being completely diced in this battle with Germany left with a fair number of tanks and planes.

Definitely changes the strategy with low-luck. Having said that, dice still play a major role. If I had shot down one German bomber previously, Moscow would easily hold this round. If Tokyo had shot down a USA bomber, the situation in the Pacific would be far less stressful.

A key part of my win over Andrew in the semi-finals was my incredible luck with strategic bombing in the mid-game. With average luck, he would have definitely won.

Reading between the lines, did you become less risk adverse given your disadvantageous position? In other words, did you decide to push your luck and go for broke? Which is a strategic option, right?

[crockett36]

Myygames: Was the Hunnan battle necessary?
ABH: same question.

[Arthur Bomber Harris]

@crockett36 that is a tough question. I don’t think it was an awful idea, but I wouldn’t have done it myself. The bigger mistake was having too much devoted to deter the American fleet in the first few rounds and just a little bit too few air units to force a Chinese retreat. After that point, there was no easy decision for Japan.

[crockett36]

@Arthur-Bomber-Harris
Thank you. I did understand that. And you? Did you think the trap was worth the catch? I think I saw you move to survive in other games, keeping a plus 20 force into later rounds. Were you satisfied with exchange?

[Arthur Bomber Harris]

@crockett36 with the bad dice roll, I was very happy. Usually I am content with equal unit value change for China and Japan. I came out way ahead thanks to luck.

If I was not attacked that round, I would have retreated to Yunnan the next turn. I could not stand toe to toe with Japan on this game since it was a J3 DoW. I would have had to retreat further west in subsequent rounds, losing my sweet bonus.

[crockett36]

@Arthur-Bomber-Harris Thank you for the reply. Would you play the China theatre any differently?

The Allied invasion effort in Europe looked haphazard. Was Greece your intention the whole time? Pull a bunch of slow movers to the coast and then swing around faster than he could respond? Obviously it depended on what he did, but was that plan A or B or C.

[Arthur Bomber Harris]

China did their job. I wasn’t satisfied with the effectiveness of the United States in Asia. So much spending and Japan was still a strong country. Perhaps more subs and fewer bombers.

I had hoped to keep my fleet next to Normandy and have an economic war there. I soon realized it was going to become impossible to sustain it from my side so headed to Greece. Should have done it earlier

[crockett36]

Thanks. In round 7, you had the option to convoy 5 sea zones and bomb two factories. Was your restraint due to fear of attack on the US fleet or were you just comfortable with the edge given by bombing Japan to 20/turn.

[Arthur Bomber Harris]

@crockett36 if I remember right, there was a narrow balance in the fleet battles and I needed every unit to discourage Japan from leaving the islands.

[crockett36]

https://youtu.be/lL0zxDzP67M?si=W2XaACC_wF5WaeUJ

[crockett36]

@crockett36 review of the finale!