BM 23 Playoff Final Gamerman (L+4) vs Farmboy (X)

[gamerman01]

Looked like a lot of red but you underrolled by 2

Probably can’t go again, but you’d better believe I’m going to check

[gamerman01]

Indeed it is strong. The numbers on 2-3 rounds were quite good. But once you’re in, I think I gotta go until it risks Moscow. Really enjoy the comments

[gamerman01]

I absolutely can’t let the Germans walk by Moscow with those odds. Germany has all the options and the allies don’t. You have to whack their stack. I have no doubt you made the right decision moving into Bryansk. You might have risked taking it with the Italians, though.

[gamerman01]

OK, now’s the point where you absolutely can’t keep going. Now it’s just a matter of how much you exploit and are aggressive, and how much you stay home around Moscow.

[gamerman01]

R5.tsvg

I can say this since I just lost 2 planes, all of my infantry, and some of my artillery:

Japan does have a very big problem in the South

[farmboy]

@gamerman01 said in BM 23 Playoff Final Gamerman (L+4) vs Farmboy (X):

I absolutely can’t let the Germans walk by Moscow with those odds. Germany has all the options and the allies don’t. You have to whack their stack. I have no doubt you made the right decision moving into Bryansk. You might have risked taking it with the Italians, though.

I appreciate that. And I’m not surprised you went for it. And on top of the close odds, you also have the benefit of the good early trades here given the breakdown of units. But I thought I had to go for it and was hoping you wouldn’t, (or you would and the dice would go my way) And Japan’s situation is another reason I had to do it too.

[gamerman01]

Completely agree

Doing a post-mortem now

[mainah]

@gamerman01
Been watching this real time - and now i am outa popcorn.
BRB

[gamerman01]

Cool - after that result it looks like there are many rounds of positioning, tricking, and mayhem and death ahead!

[gamerman01]

3 rounds, expected TUV was -17
I suffered a -68

But…
One of my favorite calculators say you were in the top 10% of results

And I was top 28%!!

BUT
It doesn’t take into account an extra 1.5 planes lost

You rolled 3 less hits than expected round 1, 1.7 less round 2, and 2 less in round 3.

Still a -68 which is 51 worse than average, but not as bad as it felt. Still pretty bad.

I know I don’t have to say this, but DON’T LET UP.

I’m still here. :ghost:

Have fun with J5

[gamerman01]

But yeah… that Burma was basically a 20 IPC turnaround with a plane surviving instead of dying, so what’s 51… lol quite a lot when it’s in ground units

Gnight

[JDOW]

Wow, that escalated quickly :)

I can totally understand why Gamerman went for it. A good outcome for Russia had game ending potential in favor of the Allies but a suboptimal one does not automatically lead to a losing position.

I stop writing here further thoughts because the situation on the board is too fresh. When the dust has settled I can share some further considerations, if desired.

[farmboy]

TripleA Turn Summary: Japanese round 5

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3

Game History

Round: 5

    Purchase Units - Japanese
        Japanese buy 3 destroyers, 3 infantry, 1 marine, 1 mech_infantry, 3 submarines and 2 transports; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 6 SuicideAttackTokens; 

    Combat Move - Japanese
        1 mech_infantry moved from Buyant-Uhaa to Suiyuyan
        1 infantry moved from Chahar to Suiyuyan
        1 infantry moved from Hopei to Shensi
        1 infantry moved from Kweichow to Shensi
        1 infantry moved from Szechwan to Shensi
        1 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from Kweichow to Shensi
        1 bomber moved from Kwangsi to Suiyuyan
        1 bomber and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Kwangsi to Shensi
        1 infantry moved from Siberia to Soviet Far East
              Japanese take Soviet Far East from Russians
        2 infantry moved from Philippines to 35 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 35 Sea Zone to 44 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from Philippines to 35 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 35 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 42 Sea Zone to Java
        2 infantry moved from 44 Sea Zone to Celebes
        2 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers moved from 35 Sea Zone to Java
        2 fighters moved from Philippines to Celebes
        1 fighter moved from Philippines to 42 Sea Zone
        1 tactical_bomber moved from 35 Sea Zone to 44 Sea Zone
        1 tactical_bomber moved from 35 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        2 fighters moved from Japan to 21 Sea Zone
        1 fighter and 3 tactical_bombers moved from 6 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer and 1 submarine moved from 6 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone

    Combat - Japanese
        Battle in 44 Sea Zone
            Japanese attack with 1 tactical_bomber and 1 transport
            Americans defend with 1 transport
                1 transport owned by the Americans lost in 44 Sea Zone
            Japanese win with 1 tactical_bomber and 1 transport remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
            Casualties for Americans: 1 transport
        Battle in 42 Sea Zone
            Japanese attack with 1 fighter and 1 transport
            ANZAC defend with 1 transport
                1 transport owned by the ANZAC lost in 42 Sea Zone
            Japanese win with 1 fighter and 1 transport remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
            Casualties for ANZAC: 1 transport
        Battle in 21 Sea Zone
            Japanese attack with 1 destroyer, 3 fighters, 1 submarine and 4 tactical_bombers
            Americans defend with 1 submarine
                Japanese roll dice for 1 submarine in 21 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Japanese roll dice for 1 destroyer, 3 fighters and 4 tactical_bombers in 21 Sea Zone, round 2 : 8/8 hits, 4.33 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 submarine in 21 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
                1 submarine owned by the Japanese lost in 21 Sea Zone
                1 submarine owned by the Americans lost in 21 Sea Zone
            Japanese win with 1 destroyer, 3 fighters and 4 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 submarine
            Casualties for Americans: 1 submarine
        Battle in Java
            Japanese attack with 2 fighters, 2 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers
            ANZAC defend with 1 artillery and 1 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 2 fighters, 2 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers in Java, round 2 : 3/6 hits, 2.67 expected hits
                ANZAC roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Java, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the ANZAC and 1 artillery owned by the ANZAC lost in Java
            Japanese win, taking Java from ANZAC with 2 fighters, 2 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
            Casualties for ANZAC: 1 artillery and 1 infantry
        Battle in Celebes
            Japanese attack with 2 fighters and 2 infantry
            Americans defend with 1 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 2 fighters and 2 infantry in Celebes, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 infantry in Celebes, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Japanese lost in Celebes
                1 infantry owned by the Americans lost in Celebes
            Japanese win, taking Celebes from Americans with 2 fighters and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Americans: 1 infantry
        Battle in Suiyuyan
            Japanese attack with 1 bomber, 1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
            Russians defend with 1 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 1 bomber, 1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry in Suiyuyan, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                Chinese roll dice for 1 infantry in Suiyuyan, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Japanese lost in Suiyuyan
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Suiyuyan
            Japanese win, taking Suiyuyan from Chinese with 1 bomber and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
        Battle in Shensi
            Japanese attack with 1 armour, 1 bomber, 3 infantry, 1 mech_infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
            Chinese defend with 3 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 1 armour, 1 bomber, 3 infantry, 1 mech_infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Shensi, round 2 : 2/7 hits, 2.50 expected hits
                Chinese roll dice for 3 infantry in Shensi, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                2 infantry owned by the Japanese lost in Shensi
                2 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Shensi
                Japanese roll dice for 1 armour, 1 bomber, 1 infantry, 1 mech_infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Shensi, round 3 : 4/5 hits, 2.17 expected hits
                Chinese roll dice for 1 infantry in Shensi, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Shensi
            Japanese win, taking Shensi from Chinese with 1 armour, 1 bomber, 1 infantry, 1 mech_infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Japanese: 2 infantry
            Casualties for Chinese: 3 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Japanese
        1 battleship, 3 carriers and 1 submarine moved from 35 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 35 Sea Zone to 55 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Celebes to 42 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Celebes to 42 Sea Zone
        2 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers moved from Java to 42 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from 42 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        1 tactical_bomber moved from 44 Sea Zone to French Indo China
        1 aaGun and 1 infantry moved from Buyant-Uhaa to Chahar
        1 mech_infantry moved from Manchuria to Anhwe
        1 infantry moved from Jehol to Anhwe
        2 infantry moved from Manchuria to Jehol
        1 infantry moved from Sakha to Buryatia
        1 infantry moved from Anhwe to Hopei
        1 infantry moved from Hunan to Kweichow
        1 infantry moved from Yunnan to Szechwan
        3 artilleries moved from Yunnan to French Indo China
        1 infantry moved from Kwangsi to Yunnan
        1 infantry moved from Kwangsi to Hunan
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Kwangsi to French Indo China
        1 infantry moved from French Indo China to Yunnan
        1 infantry moved from Japan to 6 Sea Zone
        1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 6 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Guam to 21 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 21 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 35 Sea Zone to Philippines
        1 cruiser moved from 35 Sea Zone to 46 Sea Zone
        1 carrier, 1 cruiser and 1 destroyer moved from 6 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 6 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        1 marine moved from Japan to 6 Sea Zone
        1 battleship, 1 carrier and 1 marine moved from 6 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone
        1 marine moved from 36 Sea Zone to French Indo China
        1 tactical_bomber moved from 21 Sea Zone to Japan
        1 fighter moved from Japan to French Indo China
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 21 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone
        2 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers moved from 21 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 35 Sea Zone to Philippines
        1 bomber moved from Suiyuyan to Jehol
        1 tactical_bomber moved from Shensi to Kweichow
        1 bomber moved from Shensi to French Indo China

    Place Units - Japanese
        2 destroyers, 3 submarines and 2 transports placed in 6 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 mech_infantry placed in Manchuria
        1 destroyer placed in 36 Sea Zone
        1 infantry and 1 marine placed in French Indo China
        Turning on Edit Mode
        EDIT: Removing units owned by Japanese from 35 Sea Zone: 1 transport
        EDIT: Removing units owned by Japanese from Philippines: 2 infantry
        EDIT: Adding units owned by Japanese to Guam: 1 infantry
        EDIT: Removing units owned by Japanese from Japan: 1 infantry
        EDIT: Adding units owned by Japanese to 36 Sea Zone: 1 transport
        EDIT: Adding units owned by Japanese to French Indo China: 2 infantry
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode

    Turn Complete - Japanese
        Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 0
            Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 41 Sea Zone. Rolls: 4,5
        Japanese collect 67 PUs; end with 67 PUs
        Objective Japanese 6 Home Islands: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 70 PUs
        Objective Japanese 4 Control Dutch East Indies: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 75 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Chinese regular : 1.33
Americans regular : 1.50
Japanese regular : 4.67
ANZAC regular : -0.67

Savegame

[gamerman01]

Thanks JDOW, that’s awesome. Of course everyone wants later input from a back-to-back champ

Correct, and I will say that I was not impatiently hoping for a game ender. I didn’t need 50th percentile either, it just stings so bad to lose 2 planes to AA.

[gamerman01]

I wake up with a fresh perspective.

And I see that I just got my hits on J5.

The Bryansk battle was probably pretty much an evening out of luck in this game so far.

A number of significant battles have gone my way.
G1 111 was big
G1 Yugo - FOUR hits. I couldn’t have even attempted Bryansk without this.
UK1 97 - all Axis units destroyed, this battle often determines the game

… maybe I fill in the gap later, gotta go right now …

Burma, bonus can-opener shutter survives to defend Moscow

In other words, I had good fortune to even have the opportunity to attack Bryansk.

Ta ta for now

[gamerman01]

I’m back
Axis has seldom been fortunate before Bryansk.
Other than those already mentioned, I thought these battles were at least a little significant.

G1 111 was big for Allies
G1 Yugo - FOUR hits. I couldn’t have even attempted Bryansk without this.
G1 106 cleared using 1 sub
G1 France went OK (Is a potential disaster for Germany)

J1 Hunan 2 INF lost
J1 Yunnan 3 INF lost

UK1 German SS, BB in 110 cleared w/o loss
UK1 97 - all Axis units destroyed, this battle often determines the game. UK gets away with cruiser/tac/bomber

I1 97 UK cruiser sinks a sub
I1 4 Italians lost in Greece/Tunisia/South France

J2 2 more infantry lost in Yunnan

J3 A little in your favor, saved a couple infantry

J4 Burma, all 3 J ground lost, ANZ plane survives

R5 Bryansk, 2 fighters lost, Russians lose several more ground units than average

Yes, in my opinion it confirms Bryansk was a make-up battle. It’s definitely debatable who has been luckier to this point, but it seems close to even now that Russia just hit a hail of AA fire and a wall of tanks

[gamerman01]

@gamerman01 said

It’s definitely debatable who has been luckier to this point

But it’s really great that there has been no debate.

Even though dice results are heavier in a critical battle by Moscow, I’ve had multiple breaks leading up to it that I think off-set it.

[farmboy]

@gamerman01 I appreciate the review here. There was some rough attrition for the axis in the early going to be sure but I didn’t think anything that should necessarily sink me. Maybe cumulatively it could, but your excellent play has been the larger issue. And now Bryansk should definitely even things out and give me some new life.

[gamerman01]

Thank you for saying you like the analysis, I just enjoy it and I thought some onlookers might like it. I’m glad you did too.

I think one of the biggest keys to success in A&A is not going with emotions, especially to dice, and also to adapting to unexpected situations, whether caused by dice or opponent prowess. (You wouldn’t be here if you didn’t know all this)
Almost equally important is not becoming over-confident and complacent.

It is time for me to adjust, and to not feel the pain. Wait, I just lost 2 Russian fighters to 3 AA shots??? Feeling the pain!!!

[gamerman01]

@gamerman01 Edited to consolidate the 2 posts. Otherwise, it looks like I’m leaving out some key battles.

Great game! Need to continue it right now!!