L22 PLAYOFF Avner (A+20) vs AetV (X) BM

[Avner]

fra12.tsvg

[Avner]

News?

…

[aequitas-et-veritas]

Oh shoot, sorry @Avner i had been in Prague this week.
I didn’t realized that it was my Turn.
Will do my Turn on Saturday the latest.
Thank you for letting me know.
I apologize!

[aequitas-et-veritas]

First Round of Combat in Bryansk, do you want to keep the AA-Guns?
If so how many?

Savegame_39672_1st Round Combat.tsvg

[Avner]

yes keep 2 AA

the rest at a loss

thx

[aequitas-et-veritas]

Savegame_39672_2nd_ Round Combat.tsvg

40 Hits. Do you want to hang on the AA-Guns or loose it?

[Avner]

lose AA

thx

[aequitas-et-veritas]

Game History

Round: 13

    Research Technology - Germans

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans buy 3 armour, 1 fighter, 7 infantry and 1 mech_infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Germans
        30 armour, 16 artilleries, 1 fighter, 19 infantry and 41 mech_infantrys moved from Western Ukraine to Bryansk
        9 mech_infantrys moved from Archangel to Bryansk
        2 bombers, 1 fighter and 2 mech_infantrys moved from Novgorod to Bryansk
        1 fighter moved from Vyborg to Bryansk
        1 transport moved from 115 Sea Zone to 114 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Germany to 114 Sea Zone
        1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 114 Sea Zone to 115 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from 115 Sea Zone to Finland
        1 infantry moved from Karelia to Finland
        1 fighter moved from Western Germany to Finland
        2 infantry moved from Western Germany to Holland Belgium
        2 tactical_bombers moved from Western Germany to Holland Belgium
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Germany to Holland Belgium

    Combat - Germans
        Battle in Finland
            Germans attack with 1 fighter and 2 infantry
            British defend with 2 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 1 cruiser in Finland, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 fighter and 2 infantry in Finland, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 0,83 expected hits
                British roll dice for 2 infantry in Finland, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                2 infantry owned by the British lost in Finland
            Germans win, taking Finland from British with 1 fighter and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
            Casualties for British: 2 infantry
        Battle in Holland Belgium
            Germans attack with 1 fighter, 2 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers
            British defend with 1 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 1 fighter, 2 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers in Holland Belgium, round 2 : 3/6 hits, 2,50 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 infantry in Holland Belgium, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the British lost in Holland Belgium
            Germans win, taking Holland Belgium from British with 1 fighter, 2 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for British: 1 infantry
        Battle in Bryansk
            Germans attack with 30 armour, 16 artilleries, 2 bombers, 3 fighters, 19 infantry and 52 mech_infantrys
            French defend with 1 fighter; Russians defend with 6 aaGuns, 4 armour, 7 artilleries, 95 infantry, 8 mech_infantrys and 2 tactical_bombers
                Russians roll AA dice in Bryansk : 2/5 hits, 0,83 expected hits
                2 fighters owned by the Germans lost in Bryansk
                Germans roll dice for 30 armour, 16 artilleries, 2 bombers, 1 fighter, 19 infantry and 52 mech_infantrys in Bryansk, round 2 : 37/120 hits, 36,67 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 6 aaGuns, 4 armour, 7 artilleries, 1 fighter, 95 infantry, 8 mech_infantrys and 2 tactical_bombers in Bryansk, round 2 : 36/117 hits, 40,33 expected hits
                33 infantry owned by the Russians, 19 infantry owned by the Germans, 4 aaGuns owned by the Russians and 17 mech_infantrys owned by the Germans lost in Bryansk
                Germans roll dice for 30 armour, 16 artilleries, 2 bombers, 1 fighter and 35 mech_infantrys in Bryansk, round 3 : 40/84 hits, 30,67 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 2 aaGuns, 4 armour, 7 artilleries, 1 fighter, 62 infantry, 8 mech_infantrys and 2 tactical_bombers in Bryansk, round 3 : 34/84 hits, 29,33 expected hits
                38 infantry owned by the Russians, 2 aaGuns owned by the Russians and 34 mech_infantrys owned by the Germans lost in Bryansk
                Germans roll dice for 30 armour, 16 artilleries, 2 bombers, 1 fighter and 1 mech_infantry in Bryansk, round 4 : 23/50 hits, 22,50 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 4 armour, 7 artilleries, 1 fighter, 24 infantry, 8 mech_infantrys and 2 tactical_bombers in Bryansk, round 4 : 16/46 hits, 16,67 expected hits
                23 infantry owned by the Russians, 15 artilleries owned by the Germans and 1 mech_infantry owned by the Germans lost in Bryansk
                Germans roll dice for 30 armour, 1 artillery, 2 bombers and 1 fighter in Bryansk, round 5 : 21/34 hits, 17,17 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 4 armour, 7 artilleries, 1 fighter, 1 infantry, 8 mech_infantrys and 2 tactical_bombers in Bryansk, round 5 : 8/23 hits, 9,00 expected hits
                8 mech_infantrys owned by the Russians, 1 tactical_bomber owned by the Russians, 1 infantry owned by the Russians, 4 armour owned by the Russians, 7 artilleries owned by the Russians, 1 artillery owned by the Germans and 7 armour owned by the Germans lost in Bryansk
                Germans roll dice for 23 armour, 2 bombers and 1 fighter in Bryansk, round 6 : 15/26 hits, 13,33 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber in Bryansk, round 6 : 2/2 hits, 1,17 expected hits
                1 tactical_bomber owned by the Russians, 2 armour owned by the Germans and 1 fighter owned by the French lost in Bryansk
            Germans win, taking Bryansk from Russians with 21 armour, 2 bombers and 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 28
            Casualties for Germans: 9 armour, 16 artilleries, 2 fighters, 19 infantry and 52 mech_infantrys
            Casualties for Russians: 6 aaGuns, 4 armour, 7 artilleries, 95 infantry, 8 mech_infantrys and 2 tactical_bombers
            Casualties for French: 1 fighter

    Non Combat Move - Germans
        2 mech_infantrys moved from Poland to Belarus
        1 fighter moved from Bryansk to Belarus
        1 aaGun moved from Western Ukraine to Bryansk
        1 bomber moved from Bryansk to Shensi
        1 infantry moved from Kansu to Shensi
        1 mech_infantry moved from Siberia to Korea
        1 fighter moved from Finland to Novgorod
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Holland Belgium to Germany
        2 tactical_bombers moved from Holland Belgium to Western Germany
        1 bomber moved from Bryansk to Novgorod

    Place Units - Germans
        1 armour and 1 mech_infantry placed in Western Ukraine
        Germans undo move 1.
        3 armour placed in Western Ukraine
        1 mech_infantry placed in Novgorod
        1 fighter and 7 infantry placed in Germany

    Turn Complete - Germans
        Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 4
            Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 97 Sea Zone. Rolls: 5,5,1,1,2,1,3,2,4,5,6,4,4,5,3,4
        Germans collect 48 PUs (4 lost to blockades); end with 48 PUs
        Objective Germans 2 Control Novgorod Or Volgograd Or Russia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 53 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Russians regular : -0,50
Germans regular : 16,83
Russians AA : 1,17
British regular : -1,00

Savegame_39672.tsvg

[Avner]

This is the classic battle that turns a game upside down.

The Germans had a poor 60% chance of winning… and in the case with a -90 from TUV… and few surviving tanks…

… there are 20 left… and almost +30 of TUV…

let me think if it’s time to go on or not…

[Avner]

rus13.tsvg

Let’s try it… for now

[aequitas-et-veritas]

Game History

Round: 13

    Purchase Units - Japanese
        Japanese buy 1 carrier, 3 destroyers, 7 infantry and 2 submarines; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 6 SuicideAttackTokens; 

    Combat Move - Japanese
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Malaya to 37 Sea Zone
        1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 37 Sea Zone to 41 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 55 Sea Zone to 41 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 41 Sea Zone to Sumatra
        2 fighters moved from 37 Sea Zone to Sumatra
        1 artillery moved from Paulau Island to 34 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 transport moved from 34 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        1 artillery moved from 21 Sea Zone to Guam
        11 fighters and 6 tactical_bombers moved from 34 Sea Zone to Guam
        1 infantry moved from Novosibirsk to Vologda
              Japanese take Vologda from Russians
        1 infantry moved from Kazakhstan to Samara
              Japanese take Samara from Russians
        1 bomber moved from Shensi to Burma
        1 infantry moved from Shan State to Burma
        1 fighter moved from 37 Sea Zone to Burma
        1 tactical_bomber moved from 34 Sea Zone to Guam
        1 bomber moved from Japan to 21 Sea Zone

    Combat - Japanese
        Battle in 41 Sea Zone
            Japanese attack with 1 submarine and 1 transport
            British defend with 1 transport
                1 transport owned by the British lost in 41 Sea Zone
            Japanese win with 1 submarine and 1 transport remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
            Casualties for British: 1 transport
        Battle in 21 Sea Zone
            Japanese attack with 1 bomber and 1 transport
            ANZAC defend with 1 transport
                1 transport owned by the ANZAC lost in 21 Sea Zone
            Japanese win with 1 bomber and 1 transport remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
            Casualties for ANZAC: 1 transport
        Battle in Sumatra
            Japanese attack with 1 artillery, 2 fighters and 1 infantry
            British defend with 2 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery, 2 fighters and 1 infantry in Sumatra, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1,67 expected hits
                UK_Pacific roll dice for 2 infantry in Sumatra, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Japanese and 1 infantry owned by the British lost in Sumatra
                Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery and 2 fighters in Sumatra, round 3 : 1/3 hits, 1,33 expected hits
                UK_Pacific roll dice for 1 infantry in Sumatra, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 artillery owned by the Japanese and 1 infantry owned by the British lost in Sumatra
            Japanese win with 2 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is -1
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 artillery and 1 infantry
            Casualties for British: 2 infantry
        Battle in Guam
            Japanese attack with 1 artillery, 11 fighters and 7 tactical_bombers
            Americans defend with 1 airfield; ANZAC defend with 1 artillery and 1 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery, 11 fighters and 7 tactical_bombers in Guam, round 2 : 13/19 hits, 10,50 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Guam, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the ANZAC and 1 artillery owned by the ANZAC lost in Guam
            Japanese win, taking Guam from Americans with 1 artillery, 11 fighters and 7 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
            Casualties for ANZAC: 1 artillery and 1 infantry
        Battle in Burma
            Japanese attack with 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 1 infantry
            British defend with 1 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 1 infantry in Burma, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1,33 expected hits
                UK_Pacific roll dice for 1 infantry in Burma, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the British lost in Burma
            Japanese win, taking Burma from UK_Pacific with 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for British: 1 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Japanese
        1 bomber and 1 fighter moved from Burma to Shan State
        1 tactical_bomber moved from 37 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        1 carrier moved from 37 Sea Zone to 41 Sea Zone
        2 fighters moved from Sumatra to 41 Sea Zone
        1 carrier moved from 37 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from French Indo China to Shan State
        1 mech_infantry moved from French Indo China to Szechwan
        1 mech_infantry moved from Szechwan to Sikang
        1 infantry moved from Sikang to Kazakhstan
        1 artillery moved from Sakha to Amur
        1 infantry moved from Soviet Far East to 5 Sea Zone
        1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 5 Sea Zone to 6 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Japan to 6 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 6 Sea Zone to 5 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 5 Sea Zone to Amur
        1 bomber moved from Japan to Philippines
        1 bomber moved from 21 Sea Zone to Philippines
        1 fighter moved from Japan to Philippines
        11 fighters and 7 tactical_bombers moved from Guam to 35 Sea Zone
        2 battleships, 9 carriers, 1 cruiser, 5 destroyers, 6 submarines and 1 transport moved from 34 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        1 mech_infantry moved from French Indo China to Shan State
        1 fighter moved from Shan State to 37 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Philippines to 37 Sea Zone
        2 destroyers and 1 submarine moved from 6 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone

    Place Units - Japanese
        1 carrier placed in 37 Sea Zone
        2 infantry placed in Malaya
        3 infantry placed in French Indo China
        2 infantry placed in Japan
        3 destroyers and 2 submarines placed in 6 Sea Zone

    Turn Complete - Japanese
        Japanese collect 66 PUs; end with 66 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Americans regular : -0,67
Japanese regular : 2,17
UK_Pacific regular : 0,67

Savegame_39672.tsvg

[Avner]

uk13.tsvg

[aequitas-et-veritas]

Game History

Round: 13

    Purchase Units - Italians
        Italians buy 1 infantry; Remaining resources: 2 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Italians
        2 armour moved from Belarus to Rostov
        1 armour moved from Western Ukraine to Rostov
        1 fighter moved from Novgorod to Rostov
        1 mech_infantry moved from Belarus to Rostov

    Combat - Italians
        Battle in Rostov
            Italians attack with 3 armour, 1 fighter and 1 mech_infantry
            Russians defend with 2 infantry
                Italians roll dice for 3 armour, 1 fighter and 1 mech_infantry in Rostov, round 2 : 2/5 hits, 2,17 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 2 infantry in Rostov, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                2 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Rostov
            Italians win, taking Rostov from Russians with 3 armour, 1 fighter and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
            Casualties for Russians: 2 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Italians
        1 fighter moved from Rostov to Western Ukraine
        1 mech_infantry moved from Northern Italy to Romania
        3 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Southern Italy

    Place Units - Italians
        1 infantry placed in Southern Italy

    Turn Complete - Italians
        Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 8
            Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 97 Sea Zone. Rolls: 1,1,6,6,2,1,4,1,5,4,2,5,2,5,3,1
        Italians collect 4 PUs (8 lost to blockades); end with 6 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Italians regular : -0,17
Russians regular : -0,67

Savegame_39672.tsvg

[Avner]

fra13.tsvg

[aequitas-et-veritas]

Game History

Round: 14

    Research Technology - Germans

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans buy 1 fighter, 9 infantry and 4 mech_infantrys; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Germans
        2 infantry moved from Western Germany to Holland Belgium
        2 mech_infantrys moved from Western Germany to Southern France
        2 tactical_bombers moved from Western Germany to Southern France
        2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Germany to Holland Belgium
        1 infantry moved from Archangel to Smolensk
              Germans take Smolensk from Russians
        1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from Yenisey to Yakut S.S.R.
              Germans take Yakut S.S.R. from Russians
        1 bomber moved from Shensi to Russia
        3 armour moved from Western Ukraine to Russia
        21 armour moved from Bryansk to Russia
        1 fighter and 2 mech_infantrys moved from Belarus to Russia
        1 bomber and 1 fighter moved from Novgorod to Russia

    Combat - Germans
        Battle in Holland Belgium
            Germans attack with 2 fighters, 2 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
            British defend with 3 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 2 fighters, 2 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Holland Belgium, round 2 : 1/5 hits, 2,00 expected hits
                British roll dice for 3 infantry in Holland Belgium, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the British lost in Holland Belgium
                Germans roll dice for 2 fighters, 2 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Holland Belgium, round 3 : 1/5 hits, 2,00 expected hits
                British roll dice for 2 infantry in Holland Belgium, round 3 : 1/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Germans and 1 infantry owned by the British lost in Holland Belgium
                Germans roll dice for 2 fighters, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Holland Belgium, round 4 : 1/4 hits, 1,83 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 infantry in Holland Belgium, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the British lost in Holland Belgium
            Germans win, taking Holland Belgium from British with 2 fighters, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
            Casualties for British: 3 infantry
            Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
        Battle in Southern France
            Germans attack with 2 mech_infantrys and 2 tactical_bombers
            Americans defend with 1 factory_minor, 1 harbour and 2 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 2 mech_infantrys and 2 tactical_bombers in Southern France, round 2 : 2/4 hits, 1,33 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 2 infantry in Southern France, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                2 infantry owned by the Americans and 1 mech_infantry owned by the Germans lost in Southern France
            Germans win, taking Southern France from Americans with 1 mech_infantry and 2 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 2
            Casualties for Germans: 1 mech_infantry
            Casualties for Americans: 2 infantry
        Battle in Russia
            Germans attack with 24 armour, 2 bombers, 2 fighters and 2 mech_infantrys
            British defend with 7 fighters; Americans defend with 2 fighters; ANZAC defend with 1 fighter; Russians defend with 1 airfield, 3 artilleries, 1 factory_major, 2 fighters and 14 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 24 armour, 2 bombers, 2 fighters and 2 mech_infantrys in Russia, round 2 : 17/30 hits, 14,67 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 3 artilleries, 12 fighters and 14 infantry in Russia, round 2 : 15/29 hits, 13,67 expected hits
                14 infantry owned by the Russians, 3 artilleries owned by the Russians, 13 armour owned by the Germans and 2 mech_infantrys owned by the Germans lost in Russia
                Germans roll dice for 11 armour, 2 bombers and 2 fighters in Russia, round 3 : 7/15 hits, 7,83 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 12 fighters in Russia, round 3 : 4/12 hits, 8,00 expected hits
                2 fighters owned by the Russians, 4 armour owned by the Germans, 2 fighters owned by the Americans and 3 fighters owned by the British lost in Russia
                Germans roll dice for 7 armour, 2 bombers and 2 fighters in Russia, round 4 : 7/11 hits, 5,83 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 5 fighters in Russia, round 4 : 4/5 hits, 3,33 expected hits
                1 fighter owned by the ANZAC, 4 armour owned by the Germans and 4 fighters owned by the British lost in Russia
            Germans captures 21PUs while taking Russians capital
            Germans converts factory_major into different units
            Germans win, taking Russia from Russians with 3 armour, 2 bombers and 2 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 40
            Casualties for Germans: 21 armour and 2 mech_infantrys
            Casualties for Russians: 3 artilleries, 2 fighters and 14 infantry
            Casualties for Americans: 2 fighters
            Casualties for British: 7 fighters
            Casualties for ANZAC: 1 fighter
        triggerRussiansDestroyPUsGermans: Setting destroysPUs to true for playerAttachment attached to Russians

    Non Combat Move - Germans
        1 bomber moved from Russia to Shensi
        1 infantry moved from Shensi to Szechwan
        1 bomber moved from Russia to Western Ukraine
        1 aaGun moved from Bryansk to Russia
        2 tactical_bombers moved from Southern France to Western Germany
        2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Holland Belgium to Western Germany
        2 infantry moved from Finland to Vyborg
        2 infantry moved from Karelia to Vyborg
        1 mech_infantry moved from Korea to Amur
        1 aaGun moved from Western Ukraine to Bryansk
        2 fighters moved from Russia to Rostov

    Place Units - Germans
        1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry placed in Western Ukraine
        3 infantry placed in Novgorod
        3 mech_infantrys placed in Western Germany
        1 fighter and 2 infantry placed in Germany
        3 infantry placed in Western Germany
        Germans undo move 2.
        Germans undo move 3.
        1 fighter and 2 infantry placed in Novgorod
        1 infantry placed in Germany
        2 infantry placed in Western Germany
        Germans undo move 6.
        2 infantry placed in Germany
        Turning on Edit Mode
        EDIT: Adding units owned by Germans to Vyborg: 2 infantry
        EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Germany: 2 infantry
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode

    Turn Complete - Germans
        Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 4
            Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 97 Sea Zone. Rolls: 1,2,6,2,6,1,4,6,2,6,5,5,3,5,4,1
        Germans collect 56 PUs (4 lost to blockades); end with 77 PUs
        Objective Germans 2 Control Novgorod Or Volgograd Or Russia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 10 PUs; end with 87 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Americans regular : 0,33
Russians regular : -2,00
Germans regular : 0,50
British regular : -1,00

Savegame_39928.tsvg

Edit: two Ger Inf per ferry to Vyborg
1x Ftr from W.Ger to Ger. Berlin

[aequitas-et-veritas]

The 2nd Round was the decisive one this time.
Your Russians rolled four hits under average.
I thought about it for a long time if I should make the attack with a 58% chance.

Bryansk last round was indeed a Turnover and i usually don’t like 60% odds on big battles, but I had to do it since you nicely denied a German sneak into the South.

[Avner]

not our game…

[Avner]

You should attach the correct file

:)

[aequitas-et-veritas]

Here is the file:

Savegame_39672.tsvg

[Avner]

rus14.tsvg

Well… at this point let’s challenge the calculation of probabilities in other battles… :(