L23 OOB Martin (X) vs. Farmboy (L+39)

[farmboy]

@martin I will need scramble orders for 97. Also, I’d like to reconsider US NCMs and move the US fleet in 33 (caroline islands) to 17 (around Iwo Jima) and move the fig in 26 to Midway. It is after the China turn, so if it is too late, that is fair.

I made an error on the US turn in that I was planning on stacking the fleet of Marianas and somehow miscalculated the odds significantly until after I did my move.

[farmboy]

realized I forgot to post the combat move. UK6combat move.tsvg

[farmboy]

I’ll likely think a bit more about the US NCMs in the pacific before doing the UK turn but it won’t effect the UK combat move or the scramble decision in 97.

[Martin]

Thank you, no scrambling.

[farmboy]

@martin should get to this in a moment. I’ll edit after the US NCMs after (assuming you are okay with that), but just wanted to note before that I’ve decided I will stack the US fleet in marianas. I messed up my calculations before the US turn, but still think it is worth the risk. We will see. One additional transport will unload in Marianas and the rest will head back to Hawaii. The tac won’t land with the fleet but head back to Wake Island.

[Martin]

@farmboy it shall be all fine. Do not rush. I can also wait until tomorrow.

[Martin]

I have the slight impression that you are secretly trying to manipulate me towards taking undue risks, LOL

[farmboy]

@martin UK6.tsvg

Lol. No. I get nervous about giving odds like this on the US fleet (I’m calculating 63%) but I think it is the right move here. I initially thought you had worse odds than this when I was planning my turn and than after the turn, I miscalculated again and thought your odds were in the 80% range.

Assuming I’m understanding the odds correctly (which seems to be in doubt of late) this is not a combat I would go for unless I was desperate. There is too much risk it would fail or that in success it would be pyhrric. But there is certainly a risk to me if you go for it and also get good dice, so it still feels hard to offer it.

Game History

Round: 6

    Purchase Units - Americans
        Americans buy 1 artillery, 1 carrier, 1 destroyer, 3 fighters, 1 infantry and 2 submarines; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Americans
        1 bomber moved from Algeria to Malta
        1 armour moved from Morocco to 91 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Gibraltar to 91 Sea Zone
        1 armour, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 91 Sea Zone to 96 Sea Zone
        1 armour and 1 infantry moved from 96 Sea Zone to Malta
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Syria to 98 Sea Zone
        1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 98 Sea Zone to 99 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 99 Sea Zone to Cyprus
        1 fighter moved from Syria to Cyprus
        1 fighter moved from 98 Sea Zone to Cyprus
        2 infantry moved from Syria to 98 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 98 Sea Zone to 99 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 99 Sea Zone to Greece
        1 submarine moved from 10 Sea Zone to 25 Sea Zone
        2 fighters moved from Western United States to 25 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 26 Sea Zone to 23 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from 26 Sea Zone to 23 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Hawaiian Islands to 23 Sea Zone
        3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 33 Sea Zone to 22 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 26 Sea Zone to 46 Sea Zone
        2 fighters moved from 33 Sea Zone to 46 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from Caroline Islands to 33 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 33 Sea Zone to 22 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 22 Sea Zone to Marianas
        1 fighter moved from 33 Sea Zone to 22 Sea Zone

    Combat - Americans
        Battle in Greece
        Battle in 46 Sea Zone
            Americans attack with 2 fighters and 1 submarine
            Japanese defend with 1 destroyer
            Americans win, taking Greece from Italians with 2 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 2
            Casualties for Americans: 1 submarine
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 destroyer
        Battle in 22 Sea Zone
            Americans attack with 4 fighters, 1 tactical_bomber and 1 transport
            Japanese defend with 1 destroyer
            Americans win with 3 fighters, 1 tactical_bomber and 1 transport remaining. Battle score for attacker is -2
            Casualties for Americans: 1 fighter
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 destroyer
        Battle in 23 Sea Zone
            Americans attack with 2 fighters and 1 submarine
            Japanese defend with 1 destroyer
            Americans win with 2 fighters and 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 destroyer
        Battle in 25 Sea Zone
            Americans attack with 2 fighters and 1 submarine
            Japanese defend with 1 destroyer
            Americans win with 2 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 2
            Casualties for Americans: 1 submarine
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 destroyer
        Battle in Cyprus
            Americans attack with 1 artillery, 2 fighters and 1 infantry
            Italians defend with 1 infantry
            Americans win, taking Cyprus from Italians with 1 artillery, 2 fighters and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Italians: 1 infantry
        Battle in Marianas
        Battle in Malta
            Americans attack with 1 armour, 1 bomber and 1 infantry
            Italians defend with 1 infantry
            Americans win, taking Marianas from Japanese, taking Malta from Italians with 1 armour and 1 bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Americans: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Italians: 1 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Americans
        2 fighters moved from 23 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
        3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 22 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
        1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from Marshall Islands to 32 Sea Zone
        1 carrier moved from 26 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
        2 fighters moved from 46 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
        1 carrier and 1 destroyer moved from 10 Sea Zone to 26 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from 25 Sea Zone to 26 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from 25 Sea Zone to Midway
        1 fighter moved from Cyprus to Syria
        1 fighter moved from Cyprus to 98 Sea Zone
        1 bomber moved from Malta to Syria
        1 cruiser and 1 destroyer moved from 98 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
        1 mech_infantry moved from French West Africa to French Equatorial Africa
        1 fighter moved from Nigeria to Gibraltar
        1 fighter moved from Algeria to Gibraltar
        1 mech_infantry moved from Algeria to Libya
        1 transport moved from 91 Sea Zone to 101 Sea Zone
        1 aaGun and 1 infantry moved from Central United States to 101 Sea Zone
        1 aaGun, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 101 Sea Zone to 91 Sea Zone
        1 aaGun and 1 infantry moved from 91 Sea Zone to Gibraltar
        1 tactical_bomber moved from Eastern United States to Gibraltar
        1 infantry moved from French West Africa to 87 Sea Zone
        1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 87 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Algeria to Tunisia
        1 infantry moved from 92 Sea Zone to Algeria
        1 aaGun and 1 infantry moved from Hawaiian Islands to 26 Sea Zone
        1 aaGun, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 26 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
        1 infantry, 1 mech_infantry and 1 transport moved from 32 Sea Zone to 26 Sea Zone
        1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from 26 Sea Zone to Hawaiian Islands
        1 aaGun and 1 infantry moved from 33 Sea Zone to Caroline Islands

    Place Units - Americans
        1 carrier, 1 destroyer and 2 submarines placed in 10 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry placed in Central United States
        1 fighter placed in Eastern United States
        2 fighters placed in Western United States

    Turn Complete - Americans
        Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 2
            Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 97 Sea Zone. Rolls: 6,5,2,1,6,3
        Americans collect 53 PUs (2 lost to blockades); end with 54 PUs
        Objective Americans 1 Homeland: Americans met a national objective for an additional 10 PUs; end with 64 PUs
        Objective Americans 3 Defense Obligations: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 69 PUs
        Objective Americans 2 Outer Territories: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 74 PUs

    Purchase Units - Chinese
        Trigger Chinese Loses Burma Road: Chinese has their production frontier changed to: productionChinese_Burma_Road_Closed
        Chinese buy 2 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Chinese
        2 infantry moved from Tsinghai to Shensi
        1 fighter moved from Tsinghai to Shensi
        1 infantry moved from Suiyuyan to Chahar
              Chinese take Chahar from Japanese

    Combat - Chinese
        Battle in Shensi
            Chinese attack with 1 fighter and 2 infantry
            Japanese defend with 1 artillery
            Chinese win, taking Shensi from Japanese with 1 fighter and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 4
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 artillery

    Non Combat Move - Chinese
        1 fighter moved from Shensi to Kansu

    Place Units - Chinese
        1 infantry placed in Kansu
        1 infantry placed in Chahar
        Chinese undo move 2.
        1 infantry placed in Suiyuyan

    Turn Complete - Chinese
        Chinese collect 6 PUs; end with 6 PUs

    Purchase Units - British
        Turning on Edit Mode
        EDIT: Removing units owned by Americans from 91 Sea Zone: 1 destroyer
        EDIT: Adding units owned by Americans to 92 Sea Zone: 1 destroyer
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
        British buy 1 artillery, 1 fighter, 3 infantry and 3 mech_infantrys; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Purchase Units - UK_Pacific
        UK_Pacific repair damage of 6x factory_major; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 
        UK_Pacific buy nothing; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - British
        1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from India to Burma
        1 fighter moved from India to Burma
        2 infantry moved from Northwest Persia to Caucasus
        5 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Bryansk to Caucasus
        1 tactical_bomber moved from Syria to 97 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from 98 Sea Zone to 97 Sea Zone
        1 bomber moved from Algeria to 97 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from 92 Sea Zone to 97 Sea Zone
        2 fighters moved from Gibraltar to 97 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 92 Sea Zone to 97 Sea Zone
              British take 93 Sea Zone from Italians
        1 destroyer moved from 92 Sea Zone to 97 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 98 Sea Zone to 96 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 96 Sea Zone to 97 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer and 3 submarines moved from 98 Sea Zone to 99 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer and 3 submarines moved from 99 Sea Zone to 97 Sea Zone

    Combat - British
        Battle in 97 Sea Zone
            British attack with 1 bomber, 2 destroyers, 4 fighters, 5 submarines and 1 tactical_bomber
            Italians defend with 1 battleship, 2 cruisers, 1 destroyer and 1 submarine
            Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the Italians
            British win, taking 97 Sea Zone from Neutral with 1 bomber, 4 fighters, 5 submarines and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 42
            Casualties for British: 2 destroyers
            Casualties for Italians: 1 battleship, 2 cruisers, 1 destroyer and 1 submarine
        Battle in Burma
            British attack with 1 artillery, 1 fighter and 3 infantry
            Japanese defend with 1 artillery and 1 mech_infantry
            British win, taking Burma from Japanese with 1 artillery, 1 fighter and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 5
            Casualties for British: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 artillery and 1 mech_infantry
        Battle in Caucasus
            British attack with 5 fighters, 2 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
            Germans defend with 1 mech_infantry
            British win, taking Caucasus from Germans with 5 fighters, 2 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 4
            Casualties for Germans: 1 mech_infantry

    Non Combat Move - British
        1 infantry moved from Trans-Jordan to 98 Sea Zone
        1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 98 Sea Zone to 81 Sea Zone
        1 artillery moved from Anglo Egyptian Sudan to 81 Sea Zone
        1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 81 Sea Zone to 99 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 99 Sea Zone to Greece
        1 aaGun, 1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Algeria to 92 Sea Zone
        1 aaGun, 1 artillery, 2 infantry and 2 transports moved from 92 Sea Zone to 99 Sea Zone
        1 bomber moved from 97 Sea Zone to Trans-Jordan
        1 armour moved from Tobruk to Egypt
        1 artillery moved from Algeria to Tunisia
        1 infantry moved from Tunisia to Libya
        1 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from Tunisia to Tobruk
        1 carrier, 1 cruiser and 1 fighter moved from 98 Sea Zone to 99 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from 97 Sea Zone to 99 Sea Zone
        1 aaGun, 1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from 99 Sea Zone to Greece
        2 fighters moved from United Kingdom to Gibraltar
        1 destroyer moved from 106 Sea Zone to 91 Sea Zone
        2 artilleries moved from Northwest Persia to Persia
        1 infantry moved from Iraq to Persia
        1 infantry moved from Trans-Jordan to Iraq
        2 infantry moved from Syria to Iraq
        1 infantry moved from French Central Africa to French Equatorial Africa
        1 destroyer moved from 80 Sea Zone to 81 Sea Zone
        1 mech_infantry moved from Persia to Eastern Persia
        1 fighter moved from Burma to India
        1 aaGun moved from India to Burma
        1 carrier moved from 92 Sea Zone to 99 Sea Zone
        2 fighters moved from 97 Sea Zone to 99 Sea Zone
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 97 Sea Zone to Greece
        2 fighters moved from Caucasus to Greece
        3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Caucasus to Eastern Persia
        1 battleship moved from 92 Sea Zone to 99 Sea Zone
        1 cruiser moved from 92 Sea Zone to 91 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Tobruk to Alexandria

    Place Units - British
        1 fighter and 1 infantry placed in United Kingdom
        1 artillery and 2 infantry placed in Egypt
        3 mech_infantrys placed in Union of South Africa

    Turn Complete - British
        British collect 34 PUs; end with 34 PUs
        Objective British 1 Original: British met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 39 PUs

    Turn Complete - UK_Pacific
        Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 3
            Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 39 Sea Zone. Rolls: 4,4,4,3,4
        UK_Pacific collect 3 PUs (3 lost to blockades); end with 3 PUs

[farmboy]

@martin do check that my edits are all correct. I think so, but good to be sure.

[farmboy]

they don’t show up in the summary I realize, but if you open the game history it should come up.

[farmboy]

@martin I also should note that I should have asked for casualties on round 1 in 97. You could have kept the destroyer instead of the Battleship and since I had 5 subs, that was probably the better move. But then on round 2 all my subs and your battleship missed so I thought it became moot.

[Martin]

39778 Round 06 Italy.tsvg

The Russians apparently has a sober day

Game History

Round: 6

    Purchase Units - Italians
        Italians buy 5 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Italians
        3 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from Rostov to Ukraine
        1 bomber moved from Romania to Ukraine
        1 tactical_bomber moved from Southern Italy to Ukraine

    Combat - Italians
        Battle in Ukraine
            Italians attack with 3 armour, 1 bomber, 1 mech_infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
            Russians defend with 2 artilleries, 1 factory_minor and 4 infantry
                Italians roll dice for 3 armour, 1 bomber, 1 mech_infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Ukraine, round 2 : 3/6 hits, 3,00 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 2 artilleries and 4 infantry in Ukraine, round 2 : 4/6 hits, 2,00 expected hits
                3 infantry owned by the Russians, 1 mech_infantry owned by the Italians and 3 armour owned by the Italians lost in Ukraine
            1 tactical_bomber owned by the Italians and 1 bomber owned by the Italians retreated
            Russians win with 2 artilleries and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -13
            Casualties for Italians: 3 armour and 1 mech_infantry
            Casualties for Russians: 3 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Italians
        1 bomber moved from Ukraine to Southern Italy
        1 aaGun and 4 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Southern Italy
        1 artillery and 5 infantry moved from Bulgaria to Yugoslavia
        2 infantry moved from Normandy Bordeaux to France
        1 artillery moved from France to Northern Italy
        1 aaGun moved from Western Germany to Northern Italy
        1 tactical_bomber moved from Ukraine to Rostov

    Place Units - Italians
        3 infantry placed in Southern Italy
        2 infantry placed in Northern Italy

    Turn Complete - Italians
        Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 6
            Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 97 Sea Zone. Rolls: 1,3,1,5,4,6,1,6,6,5
        Italians collect 6 PUs (6 lost to blockades); end with 6 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Italians regular : 0,00
Russians regular : 2,00

[farmboy]

@martin Fre6.tsvg

Game History

Round: 6

    Purchase Units - ANZAC
        ANZAC buy 1 armour and 2 mech_infantrys; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 

    Combat Move - ANZAC
        1 submarine moved from 62 Sea Zone to 34 Sea Zone
        2 fighters moved from Caroline Islands to 34 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from 22 Sea Zone to 34 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Caroline Islands to 33 Sea Zone
        1 artillery moved from Caroline Islands to 33 Sea Zone
        1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 33 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 42 Sea Zone to Java

    Combat - ANZAC
        Battle in Java
        Battle in 34 Sea Zone
            ANZAC attack with 3 fighters and 1 submarine
            Japanese defend with 1 destroyer
                ANZAC roll dice for 1 submarine in 34 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Japanese roll dice for 1 destroyer in 34 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 destroyer owned by the Japanese and 1 submarine owned by the ANZAC lost in 34 Sea Zone
            ANZAC win, taking Java from Japanese with 3 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 2
            Casualties for ANZAC: 1 submarine
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 destroyer

    Non Combat Move - ANZAC
        3 fighters moved from 34 Sea Zone to 22 Sea Zone
        1 cruiser and 1 submarine moved from 33 Sea Zone to 22 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from New South Wales to Queensland

    Place Units - ANZAC
        1 armour and 2 mech_infantrys placed in New South Wales

    Turn Complete - ANZAC
        ANZAC collect 14 PUs; end with 15 PUs
        Objective ANZAC 2 Control Strategic Islands: ANZAC met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 20 PUs

    Combat Move - French

    Non Combat Move - French
        1 infantry moved from Anglo Egyptian Sudan to Egypt
        3 infantry moved from Tunisia to Libya
        1 destroyer moved from 80 Sea Zone to 81 Sea Zone

    Turn Complete - French

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Japanese regular : 0.67
ANZAC regular : 0.67

[Martin]

Apologies - it does not stop. As my next turn (Germany) will take some time, I would like to push forward one more day and have a look on Friday evening.

[farmboy]

@martin all good

[Martin]

Do you intercept from Russia? How?

39632 Round 09 - Germany.tsvg

[farmboy]

@martin no intercept

[farmboy]

@martin also, if you ever have an equal number of interceptors to the escorts I have, feel free to assume no intercept. I can imagine there might be the rare circumstance where I would still choose to intercept, but we can safely do it after without affecting the bombing run.

[farmboy]

@farmboy also, the german turn posted is from a different game. Its fine for the decision as I could see from the map you posted.

[Martin]

Thank you, and sorry for this. For the good order I post the good saved game before launching the battles.

39778 Round 07 Germany - combat.tsvg