L23 Harry X - Gamerman L+18 BM Playoff

[gamerman01]

Oh, but a 0/4 and 3/3 in 97, that is crazy. What a wacky turn. Are the Germans afraid to air-strike 97 now I wonder? :hushed:

[gamerman01]

And that’s Vichy? On a 14% chance?

OK I totally forgot about Vichy once again and got absolutely ambushed in an extremely dramatic way, but why in the WORLD didn’t you take at least 2 air at Normandy?

Great luck in 97 certainly helps a lot, BUT
I’ll hold my tongue now.

[gamerman01]

I should have learned from the last time, I think it was a close call, but I didn’t.

[gamerman01]

With that result in 97 I’ll just have to pretend you sent those 2 air at Normandy. That works for me.

[gamerman01]

Here’s French 1, what’s left of them.

F1.tsvg

[gamerman01]

Change of subject -
I think I found that the Triple A battle calculator is not doing AAA guns correctly.

For example, you have
3 INF, 1 ARM, 9 FTR vs
2 INF, 9 FTR

Triple A says 47/50

Exhange the 2 infantry for 2 AA
Triple A says 56/41

That can’t be right. The defender should have a better chance with 2 AA than 2 infantry because in the first round of battle, the 2 defending units are 99.9% chance to be destroyed.
But 2 AAA has 6 points of defense power while 2 infantry only has 4. Furthermore, the AAA of course is taking down planes and those planes never even get to roll, while any defending infantry hits would be destroying attacking infantry only after the attacking infantry roll. Yes, that’s way off. I’ll do more testing.

[gamerman01]

A simpler one.

3 INF, 3 FTR v 5 INF
Triple A says 82/16

v 4 INF, 1 AA
Triple A says 88/10

No wonder some people undervalue AA.
A different calculator says 73/25, which is much different than 88/10.
Of course the AA gun instead of the infantry in this example would be better - 3 separate rolls of 16.7% chance directly at planes that are destroyed immediately (and could hit all 3), vs 1 roll of 33% chance that will hit 1 infantry after the infantry has fired. The infantry is almost certain to be killed in one round, so will not roll again.

Pretty big weakness of the Triple A calculator there. I’ll test a big German/Russian battle…

[gamerman01]

Uh oh. I think I found a big problem.

My Triple A calculator says that if you attack 40 AAA and 1 infantry with 120 bombers, you will only lose 1/3 of one bomber (for the infantry roll).

My calculator isn’t rolling for AAA AT ALL in making the calculations. Can you tell if you have the same problem?

(French move is posted below)

[gamerman01]

OK, I don’t know, but sometimes my calculator is working correctly with AA and most times it’s ignoring the AA roll entirely. You should test yours out. You can just do X number of bombers against X number of AA and see if it’s right.

I was doing calcs on Java and the engine said I had a better defense with 2 infantry than with infantry, AA, but that’s definitely wrong.

[elche]

Hi Gamerman,

sorry for delay. A lot of work last days.
I tried out bc with your excamples.

First fight.
For example, you have
3 INF, 1 ARM, 9 FTR vs
2 INF, 9 FTR

Triple A says 47/50

Exhange the 2 infantry for 2 AA
Triple A says 56/41

I agree first round 47/50 but after I change 2 inf into 2 AA my highest result for attacker was 42/58 and average after 30 times is under 40760.

[elche]

The same for next fight.
3 INF, 3 FTR v 5 INF
Triple A says 82/16

v 4 INF, 1 AA
Triple A says 88/10

I agree first result 82/16 but after switch inf into AA is my result in average 75/25

Did we use different bc ?

[elche]

Last fight
if you attack 40 AAA and 1 infantry with 120 bombers, you will only lose 1/3 of one bomber (for the infantry roll).

If I try , I will lose every time between 20-21 bomber.( is average with 120 AAGun shots) + 1 for inf. And is only 1 round
Maybe something wrong with the configuration of bc.

[elche]

You write: I was doing calcs on Java and the engine said I had a better defense with 2 infantry than with infantry, AA, but that’s definitely wrong.
You are definitely right with this.

[elche]

The results from my bc I think are right. I proof it on paper and its right.

[elche]

I tried the move with italian tank and most times with bomber or fig the last 5-6 games and never works. A very good player explains me thats more important to take France with all units and its better to play non-Vichy game. After you tell me that, I try this italian move. If I look on the map now I like what I see with the french :blush:
Did you scramble sz109 ?
cob-ger2- (3).tsvg

[gamerman01]

@elche said in L23 Harry X - Gamerman L+18 BM Playoff:

Hi Gamerman,

sorry for delay. A lot of work last days.
I tried out bc with your excamples.

No problem, I was just wondering if I buried my own file and you didn’t know it was your turn. All good.

First fight.
For example, you have
3 INF, 1 ARM, 9 FTR vs
2 INF, 9 FTR

Triple A says 47/50

Exhange the 2 infantry for 2 AA
Triple A says 56/41

I agree first round 47/50 but after I change 2 inf into 2 AA my highest result for attacker was 42/58 and average after 30 times is under 40760.

Thank you! So I’m not the only one with a Triple A Calc that sometimes doesn’t even count the AA shots at all. That’s something we need to be careful with in the future.

[gamerman01]

@elche said in L23 Harry X - Gamerman L+18 BM Playoff:

I tried the move with italian tank and most times with bomber or fig the last 5-6 games and never works. A very good player explains me thats more important to take France with all units and its better to play non-Vichy game.

I agree totally with that. Or are you referring to me? :face_with_cowboy_hat:

After you tell me that, I try this italian move. If I look on the map now I like what I see with the french :blush:

No doubt. What I’m asking is if you knew how big that fight was, and if so, why didn’t you support it with air? Because it was only 14% with a lone tank. Very lucky, friend. Hard for me to take :face_with_head_bandage:

Did you scramble sz109 ?
cob-ger2- (3).tsvg

[gamerman01]

That’s not exactly what I thought you’d take to 109, but I’m not saying your move is bad, at all.

Yes, scramble 3 fighters

Man is it going to be hard to recover from that Vichy. I’m lucky about 97, or it would be even worse, obviously.
Don’t let up at all, you know I will be playing hard as always! :grimacing: I hope the dice aren’t too extreme either way in 109 - has the potential to tip the game one way or the other again!

[elche]

The attack to N/B only with tank because I needed all planes for sz97, what was a desaster and last games it never works and I loose fig or bomber. Depends on a attack to sz97 or not.
But sz109 is now a better move :blush: I hoped for 2 hits and I got 2 hits. At least 1 round without RAF in Europe.
But I did not expect you will scramble.
But you save your transport in sz110.
Game History

Round: 2

    Research Technology - Germans

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans buy 1 armour, 2 artilleries, 1 destroyer, 1 fighter, 2 infantry, 6 mech_infantrys and 1 submarine; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Politics - Germans
        Trigger Vichy France Has Occurred: Setting switch to false for conditionAttachment_French_Territory_May_Turn_Vichy_Switch attached to French

    Combat Move - Germans
        1 unit repaired.
        2 bombers, 2 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers moved from Western Germany to 109 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 112 Sea Zone to 109 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Western Germany to Holland Belgium
        1 artillery moved from France to Holland Belgium
        1 artillery moved from France to Holland Belgium
        1 artillery moved from France to Holland Belgium
        1 armour and 4 infantry moved from Bulgaria to Greece
        1 armour moved from Yugoslavia to Greece
        1 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from France to Holland Belgium

    Combat - Germans
        British scrambles 3 units out of United Kingdom to defend against the attack in 109 Sea Zone
        Battle in Greece
            Germans attack with 2 armour and 4 infantry
            Neutral_Allies defend with 4 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 2 armour and 4 infantry in Greece, round 2 : 3/6 hits, 1,67 expected hits
                Neutral_Allies roll dice for 4 infantry in Greece, round 2 : 2/4 hits, 1,33 expected hits
                3 infantry owned by the Neutral_Allies and 2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Greece
                Germans roll dice for 2 armour and 2 infantry in Greece, round 3 : 2/4 hits, 1,33 expected hits
                Neutral_Allies roll dice for 1 infantry in Greece, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Neutral_Allies lost in Greece
            Germans win, taking Greece from Neutral_Allies with 2 armour and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
            Casualties for Germans: 2 infantry
            Casualties for Neutral_Allies: 4 infantry
        Battle in Holland Belgium
            Germans attack with 1 armour, 3 artilleries, 1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
            British defend with 1 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 3 artilleries, 1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry in Holland Belgium, round 2 : 3/6 hits, 2,17 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 infantry in Holland Belgium, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Germans and 1 infantry owned by the British lost in Holland Belgium
            Germans win, taking Holland Belgium from British with 1 armour, 3 artilleries and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
            Casualties for British: 1 infantry
        Battle in 109 Sea Zone
            Germans attack with 2 bombers, 1 destroyer, 2 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers
            British defend with 1 battleship, 3 fighters and 1 submarine
                Germans roll dice for 2 bombers, 1 destroyer, 2 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers in 109 Sea Zone, round 2 : 5/7 hits, 4,00 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 submarine in 109 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 battleship and 3 fighters in 109 Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/4 hits, 2,67 expected hits
                1 destroyer owned by the Germans, 1 tactical_bomber owned by the Germans, 1 submarine owned by the British, 1 battleship owned by the British and 3 fighters owned by the British lost in 109 Sea Zone
            Germans win with 2 bombers, 2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 37
            Casualties for Germans: 1 destroyer and 1 tactical_bomber
            Casualties for British: 1 battleship, 3 fighters and 1 submarine

    Non Combat Move - Germans
        Trigger Germans Occupies Southern France Fleet Scuddle: has removed 1 cruiser and 1 destroyer owned by Neutral_Axis in 93 Sea Zone
        Trigger Germany Occupies Algeria Army Disband: has removed 1 infantry owned by Neutral_Axis in Algeria
        Trigger Germany Syria France Army Disband: has removed 1 infantry owned by Neutral_Axis in Syria
        Trigger Germany Occupies French West Africa Army Disband: has removed 1 infantry owned by Neutral_Axis in French West Africa
        Trigger Germans Occupies Southern France Army Disband: has removed 1 artillery and 1 infantry owned by Neutral_Axis in Southern France
        Trigger Germany Occupies Morocco Army Disband: has removed 1 infantry owned by Neutral_Axis in Morocco
        2 bombers moved from 109 Sea Zone to Western Germany
        1 tactical_bomber moved from 109 Sea Zone to Normandy Bordeaux
        2 fighters moved from 109 Sea Zone to Normandy Bordeaux
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Southern Italy to Gibraltar
        1 mech_infantry moved from France to Southern France
              Germans take Southern France from Neutral_Axis
        2 artilleries and 6 infantry moved from Yugoslavia to Romania
        2 aaGuns moved from Slovakia Hungary to Romania
        2 artilleries moved from Slovakia Hungary to Romania
        8 infantry moved from Slovakia Hungary to Romania
        1 artillery moved from Germany to Poland
        1 infantry moved from Germany to Poland
        3 artilleries and 1 infantry moved from Germany to Slovakia Hungary
        5 armour and 2 mech_infantrys moved from France to Germany
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Norway to Finland
        1 aaGun moved from Western Germany to France

    Place Units - Germans
        1 destroyer and 1 submarine placed in 112 Sea Zone
        1 fighter placed in Western Germany
        1 artillery and 1 infantry placed in Western Germany
        Germans undo move 3.
        1 infantry placed in Western Germany
        1 infantry placed in Western Germany
        1 armour, 2 artilleries and 6 mech_infantrys placed in Germany
        Trigger Germans Occupies Southern France Army Disband Facilities: has removed 1 factory_minor and 1 harbour owned by Neutral_Axis in Southern France
        Trigger Germany Occupies Southern France Facilities: Germans has 1 factory_minor and 1 harbour placed in Southern France

    Turn Complete - Germans
        Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 0
            Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 97 Sea Zone. Rolls: 5,5,6,4
        Germans collect 44 PUs; end with 44 PUs
        Trigger Germans 5 Swedish Iron Ore: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 49 PUs
        Objective Germans 1 Trade with Russia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 54 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Neutral_Allies regular : 0,33
Germans regular : 3,83
British regular : -0,17

ger2- (3).tsvg

[gamerman01]

109 is a big disappointment given your 5 hits in the first round.
Greece helps take the sting out a little bit! Just a little!

Need to keep clawing up the cliff. 6 UK aircraft lost on I1 and G2 - very bad