L22 elche (x) vs Gamerman01 (+18) BM4

[gamerman01]

Thanks for politely not assuming it’s ok, but yes I’m totally fine with that
You did come away with a couple planes more than according to the Triple A battle calc, but I think it was time you got slightly favorable dice. The Germans hardly fought back on the Russian turn

You caught me on a rare mistake, I think I missed the 2 yellow bombers! Again, well played. Now for the USA to try to build back from the rubble

[gamerman01]

Hm, looking at the history instead of dice e-mails, it looks like it was very fair dice, with a very slight edge to you.

I consider myself lucky because I exposed myself to dice and didn’t get hit hard by them. That is, I gave the dice a chance to punish me and didn’t get hit much harder than average.

Well, game on!

[elche]

Yes the battle was normal.
I have to play well because I see in the game that you are a very good player.

[gamerman01]

UK6.tsvg

[elche]

Game History

Round: 6

    Purchase Units - Italians
        Italians buy 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 submarine; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Italians
        1 submarine moved from 97 Sea Zone to 98 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Southern Italy to 98 Sea Zone
        1 armour moved from Tobruk to Tunisia
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Libya to Tunisia
        1 fighter moved from Tobruk to Tunisia

    Combat - Italians
        Battle in 98 Sea Zone
            Italians attack with 1 fighter and 1 submarine
            British defend with 1 cruiser
                Italians roll dice for 1 submarine in 98 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                Italians roll dice for 1 fighter in 98 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 cruiser in 98 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                1 submarine owned by the Italians lost in 98 Sea Zone
            1 fighter owned by the Italians retreated
            British win with 1 cruiser remaining. Battle score for attacker is -6
            Casualties for Italians: 1 submarine
        Battle in Tunisia
            Italians attack with 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 fighter and 1 infantry
            British defend with 1 armour and 2 infantry; French defend with 3 infantry
                Italians roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 fighter and 1 infantry in Tunisia, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1,67 expected hits
                French roll dice for 1 armour and 5 infantry in Tunisia, round 2 : 3/6 hits, 2,17 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the French, 1 artillery owned by the Italians, 1 infantry owned by the Italians and 1 armour owned by the Italians lost in Tunisia
            1 fighter owned by the Italians retreated
            French win with 1 armour and 4 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -10
            Casualties for Italians: 1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 infantry
            Casualties for French: 1 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Italians
        1 fighter moved from Tunisia to Libya
        1 fighter moved from 98 Sea Zone to Greece
        1 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Southern France

    Place Units - Italians
        1 submarine placed in 97 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry placed in Northern Italy

    Turn Complete - Italians
        Italians collect 12 PUs; end with 12 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

French regular : 0,83
Italians regular : -1,50
British regular : 0,50

ita6 (2).tsvg

[gamerman01]

F6.tsvg

[elche]

Game History

Round: 7

    Research Technology - Germans

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans buy 1 armour, 3 artilleries, 1 fighter, 3 infantry, 4 mech_infantrys and 1 tactical_bomber; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Germans
        1 infantry moved from Archangel to Vologda
              Germans take Vologda from Russians
        1 armour moved from Novgorod to Nenetsia
              Germans take Nenetsia from Russians
        1 artillery moved from Novgorod to Belarus
        3 infantry moved from Novgorod to Belarus
        1 artillery moved from Novgorod to Belarus
        3 infantry moved from Eastern Poland to Western Ukraine
        2 artilleries moved from Eastern Poland to Western Ukraine
        4 infantry moved from Bessarabia to Ukraine
        3 artilleries moved from Bessarabia to Ukraine

    Combat - Germans
        Battle in Ukraine
            Germans attack with 3 artilleries and 4 infantry
            Russians defend with 1 aaGun, 1 factory_minor and 5 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 3 artilleries and 4 infantry in Ukraine, round 2 : 3/7 hits, 2,17 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 aaGun and 5 infantry in Ukraine, round 2 : 0/5 hits, 1,67 expected hits
                2 infantry owned by the Russians and 1 aaGun owned by the Russians lost in Ukraine
                Germans roll dice for 3 artilleries and 4 infantry in Ukraine, round 3 : 3/7 hits, 2,17 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 3 infantry in Ukraine, round 3 : 1/3 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                3 infantry owned by the Russians and 1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Ukraine
            Germans win, taking Ukraine from Russians with 3 artilleries and 3 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 17
            Casualties for Russians: 1 aaGun and 5 infantry
            Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
        Battle in Western Ukraine
            Germans attack with 2 artilleries and 3 infantry
            Russians defend with 1 aaGun and 3 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 2 artilleries and 3 infantry in Western Ukraine, round 2 : 1/5 hits, 1,50 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 aaGun and 3 infantry in Western Ukraine, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                2 infantry owned by the Germans and 1 aaGun owned by the Russians lost in Western Ukraine
                Germans roll dice for 2 artilleries and 1 infantry in Western Ukraine, round 3 : 2/3 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 3 infantry in Western Ukraine, round 3 : 0/3 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                2 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Western Ukraine
                Germans roll dice for 2 artilleries and 1 infantry in Western Ukraine, round 4 : 1/3 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Western Ukraine, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Western Ukraine
            Germans win, taking Western Ukraine from Russians with 2 artilleries and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
            Casualties for Germans: 2 infantry
            Casualties for Russians: 1 aaGun and 3 infantry
        Battle in Belarus
            Germans attack with 2 artilleries and 3 infantry
            Russians defend with 1 aaGun, 1 artillery and 2 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 2 artilleries and 3 infantry in Belarus, round 2 : 2/5 hits, 1,50 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 aaGun, 1 artillery and 2 infantry in Belarus, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians, 1 infantry owned by the Germans and 1 aaGun owned by the Russians lost in Belarus
                Germans roll dice for 2 artilleries and 2 infantry in Belarus, round 3 : 1/4 hits, 1,33 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Belarus, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Belarus
                Germans roll dice for 2 artilleries and 2 infantry in Belarus, round 4 : 1/4 hits, 1,33 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 artillery in Belarus, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 artillery owned by the Russians lost in Belarus
            Germans win, taking Belarus from Russians with 2 artilleries and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 12
            Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Russians: 1 aaGun, 1 artillery and 2 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Germans
        1 infantry moved from Novgorod to Archangel
        1 aaGun moved from Bessarabia to Ukraine
        1 aaGun moved from Baltic States to Belarus
        3 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from Poland to Eastern Poland
        2 mech_infantrys moved from Germany to France
        1 armour and 4 mech_infantrys moved from Germany to Western Germany
        1 fighter moved from Eastern Poland to 112 Sea Zone
        1 tactical_bomber moved from 112 Sea Zone to Eastern Poland
        1 infantry moved from Bulgaria to Romania
        1 infantry moved from Bessarabia to Ukraine
        1 infantry moved from Baltic States to Belarus

    Place Units - Germans
        2 artilleries and 1 infantry placed in France
        1 armour, 1 fighter, 4 mech_infantrys and 1 tactical_bomber placed in Western Germany
        1 artillery and 2 infantry placed in Novgorod

    Turn Complete - Germans
        Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 1
            Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 93 Sea Zone. Rolls: 1,5
        Germans collect 52 PUs (1 lost to blockades); end with 52 PUs
        Trigger Germans 5 Swedish Iron Ore: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 57 PUs
        Objective Germans 2 Control Novgorod Or Volgograd Or Russia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 62 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Russians regular : -3,00
Germans regular : 2,00

g7 (1).tsvg

[gamerman01]

Well that makes up for the R6 luck - I won’t feel bad about it any more :+1:

[elche]

Thanks for doing the ranking very fast.
You feel bad because of the landing in N/B ?

[gamerman01]

Only at first. But I’m really glad you built nothing on Germany. Just at a glance, I will probably use 2 USA ground units to take S. France for 8 IPC’s, probably take Holland with ANZAC, but before that I will see what the trade will be if I stack Normandy as much as possible. It would be great for me if you send mech from Germany to Normandy.

Yes, at a glance I may be loading everything I have onto Normandy and maybe not even taking S France, just blitzing Holland will give US + 8, but of course I will run the numbers on USA turn.

Thanks for asking, I enjoy answering questions

[gamerman01]

OK so now I ran the numbers (of course)
I don’t have to put many planes there and you have 0% on Normandy this turn. So no, no regrets for landing and loading ANZ and US transports… :smirk:

[gamerman01]

And you are so welcome for ranking updates -
I actually enjoy adjusting them for every finished game that gets reported.
I also like trying to decide how accurate I think they are.
I am very pleased that in the playoffs the higher seed almost always wins, so I think the ranking system is quite accurate.

[gamerman01]

R7.tsvg

[elche]

Looks like 1944 for Germany. DDay was successfull, Volgograd is far away, Armygroup Middle is destroyed and Red Army will attack german Mainland. I need Wunderwaffen (Miracle weapons) or help from Japan.

Game History

Round: 7

    Purchase Units - Japanese
        Japanese buy 1 artillery, 1 destroyer, 1 fighter, 2 infantry, 3 mech_infantrys and 2 tactical_bombers; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 6 SuicideAttackTokens; 

    Combat Move - Japanese
        1 fighter moved from 46 Sea Zone to 41 Sea Zone
        1 tactical_bomber moved from Borneo to 41 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 6 Sea Zone to 25 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from 6 Sea Zone to 25 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Japan to 25 Sea Zone
        1 mech_infantry moved from Shantung to Hunan
        1 infantry moved from Anhwe to Hunan
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Jehol to Hunan
        1 fighter moved from Jehol to Hunan

    Combat - Japanese
        Battle in Hunan
            Japanese attack with 2 fighters, 1 infantry, 1 mech_infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
            Chinese defend with 2 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 2 fighters, 1 infantry, 1 mech_infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Hunan, round 2 : 1/5 hits, 2,00 expected hits
                Chinese roll dice for 2 infantry in Hunan, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Japanese and 1 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Hunan
                Japanese roll dice for 2 fighters, 1 mech_infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Hunan, round 3 : 1/4 hits, 1,83 expected hits
                Chinese roll dice for 1 infantry in Hunan, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Hunan
            Japanese win, taking Hunan from Chinese with 2 fighters, 1 mech_infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Chinese: 2 infantry
        Battle in 41 Sea Zone
            Japanese attack with 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber
            French defend with 1 destroyer
                Japanese roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber in 41 Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 1,17 expected hits
                French roll dice for 1 destroyer in 41 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 destroyer owned by the French lost in 41 Sea Zone
            Japanese win with 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
            Casualties for French: 1 destroyer
        Battle in 25 Sea Zone
            Japanese attack with 2 fighters and 1 submarine
            Americans defend with 1 destroyer
                Japanese roll dice for 1 submarine in 25 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                Japanese roll dice for 2 fighters in 25 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 destroyer in 25 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                Japanese roll dice for 1 submarine in 25 Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 destroyer in 25 Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 destroyer owned by the Americans lost in 25 Sea Zone
            Japanese win with 2 fighters and 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
            Casualties for Americans: 1 destroyer

    Non Combat Move - Japanese
        2 fighters moved from 25 Sea Zone to 6 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 6 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        2 carriers moved from 46 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        1 carrier moved from 46 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        2 battleships moved from 46 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        2 cruisers moved from 46 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 41 Sea Zone to Sumatra
        2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 46 Sea Zone to Java
        1 transport moved from 5 Sea Zone to 6 Sea Zone
        2 artilleries and 2 infantry moved from Amur to Ulaanbaatar
        2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Hunan to Kiangsu
        1 artillery moved from Anhwe to Kiangsu
        1 aaGun moved from Anhwe to Kiangsu
        1 infantry moved from Shantung to Anhwe
        1 mech_infantry moved from Shantung to Kiangsu
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 46 Sea Zone to Borneo

    Place Units - Japanese
        1 destroyer placed in 6 Sea Zone
        1 fighter and 2 tactical_bombers placed in Japan
        3 mech_infantrys placed in Kiangsu
        1 artillery and 2 infantry placed in Shantung
        Japanese undo move 4.
        Japanese undo move 3.
        1 infantry and 2 mech_infantrys placed in Shantung
        1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry placed in Kiangsu

    Turn Complete - Japanese
        Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 3
            Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 43 Sea Zone. Rolls: 3,6
        Japanese collect 50 PUs (3 lost to blockades); end with 50 PUs
        Objective Japanese 6 Home Islands: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 53 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Chinese regular : 0,00
Americans regular : -0,67
French regular : -0,33
Japanese regular : -1,67

jap7 (2).tsvg

[gamerman01]

:) I enjoy all comments, and not just when I’m winning.

I’d like to share a tip with you that I almost never share because I think some people would think it’s weird or stupid.

A long time ago I discovered a very good indicator of whether you are winning or not. Every round I play, for several years, I track what the total unit value (in the players tab) is at the end of the UK turn.

No matter what round it is, this measurement seems to be quite accurate. Compare the total unit value (TUV) of the Axis to the Allies at the end of the UK turn. In all my experience, if the Allies are ahead by more than 500, they are winning. If the TUV difference is less than 400, the Axis are probably winning. Between 400 and 500, you have a tight and competitive game. Of course, if one side makes better moves and/or has better dice for a round, it can be turned around. And of course this is not a fail-proof metric, but I’ve rarely seen it fail.

If you take a look at some games, maybe even some of your past games, it would be interesting what you might see.

[gamerman01]

I continue to wonder if the China garrison rule is too harsh on the Axis.

[gamerman01]

You’re right, it does look like 1944. Except for that rocking German fleet and pretty big Luftwaffe :hushed:

And in the Pacific theater, it’s closer to mid-December 1941 I think…

[gamerman01]

UK7.tsvg

[elche]

You are right. I like statistics too. I did it with football rankings as child, need it for exchange trades and sometimes for work.
I wont look for TUV in my bad games only in the good ones.
And Martin and I are happy to find people like playing A&A.
We thought we are crazy to like this game because nobody knows and plays it in Germany.

In the Pacific you should buy one more ac to have correct number for the battle of Midway. I hope for an unhistorical victory.

[elche]

Game History

Round: 7

    Purchase Units - Italians
        Italians buy 1 fighter; Remaining resources: 2 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Italians
        1 submarine moved from 97 Sea Zone to 99 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Southern Italy to 99 Sea Zone

    Combat - Italians
        Battle in 99 Sea Zone
            Italians attack with 1 fighter and 1 submarine
            British defend with 1 cruiser and 2 transports
                Italians roll dice for 1 submarine in 99 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                Italians roll dice for 1 fighter in 99 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 cruiser and 2 transports in 99 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                1 cruiser owned by the British and 1 submarine owned by the Italians lost in 99 Sea Zone
                2 transports owned by the British lost in 99 Sea Zone
            Italians win with 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 20
            Casualties for Italians: 1 submarine
            Casualties for British: 1 cruiser and 2 transports

    Non Combat Move - Italians
        1 fighter moved from 99 Sea Zone to Southern Italy
        2 infantry moved from Bulgaria to Yugoslavia
        1 artillery moved from Northern Italy to Yugoslavia
        1 aaGun moved from Northern Italy to Yugoslavia
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Southern Italy to Northern Italy
        1 aaGun moved from Southern Italy to Northern Italy
        1 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Southern France

    Place Units - Italians
        1 fighter placed in Southern Italy

    Turn Complete - Italians
        Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 2
            Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 97 Sea Zone. Rolls: 1,1
        Italians collect 9 PUs (2 lost to blockades); end with 11 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Italians regular : 0,17
British regular : 0,50

ita7 (2).tsvg