L21 playoff OOB jkeller(X) vs trulpen (L+43)

[jkeller]

Americans regular : 0,67

Italians regular : -0,83

Japanese regular : -0,33

Germans AA : -0,17

British regular : 1,17

Of course every allied is above expected and every axis is below what’s new lol

[jkeller]

average TUV swing seems to be less bad with scramble in sz97 so I will reroll it

[trulpen]

Which figs to scramble?

[jkeller]

3 Italian fighters

[jkeller]

If you need to adjust noncombat based on results I have no problem with that of course

[trulpen]

The rerolled battle.

L21 SF jkeller vs trulpen (+43) OOB battle.tsvg

[trulpen]

Adjusted. 2 UK-figs on the US-ac.

UCU8 L21 SF jkeller vs trulpen (+43) OOB.tsvg

[jkeller]

@jkeller holy shit 34 ipc below expectation lol that was horrible

[trulpen]

Wasn’t good for Mussolini. With the bad result on the first go I can understand you wanted another shot. Could’ve worked, but this was of course worse. I’ll try to not assume so much regarding scrambles, but rather await your decisions.

[trulpen]

The difference in TUV between the two results was just 8 though.

[trulpen]

Oh, wait, perhaps not.

[jkeller]

wasnt based on dice at all but average expected outcome. of course average does not mean it will be better than even a bad initial roll lol. oh well i would still make same decision again especially with even a small possibility of killing uk fighters and german counter on british fleet

[jkeller]

italy l21-sf-jkeller-vs-trulpen-43-oob (36).tsvg

[trulpen]

Yes, seems correct.

First was +26.

Second +34.

Expected TUV was +10.

[trulpen]

@jkeller said in L21 playoff OOB jkeller(X) vs trulpen (L+43):

wasnt based on dice at all but average expected outcome. of course average does not mean it will be better than even a bad initial roll lol. oh well i would still make same decision again especially with even a small possibility of killing uk fighters and german counter on british fleet

Yep, that actually makes a lot of sense.

[jkeller]

initial roll was -28 vs -20 expected. adjusted battle was -44 vs a -10 expected. but i would do it again

[jkeller]

ya first one -26. second one -44

[trulpen]

Franz8 L21 SF jkeller vs trulpen (+43) OOB.tsvg

[jkeller]

Game History

Round: 9

    Research Technology - Germans

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans repair damage of 3x factory_minor; Remaining resources: 77 PUs; 
        Germans buy 1 artillery, 1 fighter, 13 infantry and 6 mech_infantrys; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Germans
        1 mech_infantry moved from Volgograd to Kazakhstan
        4 infantry moved from Volgograd to Kazakhstan
        1 infantry moved from Smolensk to Vologda
        1 bomber moved from Western Germany to Vologda
        1 infantry moved from Volgograd to Samara
        1 infantry moved from Tambov to Samara
        11 armour and 22 mech_infantrys moved from Volgograd to Northwest Persia
        1 bomber moved from Southern Italy to Samara
        4 fighters moved from Western Germany to 97 Sea Zone
        2 fighters moved from Southern Italy to 97 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Smolensk to Vologda
        1 infantry moved from Archangel to Vologda

    Combat - Germans
        Battle in 97 Sea Zone
            Germans attack with 6 fighters
            British defend with 1 destroyer; Americans defend with 1 submarine
            1 submarine owned by the Americans submerged
                Germans roll dice for 6 fighters in 97 Sea Zone, round 2 : 4/6 hits, 3.00 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 destroyer in 97 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 destroyer owned by the British lost in 97 Sea Zone
            Germans win with 6 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
            Casualties for British: 1 destroyer
        Battle in Northwest Persia
            Germans attack with 11 armour and 22 mech_infantrys
            British defend with 3 artilleries, 1 fighter, 6 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
                Germans roll dice for 11 armour and 22 mech_infantrys in Northwest Persia, round 2 : 9/33 hits, 9.17 expected hits
                British roll dice for 3 artilleries, 1 fighter, 6 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Northwest Persia, round 2 : 2/11 hits, 4.17 expected hits
                3 artilleries owned by the British, 2 mech_infantrys owned by the Germans and 6 infantry owned by the British lost in Northwest Persia
                Germans roll dice for 11 armour and 20 mech_infantrys in Northwest Persia, round 3 : 10/31 hits, 8.83 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber in Northwest Persia, round 3 : 2/2 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                1 tactical_bomber owned by the British, 2 mech_infantrys owned by the Germans and 1 fighter owned by the British lost in Northwest Persia
            Germans win, taking Northwest Persia from British with 11 armour and 18 mech_infantrys remaining. Battle score for attacker is 35
            Casualties for Germans: 4 mech_infantrys
            Casualties for British: 3 artilleries, 1 fighter, 6 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
        Battle in Kazakhstan
            Germans attack with 4 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
            Russians defend with 1 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 4 infantry and 1 mech_infantry in Kazakhstan, round 2 : 2/5 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Kazakhstan, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Kazakhstan
            Germans win, taking Kazakhstan from Russians with 4 infantry and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
        Battle in Samara
            Germans attack with 1 bomber and 2 infantry
            Russians defend with 1 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 1 bomber and 2 infantry in Samara, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Samara, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Samara
            Germans win, taking Samara from Russians with 1 bomber and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
        Battle in Vologda
            Germans attack with 1 bomber and 3 infantry
            Russians defend with 1 artillery and 1 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 1 bomber and 3 infantry in Vologda, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Vologda, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Vologda
                Germans roll dice for 1 bomber and 3 infantry in Vologda, round 3 : 3/4 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 artillery in Vologda, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 artillery owned by the Russians lost in Vologda
            Germans win, taking Vologda from Russians with 1 bomber and 3 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
            Casualties for Russians: 1 artillery and 1 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Germans
        3 infantry moved from Novgorod to Archangel
        2 infantry moved from Novgorod to Archangel
        1 bomber moved from Samara to Volgograd
        3 artilleries moved from Ukraine to Bryansk
        3 artilleries moved from Belarus to Bryansk
        2 mech_infantrys moved from Poland to Belarus
        1 infantry moved from Archangel to Smolensk
        1 transport moved from 115 Sea Zone to 114 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from Germany to 114 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 114 Sea Zone to 115 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 115 Sea Zone to Novgorod
        8 mech_infantrys moved from Western Germany to Slovakia Hungary
        1 mech_infantry moved from Western Germany to Slovakia Hungary
        1 bomber moved from Vologda to Archangel
        1 fighter moved from 97 Sea Zone to Volgograd
        2 fighters moved from 97 Sea Zone to Southern Italy
        3 fighters moved from 97 Sea Zone to Western Germany
        2 aaGuns moved from France to Western Germany

    Place Units - Germans
        3 infantry placed in Ukraine
        3 infantry placed in Volgograd
        Germans undo move 1.
        1 artillery and 2 infantry placed in Ukraine
        3 infantry placed in Novgorod
        2 infantry placed in Germany
        3 infantry placed in France
        1 fighter and 6 mech_infantrys placed in Western Germany
        Germans undo move 5.
        1 infantry placed in Western Germany
        2 infantry placed in France

    Turn Complete - Germans
        Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 2
            Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 97 Sea Zone. Rolls: 3,1
        Germans collect 62 PUs (2 lost to blockades); end with 62 PUs
        Trigger Germans 5 Swedish Iron Ore: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 67 PUs
        Objective Germans 6 Control Iraq Or Persia Or Northwest Persia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 69 PUs
        Objective Germans 3 Control Caucasus: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 74 PUs
        Objective Germans 2 Control Novgorod Or Volgograd Or Russia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 10 PUs; end with 84 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Americans regular : -0.33
Russians regular : -1.67
Germans regular : 4.83
British regular : -1.33

[jkeller]

german l21-sf-jkeller-vs-trulpen-43-oob (37).tsvg