Here is what has to happen for me to decide to try a Pacific USA strategy (don’t call it KJF because Japan will never die):
Russia has to do pretty well on the Eastern Front during their turn and during Germany’s turn.
UK has to do really well in Africa, since they will not be getting your support there.
UK has to move their Indian fleet West.
Japan has to lose at least 1 boat and 1 fighter during their turn
Japan has to move their East Indies fleet 2 moves West. This usually means they crush the British fleet off of the Sinai Peninsula and horn of africa, but it really does not matter where, so long as it is 2 moves West.
Japan has to move their Battleship or Carrier to Hawaii, along with their Cruiser too (though if they move all 3 plus the sub, they might be too powerful to destroy if you don’t roll well, which would cancel this strat).
Japan has to not purchase any navy first turn.
I would then purchase as America either: 1 Carrier 3 Subs 1 Fighter, or 2 Carriers 1 Sub 1 Destroyer, or 1 BB 1 Carrier 1 Destroyer, or something like this
Then, I would attack Japan’s BB/Carrier plus Cruiser plus sub if it is there with your 2 fighter, 1 bomber, 1 BB, 1 Sub (assuming you submerged it)
If Japan has 1 BB, 1 Cruiser, 1 Sub at Hawaii, you have a 94-98% chance of winning depending on if you have the sub still.
If Japan has 1 BB, 1 Carrier, 1 Fighter, 1 Cruiser, 1 Sub, you have only a 56% chance of winning assuming you have the sub. I would still attack. If it goes well, then you do Pac strat, if you fail, you place purchase in Atl.
If Japan has 2 Fighter, 1 BB, 1 CV, 1 CC, 1 Sub, you are screwed and only have a 20% chance of winning, so I would not take it.
If you lose any more than your Submarine and a fighter, I would go ahead and abandon this strategy and place your purchase in the Atlantic, unless you destroyed a BB and Carrier in the process.
If you you only the Submarine, I would place your purchase in the Pacific and say a prayer.
If you lose the sub and a fighter, well, its up to you.
Basically, Japan has 4 capital ships as well as 6 fighter, 1 bomber, 2 other navy units, and a very good position. The only way you will succeed in your Pacific strategy is to kill 1 of the Capital ships, kill the 2 other navy units (sub and cruiser), have one of her fighters die somewhere, and have 2 of her capital ships far out of position so that they can not be used for several turns. By killing the BB at Hawaii, and by having her other BB and carrier tied up near Egypt (can get back to Japan by end of J3), this will give you approximately 2 more turns to catch up in Navy to Japan.
You will be making 38 a round, Japan will be making about the same after 2 rounds.
Japan has 3 capital ships to your 1 capital ship + whatever you just bought
Japan has 2x more fighters than you. (this is huge, you will never overcome this part)
And it is Japan’s turn… (meaning they are about to buy more, and have the initiative)
It is still an uphill battle, but your objective is mostly just to make Japan play stupidly and make her forget about her western front. The best you can do is to Take Borneo, East Indies, and sink the Japanese fleet with 1 surviving unit on your side, all by turn 7 or so. Most likely, you will take just 1 Island and will lose your entire fleet, but will be successful in distracting Japan and making her Western assault go very poorly.