2021 BM4 playoff axis-d vs farmboy (+19)

[farmboy]

@axis-dominion yeah. I knew you migth do this, but slight underestimated what the odds would be. One thing that is interesting though is that when I check the odds with the Germans (after available UK air land, I get about 70% odds and when I do the same numbers with the Japanese, I get 87%.

[farmboy]

I’m curious which is more accurate too.

[axis-dominion]

@farmboy said in 2021 BM4 playoff axis-d vs farmboy (+19):

@axis-dominion yeah. I knew you migth do this, but slight underestimated what the odds would be. One thing that is interesting though is that when I check the odds with the Germans (after available UK air land, I get about 70% odds and when I do the same numbers with the Japanese, I get 87%.

yah, I think it’s a known bug with the jap calc, i believe that is not the reliable one to go with

[JDOW]

@farmboy I know for sure, that, back then, the calculator was bugged when using Japan.

The bug I found is that it ignored AA. That could have huge consequences as big attacks on India disregarded AA.

However, the bug seem to have switched. I just tried out Japan vs India (10 figs vs 1 AA) and the expected TUV was 0 which is correct.

Then I did Japan vs Russia and 10 figs vs 1 AA gives you +5 = AA is ignored

Thus, you know that when Japan attacks Russia, defending AAs are kind of ignored.

[JDOW]

@jdow

[axis-dominion]

but those odds could change if I crash coursed the brown shits first ;)

[farmboy]

Oh, I’m aware, which is why I’m going for neutral crush to land a few more air

@axis-dominion said in 2021 BM4 playoff axis-d vs farmboy (+19):

but those odds could change if I crash coursed the brown shits first ;)

[farmboy]

@jdow thanks Jdow, that is a bit of a relief at least

[farmboy]

@axis-dominion before finishing the UK turn, I realized I forgot to move the US air in 97. Will land that in Belarus

[axis-dominion]

@farmboy said in 2021 BM4 playoff axis-d vs farmboy (+19):

@axis-dominion before finishing the UK turn, I realized I forgot to move the US air in 97. Will land that in Belarus

ok no problem

[farmboy]

@axis-dominion UK13.tsvg

[axis-dominion]

it13.tsvg

[farmboy]

@axis-dominion Fre13.tsvg

[axis-dominion]

g14.tsvg

[farmboy]

@axis-dominion Sov14.tsvg

[farmboy]

@axis-dominion Sov14.tsvg This instead

[axis-dominion]

j14.tsvg

[farmboy]

@axis-dominion I assumed no intercept in Stalingrad (7 fig + bomber against 4) but of course we can still do it. Also had meant to take the inf from shan to yunnan and one less from Burma. I assumed that after the fact. so if it is an issue just move one inf from India to Burma. And I forgot a walkin on S France so edited that in after.

[farmboy]

@farmboy UK14.tsvg

[farmboy]

also nice AA!