ABH and crockett36, (A+69) tutor game

[trulpen]

@crockett36 said in ABH and crockett36, (A+69) tutor game:

@arthur-bomber-harris so I’m considering a Spanish beachhead?

Way too early, but the idea is very promising when the time is right.

[crockett36]

@trulpen I tell my kids rarely to contradict someone right off the bat. Rather say, “That’s a good idea general. I can see how that would work. But it’s rather early for that, don’t you think, sir?”

And then the general would say, I didn’t mean this turn since I literally couldn’t do it this turn.

[trulpen]

Ah, ok, planning long-term. That’s good. Definitely look out for a promising intrusion in Spain. When executed successfully it’s golden, getting american land units into Europe twice as fast. Actually, the effect is that half the amount of trannies are needed.

Anyway, don’t think we can say much more than that now, so what’s the overall plan in other areas?

[crockett36]

quick incomplete thougjts

i want air superiority in europe almost every brit purchase being a plane

I d like to hold bryansk for a turn so British fighters there early.

I like my us fleet in the north Pacific. This pulls. At the balloon.

[trulpen]

Air to support Moscow is great. Only problem is that it’s a cost impacting other areas. Holding Cairo and Gibraltar is also key for the allied progress. Should be possible to find a sweet-spot.

I think US should rather aim for z54 by Queensland as an outpost in the Pac. There will be a symbiosis there with ANZAC, pressuring important islands.

This early US isn’t really a threat to J, but with eventual mobilization it will be. There are several different routes, like aiming for the DEI or z6 and Korea. The Carolines is a great spot for the USN, but just be careful not to get routed.

What if it’s not a balloon, but a kettlebell?

[crockett36]

@trulpen agree that the inn is serious. I was using Andrew’s metaphor. The problem with 54 is that it is convenient for the Japanese. They can dual use their navy to project power towards Sidney and Calcutta. Let’s take that off the table.

I am interested in my navy threatening sz6 as soon as he drops that naval base in hainan. would like to shuttle my entire air force to Calcutta asap. I

[crockett36]

…the ijn is serious…

[crockett36]

Now from Calcutta they can head to Moscow. So my t1 build for USA would be replacement figs.

Now we should be aware that this is what he wants. J1 is out of fashion. So this j1 is to give Germany a little room to breathe.

[crockett36]

I have a plan. Assemble all us forces around Central America. Drop a naval base. T2 move to 92. T3 Egypt t4 we’re in sz6 80. Off Persia. We go half way around the world, squash Italy and meet the ijn in the indian ocean with a huge air force to clean and head to Moscow. .

[crockett36]

@crockett36 co.mence firing but also tweaking

[crockett36]

Australia will be garrisoned with 7 us units probably fighters from us t2 n 3

[crockett36]

check this out. terrible luck. like battle for 109 luck. see what you guys think about these movements. ABH, sorry. I should have done a local game, but I’m watching tv with the family.

triplea_37451_1jap.tsvg

[crockett36]

So part of me wants to do a dead zone with China and part of me wants to make yunnan costly/hold it. If I held it I could run to Burma to help Calcutta. The naval base first turn made me think shallow penetration. Mostly amphibious Calcutta crush t3. I do not mind bugging out of India but towards China. In that scenario China has to rush Hong Kong.

[crockett36]

The British turn is completely normal. Tobruk and taranto. 92 stack. 2 planes and destroyer for purchases. Ethiopia and buzz Iraq. I might back off of Ethiopia. Grab Persia. Being very cautious with my transports

[crockett36]

I’ll confer with no limit and post the trio video tomorrow afternoon.

[surfer]

Tobruk + Taranto + SZ92 stack?

Not sure this can all be done safely in one turn.
Tobruk (2 inf + 2 art + tank + mech vs. 3 inf + 1 art + tank + mech) = loser. Needs ftr+ tac to be 90% battle. (80% with just tac)
Could send transport to Tobruk to help, but sacrifices it. I would not recommend

Taranto (SS + DD + CA + 1 ftr + 1 sb + 2ftr UK vs. BB+CA + 2ftr + tac) = 66% battle. So either add CV or take ftr from Malta that would attack Tobruk…

SZ92 stack =? BB + 2CA + CV + 2 ftr?
First gotta kill SZ96 DD. But can with 1 SS in SZ91 + ftr in Gibraltar
The 2 ftrs (hopefully) come from the 2 Malta ftrs that go to Taranto…that lowered the Tobruk attack. However, if he doesn’t scramble in Taranto, then very likely 1 London ftr survives. Now the CV has to goto 97, and the SZ92 stack is destroyed by Italy.
You could take the DD out of the Taranto attack and leave it in SZ94 to block the fleet, but now Taranto can fail.

I like Tobruk, it marginalizes Italy. I think we have to pick between SZ92 and Taranto.

If you really want to hit a guy while he’s down, attack Holland Belgium. Bring 2 inf + 4 ftr + sb + shore bombard and its 66% attack, but it will destroy a sb and further reduce the Luftwaffe. Even if he wins he’ll probably only have 1-2 ftrs.

Or buy 1 CV and send 2 inf + 2 ftr+ sb against W. ger. Reduce his W Europe production off the bat.

I like the CV buy, the home fleet is not threatened anymore by the Luftwaffe and you threaten the entire coast with invasions.

[crockett36]

@surfer I did a mock turn and did all three

[surfer]

@crockett36 Of course. But what probability of success did you accept for the battles? If one of those drops down < 80%, the likelihood of all attacks succeeding (joint probability) drops to 50-60% range. A test turn can work, but not good estimate of success. Better is run calculator for each battle and then multiply the probability of each result to find total success rate.

Even enough 90% battles will eventually fail somewhere.

Regardless, I’m not sure what you consider stacking SZ92? is the CV part of the stack? If so, how do you attack Taranto?
Maybe easier just post your test game move.

[crockett36]

@surfer look at page five. It has a jap1 save file name under one of my posts

[trulpen]

It’s a good analysis by surfer.

I usually don’t like Taranto much, but in this situation it might actually be the best move. I haven’t studied the details, but there should not be so much danger of german retaliation by the crippled luftwaffe.

Anyway, Taranto really shuts down Italy, which is golden. If UK is able to then save the remaining fleet, it’s magnificent. Still, wouldn’t count on it being possible, but now it atleast might get pretty costly to sink it.

This however means that UK needs to get the ac into the fight. There is a risk of it having to be sacrificed, but it’s not so big.

When doing it I’d prefer to have +90 % odds, so atleast 2-3 figs in there along with the tac and sb.

An alternative is of course to try and save the ac, but then any air from UK has to get shot down. This limits the attack, which I think is bad.