New Thoughts and Revisions After a Few Months of Playing

[axis_roll]

@rockrobinoff:

@Subotai:

All things being equal, then I would say allies are favored to win the game.

That’s my assessment as well. There seems to be other, less risky, targets that should give Axis a good game.

I don’t think losing the Egypt G1 battle is a loss for the axis.  Sure it’s nice but not necessary for Germany to take Egypt G1.  That is a small hurdle for the Axis to overcome.  Egypt and Transjordan will fall to Italy (I1), and then Africa falls after 3 rounds instead of 2.

Alot depends on what Germany is doing on G1 (buy, moves, battle outcomes)

[jsp4563]

I tend to agree with U-505, you might as well attack Egypt.  IMO not attacking is a worse outcome than attacking and losing.  Even if you lose, you will have normally destroyed all the UK ground forces and Italy can take Egypt and TJ I1 giving them both their NO’s (assuming no UK attack on Algeria).  Germany has a 75% chance of taking Egypt and an 81% chance of destroying all UK units including the fighter.

[Lucifer]

I would think it’s not a wise decision to take the bmr as casuality, any players who do this?

And it’s 60% to take Egy G1 with 1 tank left, (or more units), not 75% unless you take the bmr as casuality. This is in ADS, I reckon most of you play ADS not LL.

http://frood.net/aacalc/?mustland=0&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&aInf=2&aArt=1&aArm=2&aFig=&aBom=1&aTra=&aSub=&aDes=&aCar=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=2&dArt=1&dArm=1&dFig=1&dBom=&dTra=&dSub=&dDes=&dCar=&dBat=&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-Arm-Tra-Sub-SSub-Fig-JFig-Des-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat&ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-Arm-Tra-Sub-SSub-Bom-HBom-Des-Fig-JFig-Car-dBat&battle=Run&rounds=&reps=5000&luck=pure&ruleset=Revised&gameid=&password=&turnid=&territory=&round=1&pbem=

[jsp4563]

@Subotai:

I would think it’s not a wise decision to take the bmr as casuality, any players who do this?

And it’s 60% to take Egy G1 with 1 tank left, (or more units), not 75% unless you take the bmr as casuality. This is in ADS, I reckon most of you play ADS not LL.

http://frood.net/aacalc/?mustland=0&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&aInf=2&aArt=1&aArm=2&aFig=&aBom=1&aTra=&aSub=&aDes=&aCar=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=2&dArt=1&dArm=1&dFig=1&dBom=&dTra=&dSub=&dDes=&dCar=&dBat=&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-Arm-Tra-Sub-SSub-Fig-JFig-Des-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat&ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-Arm-Tra-Sub-SSub-Bom-HBom-Des-Fig-JFig-Car-dBat&battle=Run&rounds=&reps=5000&luck=pure&ruleset=Revised&gameid=&password=&turnid=&territory=&round=1&pbem=

Agreed, I would not take the bomber as a casualty.  I’d withdraw from the battle rather than risk losing it.  The point is to weaken if not take Egypt to open up Africa for Italy.

[Woodstock]

I always somewhat like it if Ger loses to the British in Egypt. This way I know for sure that those 2 IPC’s are going to Italy, who could use it  alot better then the already not so poor Germans.
Sure. UK may have it’s NO for 1 more round, but so what?

[jsp4563]

@Woodstock:

I always somewhat like it if Ger loses to the British in Egypt. This way I know for sure that those 2 IPC’s are going to Italy, who could use it  alot better then the already not so poor Germans.
Sure. UK may have it’s NO for 1 more round, but so what?

I tend to agree.  I’m trying out a new tactic, sending the bomber agains the UK BB in SZ2 with the 2 SS from SZ7, and attacking Egypt with the usual ground forces.  The Egypt battle only has a 30% chance of success but the most likely outcome is UK holds with just the fighter.  Ripe picking for Italy, and UK is down a BB and TP from SZ2.

[Woodstock]

@Emperor:

@Woodstock:

I always somewhat like it if Ger loses to the British in Egypt. This way I know for sure that those 2 IPC’s are going to Italy, who could use it  alot better then the already not so poor Germans.
Sure. UK may have it’s NO for 1 more round, but so what?

I tend to agree.  I’m trying out a new tactic, sending the bomber agains the UK BB in SZ2 with the 2 SS from SZ7, and attacking Egypt with the usual ground forces.  The Egypt battle only has a 30% chance of success but the most likely outcome is UK holds with just the fighter.  Ripe picking for Italy, and UK is down a BB and TP from SZ2.

I usually send only 1 sub to SZ2, combined with a fighter and the bomber, and the other sub combined with 1 fighter to SZ12.

If Egypt holds the fighter + the fleet off the Med is intact, then the Italian fleet could be toast on UK1.

SZ2 should cost you the sub (so what), and maybe 1 fighter (Germany can handle that), SZ12 might cost you a sub (again, so what) and the fighter (again, Germany can spare it), but the Italian fleet survives.

Also, if you take only 1 ship from SZ12, that’s enough already to save the Italian navy.
(So if your sub is killed in the first round, and a british ship is destroyed, just retreat).

This way, Italian fleet is safe, Egypt should be in German hands or else in Italy on IT1, plus you still get that juicy BB.

[Lynxes]

So, we have 3 options for G1, and I don’t count not attacking EGY at all which I wouldn’t recommend! In order of risk to the Axis:

1. 2 sub, 1 ftr vs. sz2; 2 inf, 1 art, 2 arm, 1 bom vs. Egypt. This saves the Italian fleet in around 80% of cases, since you’ll be destroying that fighter. It is risky though since you’ll be in dire straits if you don’t!
2. 2 sub, 1 ftr vs. sz12; 2 inf, 1 art, 2 arm, 1 bom vs. Egypt. Attacking sz12 at the same time as Egypt will lessen the risk to the Italian navy in case of a failed Egypt attack. But UK gets to keep its battleship, a stronger backbone for the Royal navy.
3. 1 sub, 1 ftr, 1 bom vs. sz2; 1 sub, 2 ftr vs. sz12; 2 inf, 1 art, 2 arm vs. Egypt. The likely result here is that you simply reduce the UK forces in Egypt to 1 ftr or 1 arm+1 ftr, but the good thing is you will probably wipe out all heavy naval units. On ITA1, 3 inf, 1 arm, 1 ftr + shore bombardment will be able to deal with any UK defence of Egypt if the Japs have done their job and sunk the Indian fleet. The main drawback here is that UK gets one extra turn of NO bonus and Italy will have to wait a turn for getting both NOs.

(Bardoly, thanks for the correction!  :wink: )

[Bardoly]

@Lynxes:

So, we have 3 options for G1, and I don’t count not attacking EGY at all which I wouldn’t recommend! In order of risk to the Axis:

1. 2 sub, 1 ftr vs. sz2; 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm, 1 bom vs. Egypt. This saves the Italian fleet in around 80% of cases, since you’ll be destroying that fighter. It is risky though since you’ll be in dire straits if you don’t!
2. 2 sub, 1 ftr vs. sz12; 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm, 1 bom vs. Egypt. Attacking sz12 at the same time as Egypt will lessen the risk to the Italian navy in case of a failed Egypt attack. But UK gets to keep its battleship, a stronger backbone for the Royal navy.
3. 1 sub, 1 ftr, 1 bom vs. sz2; 1 sub, 2 ftr vs. sz12; 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm vs. Egypt. The likely result here is that you simply reduce the UK forces in Egypt to 1 ftr or 1 arm+1 ftr, but the good thing is you will probably wipe out all heavy naval units. On ITA1, 3 inf, 1 arm, 1 ftr + shore bombardment will be able to deal with any UK defence of Egypt if the Japs have done their job and sunk the Indian fleet. The main drawback here is that UK gets one extra turn of NO bonus and Italy will have to wait a turn for getting both NOs.

Actually, Germany brings 2 arm(the second one from France) to Egypt, not 1 as your post says

[jsp4563]

I like sending the 2 subs to SZ2 because they get the free shot.  I send 3 fighters against the fleet in SZ12 and Ground forces to Egypt.

In my current game this has worked out pretty well with a CV+DD purchase on G1 and a TP, DD, CA on G2, and added a 2nd BB for Italy on I2, the axis rule the seas, and Germany is entrenched in Karelia.  Those pesky allies have a huge bomber fleet which is worrisome, we’ll see how it works out.

EMvIvanova_AA50-41-12_03Cj.aam

[Woodstock]

@Emperor:

I like sending the 2 subs to SZ2 because they get the free shot.  I send 3 fighters against the fleet in SZ12 and Ground forces to Egypt.

In my current game this has worked out pretty well with a CV+DD purchase on G1 and a TP, DD, CA on G2, and added a 2nd BB for Italy on I2, the axis rule the seas, and Germany is entrenched in Karelia.  Those pesky allies have a huge bomber fleet which is worrisome, we’ll see how it works out.

I like your style MOllari. Finally someone openly admitting investing in the Baltic is worthwile :)
And let the Bombers come. If the board looks like anything I think it should look, that’s all the Allie can send in against your fleet.

However, Axis >>>>> Allies money wise, so even if they blow up your entire fleet, they will definitely lose some bombers aswell…but you are in the position to easily replenish the forces, whereas the Allies can’t.

[jsp4563]

@Woodstock:

@Emperor:

I like sending the 2 subs to SZ2 because they get the free shot.  I send 3 fighters against the fleet in SZ12 and Ground forces to Egypt.

In my current game this has worked out pretty well with a CV+DD purchase on G1 and a TP, DD, CA on G2, and added a 2nd BB for Italy on I2, the axis rule the seas, and Germany is entrenched in Karelia.  Those pesky allies have a huge bomber fleet which is worrisome, we’ll see how it works out.

I like your style MOllari. Finally someone openly admitting investing in the Baltic is worthwile :)
And let the Bombers come. If the board looks like anything I think it should look, that’s all the Allie can send in against your fleet.

However, Axis >>>>> Allies money wise, so even if they blow up your entire fleet, they will definitely lose some bombers aswell…but you are in the position to easily replenish the forces, whereas the Allies can’t.

Thanks!  UK will no doubt sink my baltic fleet this turn with 4fgt, 3bmb, the most likely outcome 2-3 bombers left.  That’s ok, it served it’s purpose which was to take and hold Karelia G2.  Reinforced on G3 so it now has 6inf, 2art, 7tnk, 1fgt.

[Woodstock]

And Japan is making it’s way o Russia aswell I assume, so that should be another Axis win ;-)

[jsp4563]

@Woodstock:

And Japan is making it’s way o Russia aswell I assume, so that should be another Axis win ;-)

Yes, UK has an IC and 6inf, 1tnk, 1fgt, 1bmb in India which will have to be eliminated, and the US has been building ships in the Pacific, that helps Germany.  The only allied ships in the atlantic are 1DD, 1TP-US and lone soviet sub.  US has 6fgt, 3CV, 2DD, 1TP in the Pacific.

It’s the end of J3, here’s the map.

EMvIvanova_AA50-41-12_03Cj.aam

[U-505]

Germany better get a move on because it looks like Japan is about to be ejected from the Pacific.

And why did you take the Caroline Islands so heavy when you’re going to leave those guys stranded?

[jsp4563]

@U-505:

Germany better get a move on because it looks like Japan is about to be ejected from the Pacific.

And why did you take the Caroline Islands so heavy when you’re going to leave those guys stranded?

Naw, Japan will still be around.  The move to Caroline Is. was to prevent UK from landing for the NO and then the US parking their fleet there so Japan couldn’t eject UK, and giving the allies a a nice spot to hit the spice rich islands.  Caroline is 1 move from the US so they could continue to funnel ships there.  But if they have no ground forces there, it’s useless.  Nice place to park fighters too.

[U-505]

I don’t want to go any further if the UK and the US haven’t moved yet, but let me know when they do.  :-D

[Jennifer]

@Emperor:

@Woodstock:

@Emperor:

I like sending the 2 subs to SZ2 because they get the free shot.  I send 3 fighters against the fleet in SZ12 and Ground forces to Egypt.

In my current game this has worked out pretty well with a CV+DD purchase on G1 and a TP, DD, CA on G2, and added a 2nd BB for Italy on I2, the axis rule the seas, and Germany is entrenched in Karelia.  Those pesky allies have a huge bomber fleet which is worrisome, we’ll see how it works out.

I like your style MOllari. Finally someone openly admitting investing in the Baltic is worthwile :)
And let the Bombers come. If the board looks like anything I think it should look, that’s all the Allie can send in against your fleet.

However, Axis >>>>> Allies money wise, so even if they blow up your entire fleet, they will definitely lose some bombers aswell…but you are in the position to easily replenish the forces, whereas the Allies can’t.

Thanks!  UK will no doubt sink my baltic fleet this turn with 4fgt, 3bmb, the most likely outcome 2-3 bombers left.  That’s ok, it served it’s purpose which was to take and hold Karelia G2.  Reinforced on G3 so it now has 6inf, 2art, 7tnk, 1fgt.

Actually, that battle is 50/50 according to the sim with the axis probably surviving with 2 fighters and a cruiser. (and of course the transport.)

[Jennifer]

@Emperor:

@U-505:

Germany better get a move on because it looks like Japan is about to be ejected from the Pacific.

And why did you take the Caroline Islands so heavy when you’re going to leave those guys stranded?

Naw, Japan will still be around.  The move to Caroline Is. was to prevent UK from landing for the NO and then the US parking their fleet there so Japan couldn’t eject UK, and giving the allies a a nice spot to hit the spice rich islands.  Caroline is 1 move from the US so they could continue to funnel ships there.  But if they have no ground forces there, it’s useless.  Nice place to park fighters too.

UK could move to Okinawa for the IPC and the NO.  But honestly, with 10 fighters in range of everything, you should have invited the allies to land in Carolines and sent all their boats into the drink at the cost of a few fighters.

[U-505]

@Cmdr:

@Emperor:

@Woodstock:

@Emperor:

I like sending the 2 subs to SZ2 because they get the free shot.  I send 3 fighters against the fleet in SZ12 and Ground forces to Egypt.

In my current game this has worked out pretty well with a CV+DD purchase on G1 and a TP, DD, CA on G2, and added a 2nd BB for Italy on I2, the axis rule the seas, and Germany is entrenched in Karelia.  Those pesky allies have a huge bomber fleet which is worrisome, we’ll see how it works out.

I like your style MOllari. Finally someone openly admitting investing in the Baltic is worthwile :)
And let the Bombers come. If the board looks like anything I think it should look, that’s all the Allie can send in against your fleet.

However, Axis >>>>> Allies money wise, so even if they blow up your entire fleet, they will definitely lose some bombers aswell…but you are in the position to easily replenish the forces, whereas the Allies can’t.

Thanks!  UK will no doubt sink my baltic fleet this turn with 4fgt, 3bmb, the most likely outcome 2-3 bombers left.  That’s ok, it served it’s purpose which was to take and hold Karelia G2.  Reinforced on G3 so it now has 6inf, 2art, 7tnk, 1fgt.

Actually, that battle is 50/50 according to the sim with the axis probably surviving with 2 fighters and a cruiser. (and of course the transport.)

My numbers say roughly 62% win with an average of 1 bmb remaining, 6% clear, and 32% loss.