I think, that I would have scrambled with 3 fighters to SZ110 because of the lack of sub fodder and 1 fighter to SZ109.
In my turn I would have attacked the remaining sub(s) in SZ109 with SZ106 destroyer and air to prevent convoying.
Hall of Shame - tales of the worst dice ever
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(1/6)^3 = .00463, or .5% chance that your 1 hits 3 in a row.
(5/6)^2 * 1/2 = .34722, or 34.7% chance of whiffing in a round
.34722^3 = .04186 or 4% chance of whiffing 3 straight rounds..04186*.00463 = .00019 that both would happen (the result you saw)
find a little problem here
whiff 1st round is .34722
whiff 2nd round will be more likely to happen if opponent hit 1st round.
should it be (5/6) * (1/2)= .41667?
3nd round is 1/2?0.347220.416670.5=0.0723
0.00463*0.0723=0.00033=0.033%(both happen)
right?
True, the bomber hits were reducing the offense. Assuming your .033 is correct, it’s 1 in 3000 rather than 1 in 5000
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Time to dig this thread out again.
Look at this: UK1
Combat - British
Battle in 110 Sea Zone
British attack with 1 destroyer, 2 fighters and 1 transport
Germans defend with 1 submarine
British roll dice for 1 destroyer, 2 fighters and 1 transport in 110 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 1,33 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in 110 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
British roll dice for 1 destroyer, 2 fighters and 1 transport in 110 Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/3 hits, 1,33 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in 110 Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
1 destroyer owned by the British lost in 110 Sea Zone
Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in 110 Sea Zone, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in 110 Sea Zone, round 5 : 0/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
1 transport owned by the British retreated to 109 Sea Zone
Germans win with 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is -8
Casualties for British: 1 destroyer
Battle in Normandy Bordeaux
British attack with 1 bomber
Germans defend with 1 artillery, 1 factory_minor and 1 harbour
British roll dice for 1 bomber in Normandy Bordeaux, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,67 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 artillery in Normandy Bordeaux, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
1 artillery owned by the Germans and 1 bomber owned by the British lost in Normandy Bordeaux
Germans win with no units remaining. Battle score for attacker is -8
Casualties for British: 1 bomber
Casualties for Germans: 1 artilleryCombat - British
Battle in 110 Sea Zone
British attack with 1 destroyer, 2 fighters and 1 transport
Germans defend with 1 submarine
British roll dice for 1 destroyer, 2 fighters and 1 transport in 110 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 1,33 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in 110 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
1 destroyer owned by the British lost in 110 Sea Zone
1 transport owned by the British retreated to 109 Sea Zone
Germans win with 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is -8
Casualties for British: 1 destroyerBattle in Normandy Bordeaux
British attack with 1 bomber
Germans defend with 1 artillery, 1 factory_minor and 1 harbour
British roll dice for 1 bomber in Normandy Bordeaux, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,67 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 artillery in Normandy Bordeaux, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
1 artillery owned by the Germans and 1 bomber owned by the British lost in Normandy Bordeaux
Germans win with no units remaining. Battle score for attacker is -8
Casualties for British: 1 bomber
Casualties for Germans: 1 artilleryNo, I did NOT copy and paste this twice by accident but this exact sequence of events took place in 2 consecutive games.
The combined odds of losing 110 AND losing the bomber (which would have retreated after round 1) were 0.03 x 0.33 x 0.03 x 0.33 = 0.01%
This is certainly the worst consecutive Allied starts I had ever.
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I had 21 or 22 hits from my 25 defending infantry (Russia defending Leningrad against Germany). I calculated the odds and it was 1 in 100,000 (maybe 1 in 110,000).
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So you need your own thread for the hall of fame of the best dice a player can get:D
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As Japan at “Days of Infamy” website playing the final match of the original Pacific game for the Admiral Championship Trophy and in my case Top and Highest Ranking ever achieved on the website. Last Turn. I need two points to win (20 IPC) and if I fail the US bombers are going to bomb me back into the Stone Age on their Turn. The only critical battle I could not get 100% odds on was Borneo where a single infantry defender was attacked by 2 infantry and 2 artillery. 99.9% chance of success.
I rolled 4 misses, he hit. I rolled 3 misses, he hit. I rolled 2 misses, he hit. I rolled 1 miss, he hit. I missed 10 2’s in a row and he hit 4 2’s in a row. My slightly deficient math skills tell me that is a 1 in 10,000 chance. Cost me the Admiral Trophy and the highest ever ranking in the Club. Had to wait a whole year to get those two goals accomplished.
That was over 15 years ago and I remember it like yesterday. Not bitter at all about it am I?
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For these situations the old AA Calculator/simulator does a better job with showing odds on unlikely probabilities. I think it shows everything that is 0.01% or more (maybe only if you do 10k simulations). Bizarrely it is also a lot faster than the TripleA battle simulator.
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I attacked Bessarabia with 8 tanks 2 inf versus 5 infantry. I got one hit, and my brother, the defender, got 5 hits.
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OOOWWWWW - 2 infantry and 3 tanks destroyed, and down to 5 tanks vs. 4 infantry!
0.4% chance of all 5 infantry hitting, and combined with 2.35% of scoring 0 or 1 hits as the attacker!
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Battle in Kiangsu
Americans attack with 2 bombers, 9 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber
Japanese defend with 1 factory_minor, 2 fighters, 1 infantry and 5 tactical_bombers
Americans roll dice for 2 bombers, 9 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber in Kiangsu, round 2 : 2/12 hits, 6.50 expected hits
Japanese roll dice for 2 fighters, 1 infantry and 5 tactical_bombers in Kiangsu, round 2 : 6/8 hits, 4.17 expected hits
1 tactical_bomber owned by the Japanese, 1 infantry owned by the Japanese and 6 fighters owned by the Americans lost in Kiangsu
Americans roll dice for 2 bombers, 3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber in Kiangsu, round 3 : 1/6 hits, 3.50 expected hits
Japanese roll dice for 2 fighters and 4 tactical_bombers in Kiangsu, round 3 : 5/6 hits, 3.33 expected hits
1 tactical_bomber owned by the Japanese, 1 tactical_bomber owned by the Americans, 2 fighters owned by the Americans and 2 bombers owned by the Americans lost in Kiangsu
1 fighter owned by the Americans retreated
Japanese win with 2 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is -94
Casualties for Americans: 2 bombers, 8 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber
Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry and 2 tactical_bombersAverage dice results in 100% odds, plus-25 TUV, 6.75/12 units remaining. Reality: US retreats with 1/12 aircraft surviving, leaving 5/8 defenders still alive, minus-94 TUV. Entire Allied fleet is forced to flee SZ6 and abandon korea factory. Awful!
https://www.axisandallies.org/forums/topic/36209/l21-freh-v-colt45554-l-16-bm/146?page=6 -
A worthy entry to the hall, Colt!!
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Statistically, this one wasn’t as unlikely as some dice reported here … but it was more than a 100 IPC swing from what would have been the average result. The odds of the battle going so bad were somewhere between 1% and 2%. It was directly responsible for Tokyo being sacked the next turn and cost me the game.
Battle in 17 Sea Zone
Japanese attack with 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer, 5 fighters, 1 submarine and 3 tactical_bombers
Americans defend with 1 battleship, 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 2 destroyers, 2 fighters, 1 submarine and 2 transports
Japanese roll dice for 1 submarine in 17 Sea Zone, round 1 : 0/1 hits
Americans roll dice for 1 submarine in 17 Sea Zone, round 1 : 1/1 hits
Japanese roll dice for 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer, 5 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers in 17 Sea Zone, round 1 : 4/10 hits
Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the Americans and 1 carrier owned by the Americans
Americans roll dice for 1 battleship, 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 2 destroyers, 2 fighters and 2 transports in 17 Sea Zone, round 1 : 5/8 hits
1 submarine owned by the Americans , 1 destroyer owned by the Americans , 1 cruiser owned by the Japanese , 1 destroyer owned by the Japanese , 3 fighters owned by the Japanese and 1 submarine owned by the Japanese lost in 17 Sea Zone
Japanese roll dice for 2 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers in 17 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/5 hits
Americans roll dice for 1 battleship, 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 1 destroyer, 2 fighters and 2 transports in 17 Sea Zone, round 2 : 5/7 hits
1 destroyer owned by the Americans , 3 tactical_bombers owned by the Japanese and 2 fighters owned by the Japanese lost in 17 Sea Zone
Americans win, with 1 battleship, 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 2 fighters and 2 transports remaining. Battle score for attacker is -87
Casualties for Japanese: 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer, 5 fighters, 1 submarine and 3 tactical_bombers
Casualties for Americans: 2 destroyers and 1 submarine
2 fighters owned by the Americans forced to land in Iwo Jima -
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(also, I obviously should have retreated before the last round of combat … I clearly was engaged in magical thinking that the dice would turn around)
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My good friend Ryley attacked my Japanese fleet, here it is before 1 hit with kamikaze:
Here are the remaining Japanese after the battle:
That’s right, 0 Jap casualties, complete US fleet annhilation.
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@shadowhawk said in Hall of Shame - tales of the worst dice ever:
g japan 1 inf 1 art
attacking 3 chinese inf + 1 air
Normal chance of winning 96%
End result japan 1inf 1 art left
china retreated with 1 air.Wow, that is so lucky that the Chinese still had the fighter remaining. Most of my battles would end in two rounds with no remaining Allied forces. Isn’t it crazy how 4% outcomes seem to happen a majority of times?
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@nixonium said in Hall of Shame - tales of the worst dice ever:
That’s right, 0 Jap casualties, complete US fleet annhilation.
Well, he attacked 26 defending Japanese units (including the scramble) with 14 US units. On average he should have gotten 5.5 hits and actually got 4.
Of course, if Japan used its kamikazes effectively he took out a destroyer and a cruiser (on average), which would reduce the expected hits to about 4.5.
I’m not sure that counts as worst dice ever. It’s just a bad attack…
Marsh
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I have twice within a period of two weeks attacked Japanese-held Yunnan (containing three units) with six Chinese infantry and the fighter (99% according to the simulator) and come away with almost complete destruction of the Chinese infantry stack. (Incidentally, it takes I believe 9 attacking infantry to turn that battle into a 100% battle for China).
That’s pretty horrible and probably the worst dice I’ve ever personally experienced.
Marsh
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I will share a tough luck experience for my buddy whom I was playing against. He was attempting Sea Lion on G3 with 7 fighters, 5 TB, 2 SB, a Battleship, Crusier and 4 TTs, carrying 4 infantry and 4 Tanks. I had 5 AAA, 4 Fighters, 1 tank, 1 TB and 18 infantry. The odds were slightly in my favor, but the first wave of rolls didn’t help his chances. I had only 1 hit on 14 tries with my AA and he hit with both ships, but then he only got only 6 hits with the rest of his attack. On my first roll with my 18 infantry I got 10 hits! We were both shocked. I then got another 5 hits with the rest so 15 defensive hits to 8 offensive. Statistically it should never have happened. I wiped his ground forces and more than half of his Luftwaffe and left him badly crippled. The US and Russians were entering the next round so it was pretty much a death blow.
What he should have done (but I never pointed it out to him) was land in Scotland so he could essentially double his landing force and buy a few more bombers. Even with me getting an extra build to defend, I think he would have probably had a 75-80% chance of success.
Edit - I ran the numbers and he would have had an 80% chance of winning if I buy all infantry and 92% chance of winning if I buy 4 infantry a tank and a fighter and he buys 3 more bombers.
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@jscam74 Funny how those 0% likely results happen a lot! The Dice Goddess is a fickle one.
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LOL @MarshmallowofWar
Reminds me of a quote - many years ago - my best A&A gaming buddy said…“One percenters seem to happen a lot in this game”
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