The Germans have no destroyer present, therefore the defending air units can not hit the sub, and of course the sub can never hit planes. Think of it in terms of the combined arms rule, air units can only hit subs if they are combined with at least 1 participating destroyer, the difference with this particular combined arms is that it works while attacking and defending. In the scenario that you described, the sub would destroy the remaining transport without rolling and the defending fighters can do nothing.
Question about the Baltic
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Is it necessary for axis or allies to control Norway and Denmark at the start of their turn, in order to enter/exit the Baltic Sea with non-subs?
If this is not the case (particularly, if control of Denmark alone is necessary), is this a rule Larry has changed recently?
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You only have to have control of Denmark, and that is for all Naval vessels. There are no exceptions for submarines.
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If you are a power that is not yet at war with another power that is in control of a strait you may ask permission to go through it as well.
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Thx!
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Submarines may go through the Gibraltar strait regardless of who controls Gibraltar. This is the only exception. Just in case you didnt know.