any scramble?
L20 AndrewAAGamer (X) vs oysteilo (A+58) OOB
-
For future reference you should have asked for OOL in the UK SZ125 battle. I understand wanting to finish off the combat and finish your Turn, we are all impatient and want to get it done, the problem with that is by doing so you give your Opponent an advantage.
Since you only got one hit I had the choice of taking the sub or the cruiser. Since you continued you are giving me a free look at the dice. Because I can legitimately ask you to redo the battle from the second round of combat on since you did not ask.
So let’s look at it from the defender’s viewpoint. One hit… what do I do? If I take the sub I am guaranteeing that I lose the sub and I cannot remove the Russian NO. But I am increasing my chances of a hit on the second round from 16.66% to 50% since I know my cruiser survives the first round of combat. So if I want to kill as many UK units in this single combat as possible it makes sense to take the sub.
If I take the cruiser and I get a hit then unless the British take a plane my sub survives which denies the Russian their NO. If I get a hit and the British lose a plane to keep the destroyer to kill my sub I am most likely not going to kill anymore British units but I will be able to kill the UK destroyer with an Italian plane which is good. So if I want to try and deny the Russians their NO and I want a chance to kill as many units as possible overall, even if I lose Italian units, then I am going to take the cruiser as the casualty.
Since the odds of getting a hit on Round 1 are more likely than not, 58.2% of a hit versus 41.8% of a miss, and I really want to deny the Russian their NO; it makes sense to take a hit on the cruiser but I am still taking a chance because I do not know what is going to happen actually.
However, in this case you rolled for me. I now know that I got a hit and for you to be able to continue you have to take a plane as a loss and that is really good for me. So now I say “Hey you needed to give me an OOL opportunity so please redo that combat starting from round 2 on.” To make matters worse the battle continued and you gave me the opportunity to get further hits for free. If on round 2 or 3 the cruiser had hit and I killed another unit I can say to myself “Hmm, I would have taken the cruiser but since I got two hits I will let the battle stand.” But in this case since I know I did not get any more hits I don’t want the battle to stand and I want to take the cruiser forcing you to either let my sub live by taking the destroyer or losing a plane and giving me another shot with my sub for a hit. I am ahead either way because you continued.
In essence, you are giving me a huge advantage by not asking for OOL and frankly you do not want to do that.
As I said this is for future reference only. I am not going to make you redo the battle from round 2 on since this is a just for fun game. I assure you if this was a tournament game I would make you redo it. You get a free lesson out of this one. :)
-
TripleA Turn Summary: Italians round 3
TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 4.0.0
Game History
Round: 3 Purchase Units - Italians Italians buy 4 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; Politics - Italians Italians takes Political Action: Political Action Italians To War With Chinese Italians succeeds on action: Political Action Italians To War With Chinese: Changing Relationship for Italians and Chinese from Neutrality to War Combat Move - Italians 3 artilleries and 4 infantry moved from Bulgaria to Greece 1 bomber and 2 fighters moved from Southern Italy to Greece 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from Libya to Tobruk 1 artillery moved from Italian Somaliland to Ethiopia Combat - Italians Battle in Ethiopia Italians attack with 1 artillery British defend with 1 armour and 1 artillery Italians roll dice for 1 artillery in Ethiopia, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits British roll dice for 1 armour and 1 artillery in Ethiopia, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0.83 expected hits 1 artillery owned by the Italians lost in Ethiopia British win with 1 armour and 1 artillery remaining. Battle score for attacker is -4 Casualties for Italians: 1 artillery Battle in Tobruk Italians attack with 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry British defend with 1 infantry Italians roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry in Tobruk, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits British roll dice for 1 infantry in Tobruk, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the British and 1 infantry owned by the Italians lost in Tobruk Italians win, taking Tobruk from British with 1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0 Casualties for Italians: 1 infantry Casualties for British: 1 infantry Battle in Greece Italians attack with 3 artilleries, 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 4 infantry Neutral_Allies defend with 4 infantry Italians roll dice for 3 artilleries, 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 4 infantry in Greece, round 2 : 3/10 hits, 3.83 expected hits Neutral_Allies roll dice for 4 infantry in Greece, round 2 : 3/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits 3 infantry owned by the Neutral_Allies and 3 infantry owned by the Italians lost in Greece Italians roll dice for 3 artilleries, 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 1 infantry in Greece, round 3 : 3/7 hits, 3.00 expected hits Neutral_Allies roll dice for 1 infantry in Greece, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Neutral_Allies and 1 infantry owned by the Italians lost in Greece Italians win, taking Greece from Neutral_Allies with 3 artilleries, 1 bomber and 2 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0 Casualties for Italians: 4 infantry Casualties for Neutral_Allies: 4 infantry Non Combat Move - Italians 2 fighters moved from Greece to Southern Italy 1 aaGun moved from Bulgaria to Greece 1 bomber moved from Greece to Southern Italy 2 armour moved from Eastern Poland to Bessarabia 2 mech_infantrys moved from Slovakia Hungary to Bessarabia 1 aaGun and 4 infantry moved from France to Normandy Bordeaux 2 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Western Germany 1 aaGun moved from Northern Italy to Southern Italy Place Units - Italians 3 infantry placed in Southern Italy 1 infantry placed in Northern Italy Turn Complete - Italians Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 2 Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 97 Sea Zone. Rolls: 5,2 Italians collect 12 PUs (2 lost to blockades); end with 13 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
Italians regular : -1.50 Neutral_Allies regular : 2.33 British regular : 0.83 -
@AndrewAAGamer said in L20 AndrewAAGamer (X) vs oysteilo (A+58) OOB:
However, in this case you rolled for me. I now know that I got a hit and for you to be able to continue you have to take a plane as a loss and that is really good for me. So now I say “Hey you needed to give me an OOL opportunity so please redo that combat starting from round 2 on.”
all fair and valid points, except you would never be allowed to do that (continue from round 2). You could either redo the whole battle or redo the whole round by rules.
-
@ksmckay said in L20 AndrewAAGamer (X) vs oysteilo (A+58) OOB:
all fair and valid points, except you would never be allowed to do that (continue from round 2). You could either redo the whole battle or redo the whole round by rules.
Thank you @ksmckay ! At AAMC our rules were that all dice rolls stand from the point of the error/assumption and before same and only the dice after the error/assumption had to be rerolled. Our gaming group uses those same rules so I am used to them.
However based on your comment I double checked the rules here and you are absolutely correct! (Emphasis added by me.)
-
8 - Allowed Assumptions during gameplay - The purpose of assumptions is to reduce the number of game stoppages for opponent decisions (scrambling, casualty choice, intercepting, submerging, kamikazes). Because you are assuming a decision for your opponent, the opponent must always be given the benefit of the doubt, and moderators will always decide in this manner.
-
8a - Scrambling/intercept/submerge/kamikaze assumptions - When you make an assumption, you are accepting the risk that your opponent will disagree after seeing your turn. If your opponent takes issue with an assumption, you should come to an agreement about how to handle it. If you don’t agree, then the defender can require that the entire combat phase be re-rolled from the beginning. Or, you may seek a moderator ruling.
So it is not as bad here as where I played before but it is still bad because I get to see the final result. I can go “Well, I only got one hit and so I think I will have him redo the battle.” Or “WOW I got three hits - cool”. Either way you are putting yourself at a disadvantage by not waiting so I would suggest waiting.
-
-
@ksmckay said in L20 AndrewAAGamer (X) vs oysteilo (A+58) OOB:
redo the whole round by rules.
Wait I just caught this. Are you saying just because I didn’t wait in one battle that my Opponent could have me reroll the entire Combat Phase again? So, as an example, I have 6 battles and in one I make an assumption and continue and every else I have great dice so my Opponent can ask me to reroll all the battles? If so that means you should never make an assumption as that is mighty dang powerful.
-
@AndrewAAGamer said in L20 AndrewAAGamer (X) vs oysteilo (A+58) OOB:
@ksmckay said in L20 AndrewAAGamer (X) vs oysteilo (A+58) OOB:
redo the whole round by rules.
Wait I just caught this. Are you saying just because I didn’t wait in one battle that my Opponent could have me reroll the entire Combat Phase again? So, as an example, I have 6 battles and in one I make an assumption and continue and every else I have great dice so my Opponent can ask me to reroll all the battles? If so that means you should never make an assumption as that is mighty dang powerful.
yeah thats what the rules say. I have never seen anyone request the entire round be rerolled but I suppose it would be within the rules. thats what the bolded part in 8a says.
Stiff penalty for assumption, moderator might be able to rule with some discretion in some extreme example but still. Best to establish some general behavior at beginning of games
-
If you accept my selection in 125 its cool! I realize now that it could make a difference. And i will be more carefull in the future with respect to selection.
My goal waa to clear the zone and with that in mind i felt i gave you the best option!
-
@oysteilo yeah, i think this was definitely one that is 50/50 or maybe 40/60. you didnt come in with overwhelming force by any means and so saving the sub or at least forcing an air casualty is a definite possibility. Probably not likely but far from obvious. But i hate waiting too…
-
I have 3 units at combined power of 9 vs 2 units at 4. It does not qualify as “overhaling”, but describing it as 50:50 isnt exactly right either…
With that said, i should have asked for selection. I understand that his goal is to deny the objective. And his best option of doing that is to keep the sub.
After a 1:1 result in round 1 i guess heis 1/24 to survive with the sub and 1/72 to survive with the cruiser.
Both are fairly bad odds, but he has the right to choose for himself.
I am happy to roll a one for the sub and s 2 for the destroyer and a 4 for the bomber.
Thats up to Andrew
-
good chance you get 1 hit and a decent chance he gets 1 hit. if he loses the cruiser first, then you would have to lose an air unit. or if he gets lucky and his sub happens to hit (1/6) you have to lose the dd. and if you decide to save your dd then its sitting in 125 for him to take out next turn.
your numbers make no sense.
-
after seeing that you only got one hit, he as at minimum a 16% chance of having a unit survive at the end of the battle if he loses the cruiser first. if he loses the sub first, the odds go down to ~3%. So losing the cruiser first is 5 times more likely to result in units at the end of the battle.
-
@ksmckay said in L20 AndrewAAGamer (X) vs oysteilo (A+58) OOB:
yeah, i think this was definitely one that is 50/50 or maybe 40/60.
What @ksmckay is saying that it is a 50/50 or 40/60 choice as to what unit to take first, not the end results of the battle. If you had asked I probably would have taken the cruiser for the reasons ksmckay already pointed out.
- The most likely result was I was going to get at least one hit on defense on round 1
- It gives me the best chance of survival with at least one unit
- It gives me the best chance of negating the Russian NO which was my only real goal
- I can always kill a remaining DD with the Italians
However, as I said I am okay with the battle as is. I only wanted to point it out as a learning experience for you and it turned out to be a learning experience for me as I did not understand the rules here. So AWESOME!
-
So…… Just to make the statistics clear (at least from my perspective. I can be wrong of course, but don’t think I am). So, we assume both sides get one hit. Andrew hits with the cruiser so I can select any unit as a casualty. My goal is to clear the zone for the Soviet objective. In my book there are two options:
Option 1. Cruiser is down, and I must lose the fighter.
In this case the sub must hit, and the destroyer and the bomber must miss. Any other result and the Soviet objective is cleared. The odds for this are 1/6 x 2/3 x 1/3 = 1/27 or about 3,7%. TUV for attacker is -6
Option 2. Sub is down and I lose the destroyer.
In this case there will be two rounds of combat if you want to deny the Soviet objective. It means the cruiser must kill the fighter and the bomber AND remain itself. The odds here are 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/3 = 1/12 for round 1 and in addition it is 1/2 x 1/3 = 1/6 in round 2. In total this is 1/12 x 1/6 = 1/72 or 1,4 %. TUV for attacker is – 24
If you want to have a shot at denying the Soviet objective option 1 is about 2.5 times better than option 2, but this is still an unlikely result. If you want to cause maximum damage on defense option 2 is the way to go as it is 4 times better. I did not think this through good enough while doing the battle and I ask for apology for that. I think Andrew has accepted the result and I thank him for pointing this out. I should have asked for selection here, no doubt!
As I am the attacker, I can dictate the terms above and I don’t understand how @ksmckay estimates that losing the cruiser is 5 times better in this situation.
Its kind of interesting that such a simple battle can create this discussion. Good contributions from Andrew and ksmckay!
-
TripleA Turn Summary: French round 3
TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 4.0.0
Game History
Round: 3 Purchase Units - ANZAC ANZAC buy 2 submarines and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - ANZAC 1 destroyer moved from 54 Sea Zone to 44 Sea Zone 1 transport moved from 41 Sea Zone to 60 Sea Zone Combat - ANZAC Battle in 44 Sea Zone ANZAC attack with 1 destroyer Japanese defend with 1 transport 1 transport owned by the Japanese lost in 44 Sea Zone ANZAC win, taking 44 Sea Zone from Neutral with 1 destroyer remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7 Casualties for Japanese: 1 transport Non Combat Move - ANZAC 1 submarine moved from 63 Sea Zone to 54 Sea Zone 1 cruiser moved from 26 Sea Zone to 54 Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from Burma to Yunnan 2 fighters moved from India to Yunnan 2 infantry moved from Iraq to Northwest Persia Place Units - ANZAC 2 submarines and 1 transport placed in 62 Sea Zone Turn Complete - ANZAC ANZAC collect 10 PUs; end with 10 PUs Trigger ANZAC 1 Control Original And Malaya: ANZAC met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 15 PUs Combat Move - French Non Combat Move - French 1 destroyer moved from 76 Sea Zone to 79 Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from French Equatorial Africa to Anglo Egyptian Sudan 1 infantry moved from Iraq to Syria 1 fighter moved from Gibraltar to Syria 3 infantry moved from Algeria to Tunisia Turn Complete - FrenchCombat Hit Differential Summary :
-
@oysteilo you are missing something or else talking about something completely irrelevant.
The decision point (your decision to select the sub vs cruiser) comes before seeing the defensive dice. So the discussion regarding the cruiser hit and subsequent odds is meaningless.
The real discussion is as the defender I see that you got one hit. So if I choose the cruiser as casualty, then I get to roll defensive dice and I have a 1/6 chance that my sub hits and you have to lose the dd since you cant take air as casualty for a sub hit and so the battle is over. Russian objective will be denied for at least 2 turns.
16% is about 5 times more than the 3% or 2% result you are debating.
Its at least 16% because even if the sub misses there are possible outcomes that you go through that also provide a way out.
All your discussions are based on knowing that the sub misses and cruiser hits which happens after the casualty choice and so has nothing to do with the discussion.
Kyle
-
all right. Maybe we talk about different situations, I dont know.
Initially I roll 3 dice and get one hit. Then I need to make a selection. Lets now assume the cruiser is removed.
Defender fire sub, zero hits and the “dead” cruiser fire and gets a hit. Now lets assume the british fighter is removed.
In this situation there is a defending german sub left vs an attacking british destroyer and a bomber. Are you saying, in this situation if the german sub hits, the british destroyer and bomber dont get to fire? That is how I read your post
-
Defender fire sub, zero hits and the “dead” cruiser fire and gets a hit. Now lets assume the british fighter is removed.
That happens after you made the casualty selection. We are talking about the casualty selection process.
Unless you know what the dice are going to be before they are rolled - you don’t, then you cant talk about the defender dice.
The point is -
As defender I see that attacker got one hit. What casualty choice is best.
If I pick the cruiser, then I have a 16% chance of keeping the sub and surviving the battle, and denying the russian NO for two more turns.If I pick the sub, then I have <3% chance of having any units survive.
You keep saying
Defender fire sub, zero hits and the “dead” cruiser fire and gets a hit. Now lets assume the british fighter is removed.
But that is a completely different situation then what we are talking about. At that point there is no decision to be made and no discussion.
-
sorry for my slow behaviour… I get it now. At the point where I rolled one hit out of 3, the point is, the defender COULD score two hits. We just dont know.
Fair point. Again, I am sorry
-
@oysteilo
No need to apologize.Sorry for me continuing to drag this out. I promise this will be my last post on the subject.
But it isnt a matter of two hits. When the defender rolls all he needs is the 16% chance that the sub hits for him to effectively win the battle. The cruiser doesnt matter - Two hits would just be icing on the cake, but the result would be no different. One hit by the sub and the battle is over. While 16% odds arent great, they are far better than the 3% odds the defender started with. But once you only rolled one offensive hit, he has a way out that allows for a 16% chance at a pretty decent result.
None of this to say that there arent good reasons to select the sub as casualty first. But there is a very legitimate and reasonable argument for selecting the cruiser first, just depends on your goals.
Sub first definitely provides the best option at dealing damage to the british. But cruiser first, is the best chance at direct harm to the russians. Considering Russia is clearly priority number one for the axis and defending russia is priority number one for the allies, its closer to a toss up then it might seem.
-
Cool. I rest my case!
Suggested Topics
