Should Germany take Egypt first turn?

[questioneer]

I have tried this and been on the winning end and the losing end of this.  The move is risky, but not sound strategically.  Holding off is the better way to do this.  If you risk all to get Egypt for Italy on G1 you will be giving up something else on another front (Russian front, France, naval or air support).  Don’t get me wrong, winning this battle is awesome but risky- definitely, a gambit.  The question to ask yourself is whether or not you can live with losing the battle!!!- especially in a forceful KGF game.

:|

Questioneer

[atarihuana]

my reasoning too. i dont like hitting it G1 :)

[Bardoly]

@questioneer:

I have tried this and been on the winning end and the losing end of this.  The move is risky, but not sound strategically.  Holding off is the better way to do this.  If you risk all to get Egypt for Italy on G1 you will be giving up something else on another front (Russian front, France, naval or air support).  Don’t get me wrong, winning this battle is awesome but risky- definitely, a gambit.  The question to ask yourself is whether or not you can live with losing the battle!!!- especially in a forceful KGF game.

:|

Questioneer

How can you say that this move is too risky or a gambit?

2 Inf, 1 Art, 2 Arm, 1 Bomber vs. 2 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Arm, and 1 Fighter

That’s 15 Attack with 6 units vs. 13 Defense with only 5 units.  You should win every time.  Of course, sometimes the dice go against you, but one can’t help that.  Someone could say that one should never attack unless one has double the attack and number of units, but that won’t win the game.  Yes, one must take some risks, (When playing with die rolls, you are forced to do so.)  but if you look at the rest of the moves I laid out, the odds are in your favor pretty well.  Also, if the first round goes badly, then you can always cut your losses and retreat to Algeria with whatever is left.

With this move, you are still taking your NO from Russia, France is still defended well enough to hold, Your Air units are in okay positions, and UK’s Navy is decimated.  They only have 1 Battleship and 1 Transport left.

So my answer is, of course one can live if one loses this battle, but one shouldn’t lose this battle.

[GoekaWar]

It’s 15 vs 13 by the way, 1 inf, attacks with a 2 with art. :-D

Axisgreetings,GoekaWar

[captainjack]

@questioneer:

I have tried this and been on the winning end and the losing end of this.  The move is risky, but not sound strategically.  Holding off is the better way to do this.  If you risk all to get Egypt for Italy on G1 you will be giving up something else on another front (Russian front, France, naval or air support).  Don’t get me wrong, winning this battle is awesome but risky- definitely, a gambit.  The question to ask yourself is whether or not you can live with losing the battle!!!- especially in a forceful KGF game.
:|
Questioneer

I think you can live with losing this battle.  If nothing else, it weakens the UK enough that they can’t hold TJ, Egypt, and advance to Libya.  If UK takes Libya, then Italy must retake it, or they don’t get their NO; AND that means that they can’t work on Egypt & TJ for another round which prevents them from getting their second NO.
Actually, on G1 when I attack Egypt, I don’t use my bomber (I use the bomber to take out UK navy).  I just attack with my Libya troops and an inf/arm on the transport.  I know these odds aren’t even close to winning, but I guess I look at it as an investment into Italy, that will (hopefully) pay off later.
Thanks.

[Jennifer]

I once made the mistake of not even TRYING to hit Egypt with Germany.

The result was 4 Infantry, Artillery, Armor, Fighter, Bomber, Industrial Complex on UK 1.  It was not pretty.  Would be worse if the SZ 35 fleet was not sunk since they could bring two more units from India to help.

Needless to say, it’s a nightmare for Italy/Germany at that point. (Algeria should have been taken as well, showing English forces on both sides of Libya.)

[a44bigdog]

I attack the Egypt the same as captainjack, and there are two things I have noticed. In most battles after round 1 you have a good idea which way it is headed. This means taking the transported infantry and armor as casualties and retreating the Libyan forces is always an option if things do not look good. I know what the odds calculators say but I would say that I have seen Germany win this probably a bit over half the time, and interestingly enough when Germany wins probably 90% of those times it has 2 armor left. Which is no where near what the odds show to be the expected results.

To me Egypt is worth taking a crack at. If I win great. If I don’t it isn’t the end of the world. If the UK does manage to sink the Italian navy that also is not the end of the world either.

[allies_fly]

@a44bigdog:

I attack the Egypt the same as captainjack, and there are two things I have noticed. In most battles after round 1 you have a good idea which way it is headed. This means taking the transported infantry and armor as casualties and retreating the Libyan forces is always an option if things do not look good. I know what the odds calculators say but I would say that I have seen Germany win this probably a bit over half the time, and interestingly enough when Germany wins probably 90% of those times it has 2 armor left. Which is no where near what the odds show to be the expected results.

To me Egypt is worth taking a crack at. If I win great. If I don’t it isn’t the end of the world. If the UK does manage to sink the Italian navy that also is not the end of the world either.

I am coming to think that’s a wise move too.

I prefer to take out the UK fleet in sz2 with the bomber G1.  This allows the G1 5 tank buy to be acceptable as UK can not really try to take France and if they do, there navy would likely lost as well.  Actually, France is like cheese to the mouse…. bait :)

[Richter von Manthofen]

YES

[captainjack]

@a44bigdog:

I attack the Egypt the same as captainjack, and there are two things I have noticed. In most battles after round 1 you have a good idea which way it is headed. This means taking the transported infantry and armor as casualties and retreating the Libyan forces is always an option if things do not look good. I know what the odds calculators say but I would say that I have seen Germany win this probably a bit over half the time, and interestingly enough when Germany wins probably 90% of those times it has 2 armor left. Which is no where near what the odds show to be the expected results.

To me Egypt is worth taking a crack at. If I win great. If I don’t it isn’t the end of the world. If the UK does manage to sink the Italian navy that also is not the end of the world either.

Yeah, that’s similiar to my results also; of the times I’ve won Egypt as Germany in round 1 I’ve had 1 tank left about half of the time and 2 tanks left the other half of the times.

[Jennifer]

I think the point is, Germany should always ATTEMPT Egypt, especially since you can retreat from an amphibious assault now. (Not the units coming by transport, but the rest can and that makes life easier on all fronts!)

[atarihuana]

hm, what u guys think…  is a factory in egypt for italy a good idea?

[Jennifer]

A factory in Egypt for England seems to be working out nicely.

If Italy is strong enough to afford a complex in Egypt, the game is pretty much lost anyway.

[Ó Ruanaidh]

That is assuming that England is even in possession of Egypt, which this thread hopefully has limited the chances of. Being a British player primarily, I would not dare make a complex in Egypt, it is much to close to Italy and Southern Europe, and it only has 2 ipc’s, so South Africa has the same benefits without the risks, I’d throw on there instead of risking losing Egypt to the Italians anyday, for what happens when the Italians take Egypt? You might as well give up dreams of holding Africa.

[Jennifer]

If Egypt was not attacked on Germany 1, then Egypt IS in England’s hands on Round 1.  (And it should have 4 infantry, artillery, armor, fighter and bomber on it at least. Which should be plenty to thwart Italy from taking it.)

[Ó Ruanaidh]

Sure it would be in the possession of the U.K. on turn 1, but where do all those pieces come from (besides the planes, I know where they would come from), assuming that the Germans did attack on their turn? Even if the British survived that attack I doubt they’d have all the troops you say, unless they sacrificed India to bolster Egypt.

[Uncle_Joe]

They start with 2 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Arm, 1 Ftr in Egypt. If Germany doesnt attack, the Brits can move in 2 Inf from Trans-Jordan. The bomber, I assume, would be a survivor of the Brit attack on the Italian fleet (assuming the CA/DD off Gibraltar werent sunk and the Brits made that attack). Other than that, I dont know why you would want the bomber in there).

If, for whatever reason, the Japanese dont kill the TR/DD off India, then the Brits can reinforce from there (obviously at the cost of India). Personally as Britain, if the Germans attack and fail, I evacuate the Fighter to India (assuming its obvious I cant hold off Italy). If the Germans dont attack, then I reinforce from T-J only (I dont weaken India). If Egypt is not attacked by Germany, then I’ll tend to drop the IC in South Africa. If it does fall, then it depends on the rest of the global situation.

[atarihuana]

hm i was talking about an italian complex in egypt, bought on IT2 ;)  here is what happend.

in a KIF game, G1 took egypt. so yes axis did get italy its 2nd NO and 20+ IPC for one or two rounds but it dindt help. IT was SBRed so heavily there was no point in repairing factory damage. he was basically down to purtchasing 2-3 inf a turn… and with italian navy sunk at round 4 or 5 only a defesive tool for germany ( africa retaken by allies at that point.)

so we have come to the conclusion that italy really needs an IC in egypt to be of any help to germany.  by the time allies have taken egypt and the IC , japan will be there to enter land war against US in africa. an IC really commits one of UK/US to really fight for africa or UK  goes under 20 IPC… this gains time for japan to reach the european theatre, this takes pressure of germany.

if G1 takes egypt, italy can only shuffle about 6 -10 units over to africa before his navy is sunk. plus he cant really produce in italy cuz he needs to repair factory damage.