AldoRaine (Allies +6) vs AKreider2 BM3

[akreider2]

You got lucky on India. You had a 50% chance of winning that battle (and getting stuck in Burma) - though maybe the odds were better by the end of the second round?

[akreider2]

So it was down to 27%-28% of winning when you would of made the decision to stay for round 3 - did you test it out?

[AldoRaine]

I was seeing a 99% chance of victory. I got really lucky in the last round but i definitely had strong odds. As far as getting stuck in Burma it would not have been ideal but it was either attack or lose India.

[AldoRaine]

Here is what i saw for the battle.

[akreider2]

You had 99% chance of winning, and a good expected TUV, but if you won the battle you would have lost India (at least according to my simulations - unless I made a mistake - and I accounted for factors like the US airbase that you built) with a good expected TUV for me (or at least one worth doing and the reason why I stacked in Burma instead of waiting 1-2 rounds to build up).

I thought you might retreat to W. India. On the other hand that wasn’t a great choice. Now I have to figure out whether to go for India or not…

[akreider2]

There isn’t any way to use battle simulator to easily pull units from two different territories and have them fight, is there?

Eg. you can click on one territory, but then have to manually add the invaders if they are in a different territory.

[AldoRaine]

@akreider2 not that I know of. I know you can select the number of rounds for the battle and it will give you a TUV.

For India it was trying to make the best of a bad situation and got really lucky. I fully expected to be trapped in Burma and basically giving India 1 more turn. Might be for nothing but we will see.

[akreider2]

Italians are thinking of doing something either very brave or very stupid. Or both =)

[akreider2]

Testing Forum poster

Test summary from TripleA, engine version: 1.9, time: 8:54:35 PM
Savegame

[AldoRaine]

Sorry misread your question about the battle calc. No I wish there was what you mentioned…

[akreider2]

For Russia, I took the default AA gun casualty. If you want to change it you can do so in Edit Mode.

[akreider2]

TripleA Turn Summary: Italians round 5

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.4

Game History

Round: 5

    Purchase Units - Italians
        Italians buy 1 artillery and 5 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Italians
        1 bomber moved from Libya to Egypt
        1 armour moved from Western Ukraine to Russia
        1 armour, 1 artillery, 3 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from Libya to Tobruk
        1 infantry moved from Southern Italy to 97 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 97 Sea Zone to 99 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from 99 Sea Zone to Cyprus
        1 battleship, 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 3 destroyers, 2 fighters and 1 submarine moved from 97 Sea Zone to 98 Sea Zone

    Combat - Italians
        Strategic bombing raid in Egypt
                AA fire in Egypt : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
            Bombing raid in Egypt rolls: 5 and causes: 5 damage to unit: factory_minor
            Bombing raid in Egypt causes 5 damage total. 
        Battle in Cyprus
        Battle in Tobruk
            Italians attack with 1 armour, 1 artillery, 3 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
            British defend with 1 infantry
                Italians roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery, 3 infantry and 1 mech_infantry in Tobruk, round 2 : 1/6 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 infantry in Tobruk, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the British lost in Tobruk
            Italians win, taking Cyprus from British, taking Tobruk from British with 1 armour, 1 artillery, 3 infantry and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for British: 1 infantry
        Battle in 98 Sea Zone
            Italians attack with 1 battleship, 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 3 destroyers, 2 fighters and 1 submarine
            British defend with 1 submarine
                Italians roll dice for 1 submarine in 98 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Italians roll dice for 1 battleship, 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 3 destroyers and 2 fighters in 98 Sea Zone, round 2 : 4/8 hits, 3.67 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 submarine in 98 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
                1 submarine owned by the British lost in 98 Sea Zone
            Italians win, taking 98 Sea Zone from Neutral with 1 battleship, 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 3 destroyers, 2 fighters and 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
            Casualties for British: 1 submarine
        Battle in Russia
            Italians attack with 1 armour
            Russians defend with 4 aaGuns, 1 airfield, 2 armour, 22 artilleries, 1 factory_major, 3 fighters, 35 infantry, 5 mech_infantrys and 1 tactical_bomber
                Italians roll dice for 1 armour in Russia, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 4 aaGuns, 2 armour, 22 artilleries, 3 fighters, 35 infantry, 5 mech_infantrys and 1 tactical_bomber in Russia, round 2 : 24/68 hits, 24.17 expected hits
                1 aaGun owned by the Russians and 1 armour owned by the Italians lost in Russia
            Russians win with 3 aaGuns, 2 armour, 22 artilleries, 3 fighters, 35 infantry, 5 mech_infantrys and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is -1
            Casualties for Italians: 1 armour
            Casualties for Russians: 1 aaGun

    Non Combat Move - Italians
        1 bomber moved from Egypt to Greece
        1 armour moved from Northern Italy to Romania
        2 artilleries and 5 infantry moved from Northern Italy to France

    Place Units - Italians
        1 artillery and 2 infantry placed in Northern Italy
        3 infantry placed in Southern Italy

    Turn Complete - Italians
        Italians collect 14 PUs; end with 15 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Italians : -0.17
British : -0.50
AA fire in Egypt : : -0.17
Russians : -0.17

Savegame

[AldoRaine]

TripleA Turn Summary: ANZAC round 5

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.4

Game History

Round: 5

    Purchase Units - ANZAC
        ANZAC buy 1 infantry and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 4 PUs; 

    Combat Move - ANZAC
        1 transport moved from 62 Sea Zone to 61 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from South Australia to 61 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 61 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 42 Sea Zone to Java
        2 infantry moved from Queensland to 54 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 54 Sea Zone to 41 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 41 Sea Zone to Sumatra

    Combat - ANZAC
        ANZAC creates battle in territory 17 Sea Zone
        ANZAC creates battle in territory 6 Sea Zone
        Battle in Java
        Battle in Sumatra

    Non Combat Move - ANZAC
        2 fighters moved from Iwo Jima to Wake Island
        1 cruiser moved from 17 Sea Zone to 6 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from New South Wales to Queensland

    Place Units - ANZAC
        1 infantry placed in New South Wales
        1 transport placed in 62 Sea Zone

    Turn Complete - ANZAC
        ANZAC collect 18 PUs; end with 22 PUs
        Objective ANZAC 3 Pacific Supply Lines: ANZAC met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 25 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Savegame

[AldoRaine]

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post: ANZAC round 5

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.4

Game History

Round: 5

    Purchase Units - ANZAC
        ANZAC buy 1 infantry and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 4 PUs; 

    Combat Move - ANZAC
        1 transport moved from 62 Sea Zone to 61 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from South Australia to 61 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 61 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 42 Sea Zone to Java
        2 infantry moved from Queensland to 54 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 54 Sea Zone to 41 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 41 Sea Zone to Sumatra

    Combat - ANZAC
        ANZAC creates battle in territory 17 Sea Zone
        ANZAC creates battle in territory 6 Sea Zone
        Battle in Java
        Battle in Sumatra

    Non Combat Move - ANZAC
        2 fighters moved from Iwo Jima to Wake Island
        1 cruiser moved from 17 Sea Zone to 6 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from New South Wales to Queensland

    Place Units - ANZAC
        1 infantry placed in New South Wales
        1 transport placed in 62 Sea Zone

    Turn Complete - ANZAC
        ANZAC collect 18 PUs; end with 22 PUs
        Objective ANZAC 3 Pacific Supply Lines: ANZAC met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 25 PUs
        Turning on Edit Mode
        EDIT: Removing units owned by ANZAC from Wake Island: 2 fighters
        EDIT: Adding units owned by ANZAC to Guam: 2 fighters
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Savegame

[AldoRaine]

TripleA Turn Summary: French round 5

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.4

Game History

Round: 5

    Purchase Units - ANZAC
        ANZAC buy 1 infantry and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 4 PUs; 

    Combat Move - ANZAC
        1 transport moved from 62 Sea Zone to 61 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from South Australia to 61 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 61 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 42 Sea Zone to Java
        2 infantry moved from Queensland to 54 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 54 Sea Zone to 41 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 41 Sea Zone to Sumatra

    Combat - ANZAC
        ANZAC creates battle in territory 17 Sea Zone
        ANZAC creates battle in territory 6 Sea Zone
        Battle in Java
        Battle in Sumatra

    Non Combat Move - ANZAC
        2 fighters moved from Iwo Jima to Wake Island
        1 cruiser moved from 17 Sea Zone to 6 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from New South Wales to Queensland

    Place Units - ANZAC
        1 infantry placed in New South Wales
        1 transport placed in 62 Sea Zone

    Turn Complete - ANZAC
        ANZAC collect 18 PUs; end with 22 PUs
        Objective ANZAC 3 Pacific Supply Lines: ANZAC met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 25 PUs
        Turning on Edit Mode
        EDIT: Removing units owned by ANZAC from Wake Island: 2 fighters
        EDIT: Adding units owned by ANZAC to Guam: 2 fighters
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode

    Combat Move - French
        1 infantry moved from Tunisia to Libya
              French take Libya from Italians

    Combat - French

    Non Combat Move - French

    Turn Complete - French

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Savegame

[akreider2]

I’m re-enacting my combat move for Germany, and despite having 45% odds on winning the Russia attack, I’ve lost 8 times in a row so far (0.8% odds of this happening). Finally won on my 9th try. I’m not superstitious. Just a bit concerned about how random the Triple A local dice is. Is the local dice function different software from using the dice server?

I think I’m losing the game in general (maybe 10% odds of winning), so I’m quite happy to get 45% odds on taking Russia as that will put me in a much better position.

[akreider2]

Round 1 went slightly bad. Down to 29% of winning, but going to continue attacking. Probably will stop if I get to 5%-10% odds.

[akreider2]

Round 2 went very badly, down to 1% odds of winning, retreating to Bryansk.

[akreider2]

TripleA Turn Summary: Germans round 6

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.4

Game History

Round: 6

    Research Technology - Germans

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans buy 3 armour, 12 infantry and 3 mech_infantrys; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Germans
        1 infantry moved from 99 Sea Zone to Crete
        1 bomber moved from France to Normandy Bordeaux
        2 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from France to Normandy Bordeaux
        1 tactical_bomber moved from Western Germany to Normandy Bordeaux
        1 infantry, 1 mech_infantry and 2 tactical_bombers moved from Western Germany to Holland Belgium
        5 infantry moved from Archangel to Smolensk
        10 armour, 8 artilleries, 26 infantry and 25 mech_infantrys moved from Bryansk to Russia
        1 bomber, 2 fighters and 1 mech_infantry moved from Western Ukraine to Russia
        2 bombers moved from Western Germany to Russia

    Combat - Germans
        Battle in Crete
        Battle in Normandy Bordeaux
            Germans attack with 2 artilleries, 1 bomber, 3 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
            British defend with 1 aaGun and 3 infantry; Americans defend with 1 factory_minor, 1 harbour and 1 mech_infantry
                AA fire in Normandy Bordeaux : 1/2 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 tactical_bomber owned by the Germans lost in Normandy Bordeaux
                Germans roll dice for 2 artilleries, 1 bomber and 3 infantry in Normandy Bordeaux, round 2 : 4/6 hits, 2.17 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 aaGun, 3 infantry and 1 mech_infantry in Normandy Bordeaux, round 2 : 0/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                1 aaGun owned by the British and 3 infantry owned by the British lost in Normandy Bordeaux
                Germans roll dice for 2 artilleries, 1 bomber and 3 infantry in Normandy Bordeaux, round 3 : 3/6 hits, 2.17 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 mech_infantry in Normandy Bordeaux, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 mech_infantry owned by the Americans lost in Normandy Bordeaux
            Germans win, taking Crete from Neutral_Allies, taking Normandy Bordeaux from Americans with 2 artilleries, 1 bomber and 3 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
            Casualties for Germans: 1 tactical_bomber
            Casualties for British: 1 aaGun and 3 infantry
            Casualties for Americans: 1 mech_infantry
        Battle in Holland Belgium
            Germans attack with 1 infantry, 1 mech_infantry and 2 tactical_bombers
            Americans defend with 2 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 1 infantry, 1 mech_infantry and 2 tactical_bombers in Holland Belgium, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 2 infantry in Holland Belgium, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Americans lost in Holland Belgium
                Germans roll dice for 1 infantry, 1 mech_infantry and 2 tactical_bombers in Holland Belgium, round 3 : 2/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 infantry in Holland Belgium, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Americans lost in Holland Belgium
            Germans win, taking Holland Belgium from Americans with 1 infantry, 1 mech_infantry and 2 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
            Casualties for Americans: 2 infantry
        Battle in Smolensk
            Germans attack with 5 infantry
            Russians defend with 1 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 5 infantry in Smolensk, round 2 : 2/5 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Smolensk, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Smolensk
            Germans win, taking Smolensk from Russians with 5 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
        Battle in Russia
            Germans attack with 10 armour, 8 artilleries, 3 bombers, 2 fighters, 26 infantry and 26 mech_infantrys
            Russians defend with 3 aaGuns, 1 airfield, 2 armour, 22 artilleries, 1 factory_major, 3 fighters, 35 infantry, 5 mech_infantrys and 1 tactical_bomber
                AA fire in Russia : 1/5 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                1 fighter owned by the Germans lost in Russia
                Germans roll dice for 10 armour, 8 artilleries, 3 bombers, 1 fighter, 26 infantry and 26 mech_infantrys in Russia, round 2 : 17/74 hits, 20.17 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 3 aaGuns, 2 armour, 22 artilleries, 3 fighters, 35 infantry, 5 mech_infantrys and 1 tactical_bomber in Russia, round 2 : 22/68 hits, 24.17 expected hits
                14 infantry owned by the Russians, 22 infantry owned by the Germans and 3 aaGuns owned by the Russians lost in Russia
                Germans roll dice for 10 armour, 8 artilleries, 3 bombers, 1 fighter, 4 infantry and 26 mech_infantrys in Russia, round 3 : 13/52 hits, 16.50 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 2 armour, 22 artilleries, 3 fighters, 21 infantry, 5 mech_infantrys and 1 tactical_bomber in Russia, round 3 : 22/54 hits, 19.50 expected hits
                13 infantry owned by the Russians, 4 infantry owned by the Germans and 18 mech_infantrys owned by the Germans lost in Russia
            8 artilleries owned by the Germans, 10 armour owned by the Germans and 8 mech_infantrys owned by the Germans retreated to Bryansk
            Russians win with 2 armour, 22 artilleries, 3 fighters, 8 infantry, 5 mech_infantrys and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is -64
            Casualties for Germans: 1 fighter, 26 infantry and 18 mech_infantrys
            Casualties for Russians: 3 aaGuns and 27 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Germans
        3 bombers and 1 fighter moved from Russia to Bryansk
        1 infantry moved from Ukraine to Bryansk
        8 mech_infantrys moved from Eastern Poland to Bryansk
        3 artilleries moved from Novgorod to Belarus
        4 mech_infantrys moved from Poland to Western Ukraine
        9 mech_infantrys moved from Germany to Eastern Poland
        1 tactical_bomber moved from Holland Belgium to Eastern Poland
        1 tactical_bomber moved from Holland Belgium to Eastern Poland
        1 bomber moved from Normandy Bordeaux to Eastern Poland
        1 battleship, 1 cruiser, 1 submarine and 1 transport moved from 113 Sea Zone to 115 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Norway to Finland
        1 fighter moved from Southern Italy to Bryansk
        1 tactical_bomber moved from Southern Italy to Bryansk
        1 mech_infantry moved from Eastern Poland to Bryansk
        1 mech_infantry moved from Eastern Poland to Bryansk

    Place Units - Germans
        10 infantry placed in Western Germany
        2 infantry placed in France
        3 mech_infantrys placed in Ukraine
        3 armour placed in Novgorod

    Turn Complete - Germans
        Germans collect 54 PUs; end with 54 PUs
        Trigger Germans 5 Swedish Iron Ore: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 59 PUs
        Objective Germans 7 Control of Balkans: Germans met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 61 PUs
        Objective Germans 2 Control Novgorod Or Volgograd Or Russia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 66 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans : -2.50
AA fire in Russia : : 0.17
Americans : -2.67
AA fire in Normandy Bordeaux : : 0.67
Russians : -0.00

Savegame

[AldoRaine]

TripleA Turn Summary: Russians round 6

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.4

Game History

Round: 6

    Purchase Units - Russians
        Russians buy 1 artillery, 8 infantry and 1 mech_infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Russians
        1 infantry moved from Vologda to Archangel
              Russians take Archangel from Germans
        1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Russia to Smolensk
        3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Russia to Smolensk
        1 submarine moved from 92 Sea Zone to 99 Sea Zone

    Combat - Russians
        Battle in 99 Sea Zone
            Russians attack with 1 submarine
            Italians defend with 1 transport
                1 transport owned by the Italians lost in 99 Sea Zone
                Russians roll dice for 1 submarine in 99 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
            Russians win, taking 99 Sea Zone from Neutral with 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
            Casualties for Italians: 1 transport
        Battle in Smolensk
            Russians attack with 1 artillery, 3 fighters, 3 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
            Germans defend with 5 infantry
                Russians roll dice for 1 artillery, 3 fighters, 3 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Smolensk, round 2 : 2/8 hits, 3.17 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 5 infantry in Smolensk, round 2 : 1/5 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians and 2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Smolensk
                Russians roll dice for 1 artillery, 3 fighters, 2 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Smolensk, round 3 : 1/7 hits, 3.00 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 3 infantry in Smolensk, round 3 : 2/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                2 infantry owned by the Russians and 1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Smolensk
                Russians roll dice for 1 artillery, 3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber in Smolensk, round 4 : 3/5 hits, 2.50 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 2 infantry in Smolensk, round 4 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 artillery owned by the Russians and 2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Smolensk
            Russians win with 3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 2
            Casualties for Russians: 1 artillery and 3 infantry
            Casualties for Germans: 5 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Russians
        3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Smolensk to Russia
        12 infantry moved from Samara to Russia
        1 infantry moved from Rostov to Tambov
        1 infantry moved from Tambov to Russia
        5 infantry moved from Vologda to Russia
        2 aaGuns and 12 infantry moved from Novosibirsk to Vologda
        1 infantry moved from Tambov to Russia
        5 mech_infantrys moved from Russia to Samara

    Place Units - Russians
        1 artillery, 8 infantry and 1 mech_infantry placed in Russia

    Turn Complete - Russians
        Russians collect 25 PUs; end with 25 PUs
        Trigger Russians 7 Great Patriotic War: Russians met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 28 PUs
        Trigger Russians 2 Persia Lend Lease Lane: Russians met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 30 PUs
        Trigger Russians 3 Siberia Lend Lease Lane: Russians met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 32 PUs
        Trigger Russians 1 Lend Lease: Russians met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 34 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans : 0.67
Russians : -2.00

Savegame