O'Connor and Tripoli

[ABWorsham4]

Had O’Connor not been halted by events in Greece would the British have captured Tripoli?

[Witt]

@ABWorsham4 good day.
I don’t know enough about this, but suspect that Tripoli May have been too far. The Desert War was very see saw and always depended on which side had better supplies and supply lines.
Do you know if Connor had planned on advancing further, before HQ decided Greece was more important?

[ABWorsham4]

@Wittmann O’Connor was aggressive. I believe he would have gambled to capture the prize of Tripoli.

[SuperbattleshipYamato]

@witt

I believe that they could have captured Tripoli-however, if Germany launched an all out Mediterranean campaign instead of Barbarossa, Germany would have been able to regain the initiative due to possibly an entire Panzer Army being sent to Libya, or if not possible, Tunisia (historically, Germany made quite good negotiations with Vichy France to get them to join the war on the Axis side, which only stopped after the failure of talks with Spain), crossing the Mareth Line. In the end, Germany would have won especially as they would not have needed to invade Crete (if the British did not move troops to Greece, they wouldn’t garrison men off Crete), allowing for an assault on Malta, and Hitler, summoning all of his “diplomatic strength”, would convince Franco to invade Gibraltar. In the end, the Suez would have fallen. And if the Panzer Army couldn’t reach Cairo, Hitler would also have been able to convince Turkey to join the Axis, or invade Cyprus, which either way, would allow Germany to move into Syria and Iraq, driving from the east to the Suez.

[KaLeu]

An interesting idea, but I don’t think such an Axis strategy would be very likely to occur, for various reasons:

1. Russia. There was not going to be anything “instead of Barbarossa”. It wasn’t just a strategic issue, it was also an ideological one. Fighting Bolshevism and conquering “Lebensraum” in the East were key components of what the Nazis stood for.
2. Spain. Hitler and Franco were not exactly good friends. After their single meeting at Hendaye, Hitler was so annoyed at Franco that he told Mussolini he’d rather have four of his teeth pulled than ever have to talk to Franco again. Likewise, Franco was very mistrustful of Hitler, and even made arrangements for his succession in case he would be detained by the Germans. Franco wanted not only Gibraltar, but also a part of French Morocco, which Hitler was unwilling to give him because it would have jeopardized his relatinshup with Vichy France.
3. Turkey. The Turkish government made every effort to stay out of the war in spite of diplomatic attempts by Germany and Britain, who each wanted to lure Turkey to their side. Turkey only declared war on Germany in 1945 in order to join the winners when the outcome was no longer in doubt.

[SuperbattleshipYamato]

@kaleu

This is all true.

Firstly, it’s possible that Hitler could have restrained himself for the moment and go against the Mediterranean, a decision support by Raeder and Goring.

Secondly, the main reason Franco was so toxic was that before Hitler’s meeting with Franco, he sent Wilhelm Canaris, a secret member of the German resistance movement, to negotiate with Franco, and Canaris said that he though that Germany was going to lose the war and Hitler was planning to move to the east (it’s said that Hitler was actually going back and forth between the Mediterranean and the Soviet Union). If Hitler really committed to it, he would have been more forceful, and Franco would have relented, especially if the Battle Of Britain had not concluded yet. If Vichy France entered the war, Hitler might have been able to mediate between it, Italy, and Spain about North Africa.

Finally, a similar situation could have appeared with Turkey, where if Hitler really did everything possible to convince them, it might have worked out. If it didn’t, Germany could use their paratroopers (as they would not be beaten up at Crete, due to the British heading for Tripoli) to possibly take Cyprus, depending on the result of an airborne invasion of Malta. Due to no British intervention in Greece, there would have been no disaster at Cape Matapan, and Italy’s navy, along with a Luftwaffe not burdened with commitments on the Eastern Front, could have swept the waters around Cyprus (as likely as not), and launch an amphibious invasion if paratroopers alone can’t cut it. If Cyprus is taken, a leap into Vichy French Syria would be in order. From there, Germany can launch a massive offensive against the Suez Canal, which Britain cannot hold with an attack on two fronts. Additionally, Germany will have support from Iraq, which won’t be destroyed with direct aid from Germany and Italy.