I voted for Midway, but it is more a combination of Coral Sea and Midway in my view. A bit of background. In 1991, I spent several weeks with John Winton assisting him in researching his book on Ultra in the Pacific. We spent a lot of time looking through the declassified intercepts and intercept summaries. I have been studying the Solomon Islands campaign for 40 plus years, and in May of 2002, I spent 15 days in the Solomon Islands assisting Dr. Robert Ballard in his search for JFK’s PT-109. I was responsible for wreck identification, onboard historian, general technical reference person, and explosives and weapons expert. I have also assisted in identifying the wreckage of a Japanese carrier sunk at Midway that is on the bottom in 17,000 feet of water.
First, one of the more interesting intercepts they we read was one concerning the transfer of the surviving air crew from the Shokaku and Zuikaku to the carriers that were attacking the Aleutians. Basically, the Japanese by May of 1941 were short of trained carrier aircrew. The combination of losses at Coral Sea, Midway, and the Aleutians therefore crippled the Japanese to the point where they no longer could field qualified pilots to the surviving carriers.
Second, the Guadalcanal campaign and the advance up the Solomon Islands by the Allies subjected the Japanese to the devastating attrition that they could simply not afford. Losses there could not be replaced Japanese planning was heavily dependent on the decisive battle, with the enemy suffering massive losses while the Japanese were relatively unscathed, as occurred at the Battle of Tsushima. A campaign of attrition was the last thing that the Japanese planned for.
Third, the Japanese Army, after having the 23rd Infantry Division mangled by the Russians at Nomohan/Khalkin-Gol, had no desire whatsoever to engage the Russians again on anything like remotely even terms. Hence, they did not bother the Russians for the entire war. Russian merchant ships carrying supplies from the West Coast to Vladivostok sailed through the Sea of Japan up to the Russian declaration of war in 1945. The Japanese Army had limited knowledge of the US and Britain, and much of what they had was filtered through the Germans. The Japanese Army was calling the shots in starting the war, not the Navy. They needed resources, not Hawaii.
To Be Continued
