2018 Championship Final: JDOW vs Adam (Allies+12) BM3“

[Adam514]

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post: Americans round 3

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.3

Game History

Round: 3

    Purchase Units - Americans
        Americans buy 1 carrier, 1 destroyer, 2 fighters, 2 infantry, 2 submarines and 2 transports; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Americans
        1 bomber moved from New Zealand to 41 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from 54 Sea Zone to 41 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Queensland to 54 Sea Zone
        1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 54 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 33 Sea Zone to Caroline Islands
        1 battleship and 1 cruiser moved from 54 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from Hawaiian Islands to 26 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 26 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 33 Sea Zone to Caroline Islands

    Combat - Americans
        Battle in Caroline Islands
            Americans attack with 1 artillery and 3 infantry
            Japanese defend with 1 aaGun, 1 airfield, 1 harbour and 2 infantry
                Americans roll dice for 1 battleship and 1 cruiser in Caroline Islands, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 artillery and 3 infantry in Caroline Islands, round 2 : 0/4 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                Japanese roll dice for 1 aaGun and 2 infantry in Caroline Islands, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Japanese, 1 aaGun owned by the Japanese and 2 infantry owned by the Americans lost in Caroline Islands
                Americans roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Caroline Islands, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                Japanese roll dice for 1 infantry in Caroline Islands, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Americans lost in Caroline Islands
                Americans roll dice for 1 artillery in Caroline Islands, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Japanese roll dice for 1 infantry in Caroline Islands, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 artillery in Caroline Islands, round 5 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Japanese roll dice for 1 infantry in Caroline Islands, round 5 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Japanese and 1 artillery owned by the Americans lost in Caroline Islands
            Japanese win with no units remaining. Battle score for attacker is -2
            Casualties for Americans: 1 artillery and 3 infantry
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 aaGun and 2 infantry
        Battle in 41 Sea Zone
            Americans attack with 1 bomber and 1 fighter
            Japanese defend with 1 battleship
                Americans roll dice for 1 bomber and 1 fighter in 41 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                Japanese roll dice for 1 battleship in 41 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 bomber and 1 fighter in 41 Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                Japanese roll dice for 1 battleship in 41 Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 fighter owned by the Americans lost in 41 Sea Zone
                Americans roll dice for 1 bomber in 41 Sea Zone, round 4 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
            Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the Japanese
                Japanese roll dice for 1 battleship in 41 Sea Zone, round 4 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 bomber owned by the Americans lost in 41 Sea Zone
            Japanese win with 1 battleship remaining. Battle score for attacker is -22
            Casualties for Americans: 1 bomber and 1 fighter

    Non Combat Move - Americans

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Americans : -2.50
Japanese : 2.33

Savegame

[Adam514]

I concede. I can’t do much with this.

[arathorn]

@JDOW

Congratulations to JDOW! League Champion!

[JDOW]

Wow, I did not expect to win at this stage. Caro was crazy, sorry about that dice disaster. I still can’t resist to mention that I believe it is better to just send your 5 air over the AA and risk 1/2 plane but save the ground units.

Altogether, the dice didn’t show any extreme results before this US turn and this always favors the Axis. G1 went smoothly, and all the air strikes in Europe, and especially at Burma, went well.
Combined with a flawless J1. That nullified the bid and put Axis in an advantage.

Still, let’s pretend you take Caro eg losing just 1 ground and kill the BB with the bomber remaining, I still think, that Axis are in a dominant position from there as they will get India with minimal concessions. Either you retreat and I can take it cheaply or Indians make a stand and get slaughtered. This comes with positional concessions but annihilating all Indians with minimal loss of air is an even better compensation.

I believe I exploited the fact that Axis still have the advantage in BM if played well early despite a 12ish bid. Plus, I guess I exploited that you leave India vulnerable in the first turns in order to apply enough pressure on Germans.
May I ask, is there anything you regret or wish you made different before that US3?
I have to say, I am not a fan of the 98 sub bid without making a Taranto. I believe Allies have better options for a bid to make a difference in turn 1 then.

Anyway, thanks a lot for the game Adam! You are a great sportsman and always a great opponent to play!
In the end, I am just glad I won. Playing long games against your Allies is a nightmare for sure so I am just happy that I could as much of an advantage early to discourage you enough to go for that route.

[Adam514]

It would have been 4 planes that could reach Carolines, since I need to keep a carrier for a potential pickup for the fighter for the BB attack.

The plan was to block Sumatra with French DD making India not very enticing, take Korea and Manchuria and advance with Chinese. Then you’d have to choose between committing everything to India and letting the Allies in the Pacific for a few turns, enough that I wouldn’t go for India if I were you in that position. I don’t think Japan would have been in that good of a position if everything went well in this US turn.

I’m a big fan of 92 stack personally, and your German opening made the 92 stack an even better move relative to other options. I wouldn’t have done anything differently this game.

[JDOW]

Yeah, UK harbour at Persia would have had its merits. With 5 ground units less, the India attack would have been more dicey, but still with an average TUV of +9 which is still good for Japan in order to take India for good in J.

Re 92 opener. Yep, I saw that preference in your game, that’s why the sub98 bid surprised me.
It made me buy that extra bomber in G1 in order to have better air strike options on 97 in case you made a Taranto.

But I agree, the 98 sub makes the 96 attack more comfortable, removes the 3% chance of failure and makes sure UK loses no plane there.
WIthout Taranto I might have used that bid to maybe allow an attack with UK in Africa.

[JDOW]

@Adam514 said in 2018 Championship Final: JDOW vs Adam (Allies+12) BM3“:

I’m a big fan of 92 stack personally, and your German opening made the 92 stack an even better move relative to other options. I wouldn’t have done anything differently this game.

May I ask, what German opener would have discouraged you to stack 92?

[Adam514]

Something with some transport buy gives 90%+ on UK if 92 stack is done.

You’d need at least 2 planes to defend the landing sea zone too. As Japan I wouldn’t go for India in that situation.

I had some pretty good plans for Allies all around this round. I don’t think the Axis had the decisive advantage before the US turn.

[JDOW]

True. That would have made India dicey and most likely delayed the loss for a turn which would have made a difference. Comes with a rather useless harbour st persia though plus a chance that the Italian bomber gets lucky or forces an ab at persia too:-)

I could have done the India move better by saccing another 2dd to block US and then protect Sumatra better so that the French dd cannot block.

[simon33]

I feel like I’m missing something looking at this game. I’d be pretty ecstatic to have India J4 after a J2 DOW.

Besides that, even with a G1 buy of a CV & TT, to take down Gibraltar don’t you need to clear out the blockers with Italian air? Seems a risky attack with the French fighter still there for the scramble. Or are you (Adam) saying that you’d attack it G3.

[JDOW]

I think Adam might refer to the risk of a G2 sea lion in case UK sends too much to Gib. UK might be vulnerable against 3 TT and 12 air or so? But not sure.

“I feel like I’m missing something looking at this game. I’d be pretty ecstatic to have India J4 after a J2 DOW.”
Me too, although the execution was sloppy by me. I overlooked the Allies’ option to block Sumatra with the French DD supported by a UK harbour.

The “correct” execution would have been to block the US fleet off Java saccing 2 DDs and then to protect both seazone, Java and Sumatra against any strikes. In this setup Japan will become a beast as India is taken with low concessions and I would have been very comfortable that Japan could have easily handled the Chinese and Russians, thanks for the extra money and thanks to the fact that 9 IPC for UK Pac will be permanently taken off the equation, although Allies can trade India for some time if they like.
Still a long route from there but with the US fleet stuck at Caro with no harbour and not amphibious units for at least 3 turns, the Allies had to fight a nasty uphill battle and even with blocking the java fleet off India, the invasion is just postponed for one turn and will still come at low costs for Japan.
I personally still think it is not worth to take a 7% risk at Caro to suffer a potentially game-ending defeat and I would have taken all 4 available air to that attack with no hesitation.

[simon33]

@JDOW said in 2018 Championship Final: JDOW vs Adam (Allies+12) BM3“:

I personally still think it is not worth to take a 7% risk at Caro to suffer a potentially game-ending defeat and I would have taken all 4 available air to that attack with no hesitation.

I’m inclined to agree. I’ve also lost a game due to losing such a battle.

[JuanSpain]

@JDOW What happened here???
One month without connecting and when I check to see how things are evolving in the expected 1st third of the game I find its over! Big surprise. I feel we have lost a great long term game to see.

Congrats to JDOW for the second consecutive very deserved win.

Congrats to Adam for having reached the final. It is always a great prize to reach the end of the competition and enjoy it.

Juan

[JDOW]

Thanks Juan.
I guess the last posts did sum it up. First 2.5 rounds went smoothly for Axis, Allies felt under pressure and increased the risk level by not taking air to Caro. 7% chance of failure materialized and Adam decided not to fight an uphill battle from there.