@DarthMaximus:
I can only talk from my personal experience and I play 90% ADS games yet I base all of my game strats on LL. Whether I move, defend, or attack, I ALWAYS use the LL count to determine if it is a good move or not and then will ADJUST to fit ADS, which might mean (like Jens example) bringing in a few less troops or a few more or slightly shifting a few things to account for potential variance in dice, but the same core moves and positioning hold.
Look, DM, let me break it down for you.
Suppose you are playing Low-Luck with tech going into effect at the beginning of the turn, where Russia doesn’t fly fighters to London on attack Ukraine on R1. Just suppose this is the case. Don’t get bogged down too much in the game details, because what it really comes down to is that under such conditions, the Axis have a 55%+ chance of locking the game right there under Low Luck. 45% chance of shooting themselves in the ass right away, 55% of a win, understand what I’m saying?
Whereas under ADS, the Axis have an aggregate 15% or so chance of locking the game but a 85% chance of shooting themselves in the ass. Percentages here or there, whatever.
So now you’re going to say you don’t play Low-Luck or you don’t use tech. Whatever. I don’t care about that, and neither should you. My original point, and the point I’m still trying to make is that when you have a number of independent-outcome events, the results of which will affect your strategy, it is not a simple matter of reallocating units and “fudging” a LL strategy into an ADS strategy or vice versa. Because the percentage of acceptable-outcomes is far more controlled in LL, you get a picture that looks ENTIRELY DIFFERENT.
If you want to be abstract, then let’s say under Low Luck you have a 99% chance of victory and under ADS you have a 80%. Doesn’t seem like a big difference? But say now that you have four independent outcome battles each of which you must succeed at to make your unit purchase (say eight tanks) effective. Under Low Luck, 99% ^ 4 = 96%, you will probably succeed at each of those four locations. Under ADS, 80%^4 = 41%, you will probably FAIL at at LEAST one of those four locations. Considering that under ADS, you will PROBABLY fail, your purchase has to change, and between the change in the purchase, the change in the possible allocation of your forces between four as opposed to three territories (say, to make certain attacks more certain), and the actual outcome of the dice, your glorious LL strat with a 96% probability of success is a ****-stained rag floating in the wind with 41% probability success under ADS.
The differences in probability COMPOUND over time. This is my point. LL is not ADS, and vice versa.
I’m not going to break down the number of times when such a case happens - there’s plenty of times, like Germany using air to open a territory for Japan tank blitz to Moscow, or early territory trade/claiming, or multiple air/naval/combats to control the Suez - but it does happen. When you’re talking about “shifting a few things”, you might think you’re not making a big change, but think about the aggregate effect of such change over four or five turns, and the changes in unit purchases you make to minimize your risk; the upshot is that your ADS and LL games end up playing radically different; isn’t that the case?! And if that IS the case, then how is it that you can claim that ADS and LL strategies are nearly the same?
At best, you could say that you use LL to calculate the baseline probability of a single combat, then approximate the deviance and add units to minimize risk - but such calculation and approximation of single combats do not singly comprise your STRATEGY; your LL STRATEGY and your ADS STRATEGY are still TOTALLY DIFFERENT.