No fear of airplanes

[Krieghund]

@dinosaur:

Krieghund, thanks for coming to my defense.

My pleasure.

@dinosaur:

I hope I have not given offense while defending my thesis on the merits of using fighters in conjunction with bombers.

Of course not.  Healthy debate is good.

[legion3]

Oh no  :-o  … no offense and hopefully I have caused none.

I agree completely, the more airplanes (escorts) the better the chances of getting some sort of hits but as I originally posted, they just aren’t the fear weapon in this game they should be.

Also since you are using dice statistics on bomber safety, what then would be the statistic of the single bomber actually hitting anything? The ships have such an advantage of being damaged.

My only issue is that airplanes are weak in this game and are not to be used alone unless the fleet or force you are facing is minimal. Which I stated in my original post. I am just defending my thesis and still don’t see the threat aircraft have in this game. As others have said combined assaults or your chances of success are extremely random at best.

Player 2 has such an advantage as to how battles will unfold by countering air movement.

[frimmel]

@legion3:

My only issue is that airplanes are weak in this game and are not to be used alone unless the fleet or force you are facing is minimal. Which I stated in my original post.

I can’t fault this thinking.

I am just defending my thesis and still don’t see the threat aircraft have in this game. As others have said combined assaults or your chances of success are extremely random at best.

Player 2 has such an advantage as to how battles will unfold by countering air movement.

Player 2’s advantage is I think why you have to keep your air forces concentrated unless of course you have a significant numerical advantage.

[Krieghund]

I’m working on some variant rules to address this issue.  Hopefully they’ll be ready for publication before too much longer.

[dinosaur]

Legion3,

I think I’ll take up that challenge, although it will take a little time.  First off, I doubt the numbers will look good for aircraft going after a fleet of any real size.  But I think small supply excursions can be more vulnerable than you may think.  Lets look at some smaller engagements.

One bomber going after one destroyer carrying no cargo …
0.3333 chance the bomber dies in AA round
0.3333 chance the bomber kills the DD if it survives to take the shot
0.2222 chance the bomber damages the DD if it survives to take the shot
(-$5) x 0.3333 + ($5) x 0.3333 x 0.6667 + ($2) x 0.2222 x 0.6667 = -$0.2593

One bomber going after one destroyer carrying $2 of cargo … +$0.4815

One bomber and one fighter going after one destroyer carrying no cargo …
0.3333 chance the fighter dies in AA round
0.4815 chance the airplanes kill the DD if they survive to take the shot
0.2222 chance the airplanes damage the DD if they survive to take the shot
0.3333 chance the bomber kills the DD if fighter is killed
0.2222 chance the bomber damages the DD if fighter is killed
(-$3) x 0.3333 + ($5) x 0.4815 x 0.6667 + ($2) x 0.2222 x 0.6667 + ($5) x 0.3333 x 0.3333 + ($2) x 0.2222 x 0.3333 = +$1.605

One bomber and one fighter going after one destroyer carrying $2 of cargo … +$2.914

Give me a little more time and I’ll take a look at adding a tranny before I add destroyers.  BTW, notice that a cruiser is no better than a destroyer in this battle so using a cruiser rather than a destroyer only increases the risk (in dollars) to the supply convoy.  Tell me you are not a bit surprised with these numbers.(?)

[legion3]

No doubt the smaller supply groups are more vulnerable than larger fleets, however, the risk might be worth the gamble.

In A&A, A&AR, A&AE and A&AP given the power of aircraft, and the lack of an “air attack phase” a single DD (or comperable unit) vs a BMB or BMB/FTR, the DD is likely doomed with a much greater statistical value.

In A&AG I would still not fear to send a small unit given the random nature of hits. In the 15 or so games my friends and I have played, I have never seen Airplanes (without ships) ever be more than a nusiance to plan around.

Fantastic statistics and the numbers are interesting but what did Han Solo say…

“never tell me the odds”.  :wink:

Actually keep up the good work.

[dinosaur]

Well here is another small installation:

One Bomber and two fighters going after a destroyer carrying no cargo …
0.3333 chance a fighter dies in AA round
0.6049 chance the airplanes kill the DD if they all survive th AA round
0.1975 chance the airplanes damage the DD if they all survive the AA round
0.4815 chance the airplanes kill the DD if the DD kills a fighter
0.2222 chance the airplanes damage the DD if the DD kills a fighter
(-$3) x 0.3333 + $5 x 0.6667 x 0.6049 + $2 x 0.6667 x 0.1975 + $5 x 0.3333 x 0.4815 + $2 x 0.3333 x 0.2222 = $2.230

One bomber and two fighters going after one destroyer carrying $2 cargo … $3.770

The situation becomes much more complex when you have more than one variety of ship in play.  I’ll give you the tranny one tomorrow.

[dinosaur]

Well, as promised, I have a set of scenarios including a transport …

One bomber going after a DD and one TRN carrying no cargo …
0.3333 chance the bomber dies in the AA round
0.0556 chance the bmr kills the DD and the TRN if it survives AA
0.2778 chance the bmr kills the DD if it survives AA
0.2222 chance the bmr damages the DD if it survives AA
(-$5) x 0.3333 + ($7) x 0.6667 x 0.0556 + ($5) x 0.6667 x 0.2778 + ($2) x 0.6667 x 0.2222 = -$0.185

One bomber vs. one DD and one TRN carrying $2 Cargo … -$0.111

One bomber vs. one DD and one TRN carrying $4 Cargo … -$0.037

One bomber vs. one DD carrying $2 Cargo and one TRN carrying $4 Cargo … $0.630

One bomber and one fighter going after a DD and one TRN carrying no cargo …
0.3333 chance the fighter dies in the AA round
0.0556 chance the bmr kills the DD and the TRN if ftr killed in AA
0.2778 chance the bmr kills the DD if ftr killed in AA
0.2222 chance the bmr damages the DD if ftr killed in AA
0.1481 chance the airplanes kill the DD and TRN if they all survive the AA
0.3333 chance the airplanes kill the DD if they all survive AA
0.2222 chance the airplanes damage the DD if they all survive AA
(-$3) x 0.3333 + ($7) x 0.3333 x 0.0556 + ($5) x 0.3333 x 0.2778 + ($2) x 0.3333 x 0.2222 + ($7) x 0.6667 x 0.1481 + ($5) x 0.6667 x 0.3333 + ($2) x 0.6667 x 0.2222 = $1.850

One bomber and one fighter vs. one DD and one TRN carrying $2 Cargo … $2.074

One bomber and one fighter vs. one DD and one TRN carrying $4 Cargo … $2.309

One bomber and one fighter vs. one DD carrying $2 Cargo and one TRN carrying $4 Cargo … $3.617

One bomber and two fighters going after a DD and one TRN carrying no cargo …
0.3333 chance a fighter dies in the AA round
0.1481 chance the airplanes kill the DD and the TRN if a ftr killed in AA
0.3333 chance the airplanes kill the DD if a ftr killed in AA
0.2222 chance the airplanes damage the DD if a ftr killed in AA
0.2593 chance the airplanes kill the DD and TRN if they all survive the AA
0.3457 chance the airplanes kill the DD if they all survive AA
0.1975 chance the airplanes damage the DD if they all survive AA
(-$3) x 0.3333 + ($7) x 0.3333 x 0.1481 + ($5) x 0.3333 x 0.3333 + ($2) x 0.3333 x 0.2222 + ($7) x 0.6667 x 0.2593 + ($5) x 0.6667 x 0.3457 + ($2) x 0.6667 x 0.1975 = $2.675

One bomber and two fighters vs. one DD and one TRN carrying $2 Cargo … $3.119

One bomber and two fighters vs. one DD and one TRN carrying $4 Cargo … $3.564

One bomber and two fighters vs. one DD carrying $2 Cargo and one TRN carrying $4 Cargo … $5.103

Since it is clear that one bomber alone is not good, one fighter and one bomber derive a positive benefit and adding fighters makes the score rise rapidly, there is no reason to explore other combinations of aircraft in this case.  The next set of statistics will be prepared for aircraft against two destroyers.  Then I will add transports to that case also.

[dinosaur]

Here are the first few combinations regarding two destroyers

One bomber going after two DD carying no cargo …
0.5556 chance bomber dies in the AA round
0.0278 chance bomber kills both DD if it survives AA
0.0556 chance bomber kills one DD and damages the second DD if it survives AA
0.0278 chance bomber damages both DD if it survives AA
0.2222 chance bomber kills only one DD if it survives AA
0.2222 chance bomber damages only one DD if it survives AA
(-$5) x 0.5556 + ($10) x 0.4444 x 0.0278 + ($7) x 0.4444 x 0.0556 + ($4) x 0.4444 x 0.0278 + ($5) x 0.4444 x 0.2222 + ($2) x 0.4444 x 0.2222 = -$1.74

One bomber going after one DD carying $2 Cargo and a second DD carrying no cargo … -$1.44

One bomber going after two DD each carrying $2 Cargo … -$1.15

One bomber and one fighter going after two DD carrying no cargo …
0.1111 chance both aircraft die in AA round
0.4444 chance the fighter dies in the AA round
0.0278 chance bomber kills both DD if ftr killed by AA
0.0556 chance bomber kills one DD and damages the second DD if ftr killed by AA
0.0278 chance bomber damages both DD if ftr killed by AA
0.2222 chance bomber kills only one DD if ftr killed by AA
0.2222 chance bomber damages only one DD if ftr killed by AA
0.0833 chance airplanes kill both DD if they both survive AA
0.1204 chance airplanes kill one DD and damage the other DD if they both survive AA
0.0556 chance airplanes damage both DD if they both survive AA
0.2222 chance airplanes kill only one DD if they both survive AA
0.2222 chance airplanes damage only one DD if they both survive AA
(-$8) x 0.1111 + (-$3) x 0.4444 + ($10) x 0.4444 x 0.0278 + ($7) x 0.4444 x 0.0556 + ($4) x 0.4444 x 0.0278 + ($5) x 0.4444 x 0.2222 + ($2) x 0.4444 x 0.2222 + ($10) x 0.4444 x 0.0833 + ($7) x 0.4444 x 0.1204 + ($4) x 0.4444 x 0.0556 + ($5) x 0.4444 x 0.2222 + ($2) x 0.4444 x 0.2222 = $0.35

One bomber and one fighter going after one DD carrying $2 Cargo and a second DD carrying no cargo … $1.07

One bomber and one fighter going after two DD each carrying $2 Cargo … $2.19

More to come, should anyone care.

[legion3]

I’m still looking… :wink:

[frimmel]

Not a lot to comment on there. Math isn’t really a debate.  :-)

How about, “Thanks for the info?”

[dinosaur]

Well, I’m just glad to hear I’m not talking to myself.  These things take a bit of time and I don’t want to wear myself out over nothing.

One Bomber and two fighters going after two DD carrying no cargo …
0.1111 chance both fighters die in the AA round
0.4444 chance one fighter dies in the AA round
0.0278 chance bomber kills both DD if fighters killed by AA
0.0556 chance bomber kills one DD and damages second DD if fighters killed by AA
0.0278 chance bomber damages both DD if fighters killed by AA
0.2222 chance bomber kills only one DD if fighters killed by AA
0.2222 chance bomber damages only one DD if fighters killed by AA
0.0833 chance airplanes kill both DD if one fighter killed by AA
0.1204 chance airplanes kill one DD and damage second DD if one fighter killed by AA
0.0556 chance airplanes damage both DD if one fighter killed by AA
0.2222 chance airplanes kill only one DD if one fighter killed by AA
0.2222 chance airplanes damage only one DD if one fighter killed by AA
0.1605 chance airplanes kill both DD if no planes killed by AA
0.1728 chance airplanes kill one DD and damage second DD if no planes killed by AA
0.0741 chance airplanes damage both DD if no planes killed by AA
0.1975 chance airplanes kill only one DD if no planes killed by AA
0.1975 chance airplanes damage only one DD if no planes killed by AA
(-$6) x 0.1111 + (-$3) x 0.4444 + ($10) x 0.1111 x 0.0278 + ($7) x 0.1111 x 0.0556 + ($4) x 0.1111 x 0.0278 + ($5) x 0.1111 x 0.2222 + ($2) x 0.1111 x 0.2222 + ($10) x 0.4444 x 0.0833 + ($7) x 0.4444 x 0.1204 + ($4) x 0.4444 x 0.0556 + ($5) x 0.4444 x 0.2222 + ($2) x 0.4444 x 0.2222 + ($10) x 0.4444 x 0.1605 + ($7) x 0.4444 x 0.1728 + ($4) x 0.4444 x 0.0.0741 + ($5) x 0.4444 x 0.1975 + ($2) x 0.4444 x 0.1975 = $1.79

One bomber and two fighters going after one DD carrying $2 Cargo and a second DD carrying no cargo … $2.83

One bomber and two fighters going after two DD each carrying $2 Cargo … $4.29

Things are starting to shape up as we approach a supply convoy with meaningful size.  I should compare this to the ‘value’ of attacking a sub with a few aircraft.

[dinosaur]

I have added a few more, but the calculation length is becoming too long for me to want to write it all out any longer.  I’m just going to give the ‘answers’.  However, I’d like also to summarize the earlier results:

One Fighter                vs. one SS … $1.33
One Bomber                vs. one SS … $2.22
One Bomber                vs. two SS … $2.67
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. one SS … $2.81
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. two SS … $3.85
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. one SS … $3.21
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. two SS … $4.84

One Bomber                vs. one DD with no cargo … -$0.26
One Bomber                vs. one DD with $2 Cargo … $0.48
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. one DD with no Cargo … $1.65
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. one DD with $2 Cargo … $2.91
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. one DD with no cargo … $2.23
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. one DD with $2 Cargo … $3.77

One Bomber                vs. one DD and one TRN with no cargo … -$0.185
One Bomber                vs. one DD and one TRN with $2 Cargo … -$0.111
One Bomber                vs. one DD and one TRN with $4 Cargo … -$0.037
One Bomber                vs. one DD with $2 Cargo and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $0.630
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. one DD and one TRN with no cargo … $1.84
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. one DD and one TRN with $2 Cargo … $2.07
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. one DD and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $2.31
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. one DD with $2 Cargo and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $3.62
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. one DD and one TRN with no cargo … $2.67
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. one DD and one TRN with $2 Cargo … $3.12
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. one DD and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $3.56
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. one DD with $2 Cargo and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $5.10

One Bomber and one Fighter vs. one DD and 2-TRN with no cargo … $1.87
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. one DD and 2-TRN, one with $2 Cargo … $1.99
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. one DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 Cargo … $2.11
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. one DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 and other with $2 Cargo … $2.26
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. one DD and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $2.47
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. one DD with $2 Cargo and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $3.76
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN with no cargo … $2.77
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN, one with $2 Cargo … $3.04
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 Cargo … $3.46
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 and other with $2 Cargo … $3.60
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $4.20
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. one DD with $2 Cargo and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $5.74
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN with no cargo … $3.48
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN, one with $2 Cargo … $4.01
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 Cargo … $4.54
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 and other with $2 Cargo … $5.07
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $5.60
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. one DD with $2 Cargo and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $7.20
Note these are the same as the case for 2 Bmrs & 1 Ftr
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN with no cargo … $4.19
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN, one with $2 Cargo … $4.93
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 Cargo … $5.66
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 and other with $2 Cargo … $6.40
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $7.14
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. one DD with $2 Cargo and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $8.84
Note these are the same as the case for 2 Bmrs & 2 Ftrs

One Bomber                vs. 2-DD with no cargo … -$1.74
One Bomber                vs. 2-DD, one with $2 Cargo … -$1.44
One Bomber                vs. 2-DD, each with $2 Cargo … -$1.15
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. 2-DD with no Cargo … $0.35
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. 2-DD, one with $2 Cargo … $1.07
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. 2-DD, each with $2 Cargo … $2.19
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD with no cargo … $1.79
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD, one with $2 Cargo … $2.83
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD, each with $2 Cargo … $4.29

One Bomber and one Fighter vs. 2-DD and one TRN with no cargo … $0.36
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. 2-DD and one TRN with $2 Cargo … $0.37
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. 2-DD and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $0.37
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. 2-DD, one with $2 Cargo and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $1.10
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. 2-DD, each with $2 Cargo and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $1.82
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD and one TRN with no cargo … $1.83
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD and one TRN with $2 Cargo … $1.87
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $1.91
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD, one with $2 Cargo and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $2.95
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD, each with $2 Cargo and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $3.99
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. 2-DD and one TRN with no cargo … $2.73
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. 2-DD and one TRN with $2 Cargo … $3.07
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. 2-DD and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $3.42
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. 2-DD, one with $2 Cargo and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $4.60
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. 2-DD, each with $2 Cargo and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $5.79
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. 2-DD and one TRN with no cargo … $3.58
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. 2-DD and one TRN with $2 Cargo … $4.25
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. 2-DD and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $4.92
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. 2-DD, one with $2 Cargo and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $6.22
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. 2-DD, each with $2 Cargo and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $7.48
Note these are the same as the case for 2 Bmrs & 2 Ftrs

One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN with no cargo … $1.83
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN, one with $2 Cargo … $1.86
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 Cargo … $1.88
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 and other with $2 Cargo … $1.90
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $1.92
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD, one with $2 Cargo and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $2.96
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD, each with $2 Cargo and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $4.00
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN with no cargo … $
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN, one with $2 Cargo … $
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 Cargo … $
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 and other with $2 Cargo … $
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. 2-DD, one with $2 Cargo and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. 2-DD, each with $2 Cargo and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN with no cargo … $
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN, one with $2 Cargo … $
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 Cargo … $
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 and other with $2 Cargo … $
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. 2-DD, one with $2 Cargo and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. 2-DD, each with $2 Cargo and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $
Note these are the same as the case for 2 Bmrs & 2 Ftrs

I plan to run this progression up still higher adding DD, TRN, and more bombers and fighters.  One thing I’m beginning to see is that CAP may play a bigger role than I thought before.  Aircraft used against main fleets always had to survive the AA round against the enemy CAP fighters in particular.  These engagements I analyzed have not included any participation with fighters escorting the ships.

One thing I see in the data is that it is very risky to use destroyers as transports if you think you may be attacked by aircraft and you don’t have adequate fighters to escort you.  Notice that the damage rises a bit when destroyers are hit carrying cargo.  Maybe a compromise might be to place infantry on destroyers and other cargo on the transports when you have to do this at all.

Another ‘rule of thumb’ I am beginning to develop is that it appears you should strive for at least one bomber per DD/CA and at least 75% of the opponents AA dice in fighters.  For example, if attacking a convoy of 2-CA, 2-DD, and four loaded TRNs, you should probably need at least 4 bombers and 3 fighters.  Yes, a perfect score with the opponents AA dice will risk a bomber, but the probability is not high.  (1/3)^4 = 1/81 ~ 1.25%  But you have a 56% chance with each bomber of scoring at least one hit.

Edit:  Added colored text …  And then some more …  And then some more …

[frimmel]

@dinosaur:

Bump … because editing previous post to add info doesn’t show up as new post with info.

You have already gone above and beyond with this.  8-)

[dinosaur]

Thanks Frimmel.  I’m not done yet, but because the permutations are becoming extensive, I am having to slow down.  It takes me five to six sheets of paper to run the numbers on a single example right now.  For example, my next installment will include the case where one bomber with four fighters goes up against one destroyer and two transports.  My first three pages just list the permutations of the six dice.  My fourth page accumulates the number of dice rolls qualify for a specific result.  My fifth sheet summarizes the numbers from the fourth sheet.  The sixth sheet determines the ‘worth’ of a specific result depending on the cargo loadout of the convoy.  These numbers go into a spreadsheet with about sixty lines, to add up the final score.  One of the beauties is that often I can check the results by comparing to other values already computed.

About the results …

As I said before it seems a good rule of thumb is to have one bomber for each target you hope to hit, plus 3/4 the fighters equal to the number of AA dice the enemy is going to throw.  This does provide a small chance you might lose a bomber, but very small (~1.25%).  On the plus side, you can expect to hit more than 0.60 x # bombers you bring to the fight.  If you don’t bring at least twice as many bombers as screening ships, you can only expect to hit screening ships with an occasional hit on a transport.  (Please understand, after the 3/4 fighter screen, every extra 2 fighters count for 1 bomber on the target)

The original observation that planes are not very reliable against main fleets appears to be completely justifiable.  A typical main fleet is going to have at least five ships with one AA die each, and a fighter screen of at least two fighters.  This means nine or more AA dice.  Just to get started against a fleet with transports and an escort like this, you would need seven fighters and five bombers.  But a fleet with only 5-AA dice and two fighter CAP is a modest fleet indeed in game terms.  But an air only attack of this size would certainly be classified as a main effort.

So it appears unless you need to make a big gamble, aircraft should best be used to attack small supply convoys, deter air attacks against your airfields, fly CAP over your fleet or join a main effort fleet engagement against the enemy.  Going after a main body with only aircraft appears to be a big gamble at best.

I may run some odds that include one or two fighters in CAP over these small fleets later.

[Guest]

The problem that I have with all of this calculation is that is has no correlation with what actually occurred.  The Japanese very rarely would have ships anywhere in the vicinity of Guadalcanal during daylight once Henderson Field was in operation, for fear of air attack.  The US was able to operate during daylight without major problems because of fighter cover from Henderson Field, but even then we lost ships due to air attack while delivering men and supplies to Guadalcanal.  During the attacks on Tanaka’s reinforcement convoy from November 13 to 15th, the Japanese lost 6 transports sunk and 1 heavily damaged to airstrikes from both Guadalcanal and the Enterprise, with minimal losses, even with the presence of some escorting Zeros, and a number of escorting destroyers.  In February, 1943, 3 Fletcher-class destroyers were attacked by 5 Vals, which scored 3 hits on one ship, including one in a magazine that sunk the DD in 2 minutes.  I will need to set up a couple of historical scenarios and see how the game results compare to what actually happened, but my guess is that I will be changing the rules for air attack, antiair fire, and damage to ships.

I posted the following thread on the Harris Game website, of a study that I did for a couple of game companies on air attack and antiair effectiveness in WW2 in the Pacific.  One striking thing was the ineffectiveness of Japanese naval antiaircraft fire. As stated, it was “somewhere between horrible and nonexistent for most of the war”.  That would most definitely apply to the Solomons campaign.  Also, making destroyers as hard to sink as a battleship, i.e. two hits, is really stretching it, even allowing for the fact that a destroyer represents more than one ship.

http://www.harrisgamedesign.com/bb2/viewtopic.php?t=1475

My ideas for a couple of quick and dirty home rules to make planes a bit more deadly would be:  1) no wraparound for Japanese AA fire from ships.  2) Destroyers on both sides are sunk with one hit.  If nothing else, this should make the Japanese player a bit more leery of running small number of ships to Guadalcanal.

[legion3]

So it appears unless you need to make a big gamble, aircraft should best be used to attack small supply convoys, deter air attacks against your airfields, fly CAP over your fleet or join a main effort fleet engagement against the enemy.  Going after a main body with only aircraft appears to be a big gamble at best.

Which is the point I made at the outset…now backed by math and science. Booyah!!!  :wink:

A game cannot be too historically accurate or it would not be fun to play. Weaken the IJN’s defenses and the game would be unbalanced. World War 1 Games which are to accurate often become grinding slugfests and quickly become boring and plodding to play.

[Krieghund]

A while back I mentioned that I’ve been working on some fairly simple house rules to make air attacks a little more effective.  I wanted to wait until I had them thoroughly playtested before posting them, but my time is very limited right now.  So, rather than wait a while longer for more testing, I’m going to throw them out here now, and see what you guys think.  I have two different ideas - one very simple and one a little more complex.

Method 1:

The current Attack Air Units step is divided into two steps: Air-to-Air Combat and Anti-Aircraft Fire:

Air-to-Air Combat - This step works in the same way as the Attack Air Units step in the Operations Manual, except that only air units may fire.

Anti-Aircraft Fire - This step works in the same way as the Attack Air Units step in the Operations Manual, with two exceptions.  First, only AA guns and sea units may fire.  Second, casualties are resolved in the normal fashion, but they are not removed immediately.  Each air unit that is hit is turned upside down on the board to mark it as a casualty.  These units will remain on the board and attack in the Attack Sea Units or Attack Land Units and/or Airfields steps, after which they will be removed along with those casualties.

Method 2:

The Combat Sequence in the Operations Manual is replaced with the following:
1. Air-to-Air Combat
2. Air-to-Surface Combat
3. Naval Combat
4. Transport and Destroyer Unloading
5. Land Combat and Naval Bombardment

For each of the steps, combat functions in the same way as it does under the official rules, with a few notable exceptions outlined below.

1. Air-to-Air Combat - This step works in the same way as the Attack Air Units step in the Operations Manual, except that only air units may fire.

2. Air-to-Surface Combat - The first player attacks the opposing air units in the zone of his or her choice using only his or her land or sea units in that zone and/or attacks the opposing land or sea units in the zone of his or her choice using only his or her air units in that zone.  Then the other player does the same in that zone.  In island zones, air units may choose to attack either land units or airfields.  Casualties are resolved in the normal fashion, with one exception: if an air unit hits a land or sea unit type that isn’t in the battle, the casualty is chosen by reading across the chart starting at the next column, rather than from the first column.  If the columns are exhausted, wrap back around to the beginning.

After both players have rolled their attacks, then remove the destroyed units from the board.  If single hits are scored on airfields, turn them sideways to record their semi-damaged state.  Two hits must be applied to one airfield before applying any to a second airfield.  Repeat this process for each zone in which both air units of one side and land or sea units of the other side exist.

3. Naval Combat - This step works in the same way as the Attack Sea Units step in the Operations Manual, except that only sea units and artillery attacking sea units may fire.

4. Transport and Destroyer Unloading - This step works in exactly the same way as the Unload Transports and Destroyers step in the Operations Manual.

5. Land Combat and Naval Bombardment - This step works in the same way as the Attack Land Units and/or Airfields step in the Operations Manual, except that air units may not fire.  Any airfield that was turned sideways in the Air-to-Surface Combat step can be damaged by a single hit from a sea unit.  Any such airfields not damaged in this step are returned to their normal orientation.

Method 1 simply allows air units to attack surface units even if they are hit by AA fire, giving them a little more punch.  It also make bombers slightly harder to hit when escorted by fighters.

Method 2 restructures the combat system to give air units even more power by giving them the ability to potentially strike more directly at units deeper in the casualty chart, in addition to the advantages given in Method 1.  It also makes air attacks more deadly in fleet battles, since the hit ships won’t be able to fire in the Naval Combat step.

Both methods make air units a bit more of a threat to land and sea units.  Any feedback would be appreciated.

[dinosaur]

One concern for me is that your second method doesn’t allow destroyers and cruisers to protect the higher value ships.  For example, in my calculations that only deal with destroyers and supply ships, in the game destroyers absorb all but the direct shot against the supply ship.  Except for the direct shot, only one in six, you have to eliminate the destroyers to hit the supply ships.  This isn’t ideal, but it does allow destroyers to fulfill their primary duty as fleet/convoy escorts.  I do agree that having a destroyer take two damage points to kill, the same as a cruiser, is a bit of an oversite.  I could go with destroyers getting killed on a 1 or 2.  This helps cruisers gain their proper place too.  A destroyer gets only one hit, a cruiser might get two, and a battleship might get three hits to destroy.  A destroyer always gets one, a cruiser might get only one, and a battleship always gets two.  Sounds like a good balance.  Maybe we could let supply ships get killed on a 1, 2 or 3.  But you still have to peel away the escort ships.

Your idea about ship AA fire makes me think of kamikaze attacks.

[Krieghund]

@dinosaur:

One concern for me is that your second method doesn’t allow destroyers and cruisers to protect the higher value ships.  For example, in my calculations that only deal with destroyers and supply ships, in the game destroyers absorb all but the direct shot against the supply ship.  Except for the direct shot, only one in six, you have to eliminate the destroyers to hit the supply ships.  This isn’t ideal, but it does allow destroyers to fulfill their primary duty as fleet/convoy escorts.

It only keeps destroyers and cruisers from protecting other ships against air attack.  Naval attacks still use the official system.  This makes air attacks more devastating, and makes defensive air cover more important.  Of course, if this makes air units too powerful, it can easily be removed.

@dinosaur:

Your idea about ship AA fire makes me think of kamikaze attacks.

That’s not what it’s intended to represent.  It simply makes fire between air and sea/ground units simultaneous, just as fire between units of the same “class” is.  Think of it as a torpedo bomber being hit by AA fire just after it releases its torpedo.