No fear of airplanes

[legion3]

See this thread on wrap around hits

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=11029.0

[frimmel]

@legion3:

You are not counting hits properly.

All the defender has to do is score 2 hits with his first two dice or any combination of hits and both planes the fighter and bomber are gone. All hits are a hit… the hit still counts, but will hit a different unit type of that catagory.  A hit on a bomber does not occur only if the 5 or 6 die is a hit.

The hits keep on coming in this game.

All hits hit something and you do not have to roll 5 or more dice to hit a bomber.

To use your example a Bomber and a fighter attack two destroyers, all the DD’s have to roll is two dice, if those two dice are both ones or two’s both planes are shot down…not just the fighter. the hit on the second fighter wraps around until you find a unit that can take the hit…the bomber.

See page 18 Topic Hitting Units you Enemy doesn’t have.

You are correct and dinosaur is wrong about neccessarily needing five dice (counting hits somewhat incorrectly in his example) but right that more fighters will protect bombers.

More fighters increase the number of dice you need to hit a bomber. Your destroyers with their two dice will have less chance of hitting the bomber if there are more fighters right? 2 fighters and the bomber against the two dice from the destroyers would be unable to get thru the fighter screen correct?

Even against just the fighter and bomber you need both dice to hit. Only one hit can only get a fighter. Until my opponent has more than four dice I can protect bombers by matching Air Attack dice with fighters. The more fighters the more protection from wraparound hits for the bombers.

[Krieghund]

@frimmel:

@legion3:

You are not counting hits properly.

All the defender has to do is score 2 hits with his first two dice or any combination of hits and both planes the fighter and bomber are gone. All hits are a hit… the hit still counts, but will hit a different unit type of that catagory.  A hit on a bomber does not occur only if the 5 or 6 die is a hit.

The hits keep on coming in this game.

All hits hit something and you do not have to roll 5 or more dice to hit a bomber.

To use your example a Bomber and a fighter attack two destroyers, all the DD’s have to roll is two dice, if those two dice are both ones or two’s both planes are shot down…not just the fighter. the hit on the second fighter wraps around until you find a unit that can take the hit…the bomber.

See page 18 Topic Hitting Units you Enemy doesn’t have.

You are correct and dinosaur is wrong about neccessarily needing five dice (counting hits somewhat incorrectly in his example) but right that more fighters will protect bombers.

I’m not sure Dinosaur is really wrong.  I think he just may not have stated the situation clearly:

@dinosaur:

Well, I consider fighters as bomber escorts for the following reason: With fighters the chances to lose a bomber is reduced by two-thirds.  The battle box has four slots for fighters and then two for bombers.  Yes, a direct hit on a bomber does kill it and the fighters didn’t change that, but, consider that with only one fighter and one bomber, the attacker has to roll a hit on his fifth or sixth die to score that hit.  Heck he even has to roll at least five dice to get that chance.  If he rolls four or less, he can’t hit an escorted bomber without killing the fighter first.

I think he meant that the attacker has to roll at least five dice in order to have a chance to hit a bomber directly.  Otherwise, he can’t hit a bomber without hitting all of the escorting fighters first.  This is true.  Of course, I may be misinterpreting his statement.

@frimmel:

More fighters increase the number of dice you need to hit a bomber. Your destroyers with their two dice will have less chance of hitting the bomber if there are more fighters right? 2 fighters and the bomber against the two dice from the destroyers would be unable to get thru the fighter screen correct?

Correct.

@frimmel:

Even against just the fighter and bomber you need both dice to hit. Only one hit can only get a fighter. Until my opponent has more than four dice I can protect bombers by matching Air Attack dice with fighters. The more fighters the more protection from wraparound hits for the bombers.

Right again!

[legion3]

@dinosaur:

Yes, a direct hit on a bomber does kill it and the fighters didn’t change that, but, consider that with only one fighter and one bomber, the attacker has to roll a hit on his fifth or sixth die to score that hit.  Heck he even has to roll at least five dice to get that chance.  If he rolls four or less, he can’t hit an escorted bomber without killing the fighter first.   The odds are much improved for bombers when fighters are sent as escorts.  Just don’t send them at a fleet alone.

With only 1 FtF and 1 Bmb he does not have to roll a hit on his fifth or sixth die to score a hit. It seems to me he feels the 5 and 6 slot on the battlebox is the only way to hit a bomber and it clearly is not.

I understand that as you add fighters the enemy force would need to add dice in order to hit the bombers but really how often is your enemy only going to have 4 dice?

And again to stress the weakness of aircraft you could have all your fighters destroyed, get your bombers through, make your attacks and still hit nothing or just damage a few things. C’est la guerre.

Air attacks without sea power in support seems to have big risk, little gain.

[dinosaur]

Krieghund, thanks for coming to my defense.  I must apologize for not being more careful.  However, I am very often accused of being tiresome when I spell out every single thought necessary to make my point.  Although, it appears in my haste to edit my own post, I made a mistake.  I fear that if I make the whole of my case I will be considered tiresome.  So, in brief let me say …

Yes my main point is that with fighters, bombers enjoy a special one-third protection in general.  With small numbers of aircraft, which would most likely be used against only small numbers of AA dice, the benefit is often even better.  In my example with one fighter and one bomber, against one die, the bomber is of course immune to AA.  Against two AA dice, the bomber is only at risk 11.1% of the time.  Against three AA dice, the bomber is only at risk 7/27 of the time, still less than one-third.  Against four dice the odds put the bomber at risk 33/81 of the time, which is now slightly more than one-third.  Against five dice, the odds for the bomber drop quickly because now the bomber has a direct chance of getting stung by the fifth die.  And six dice is only worse.  But regardless of the number of dice, the chances of a bomber getting whacked drops substantially, even if you add only one fighter.  More fighters only makes things better.

My point is that fighters clearly improve the effectiveness of bombers to deliver damage on the enemy.  In general, the battle box indicates this to be a drop to about one-third the chances of getting eaten by AA, but specific numbers of attack dice and fighter escorts will have some effect on the real odds in a particular battle.

I recognize the names of the folks in this thread as notable contributors to the forum.  I hope I have not given offense while defending my thesis on the merits of using fighters in conjunction with bombers.

edit:  After reading the questioned post, I feel I was clearer than I was credited.  I did state, and was later highlighted in italics, that you need to kill the fighter first when rolling less than five dice.  This is exactly what others went on to illustrate in their challenges, that two hits would kill the bomber, which is what I said in my own words.

[frimmel]

I certainly don’t need convinced on the merits of escorts.  :-)

[Krieghund]

@dinosaur:

Krieghund, thanks for coming to my defense.

My pleasure.

@dinosaur:

I hope I have not given offense while defending my thesis on the merits of using fighters in conjunction with bombers.

Of course not.  Healthy debate is good.

[legion3]

Oh no  :-o  … no offense and hopefully I have caused none.

I agree completely, the more airplanes (escorts) the better the chances of getting some sort of hits but as I originally posted, they just aren’t the fear weapon in this game they should be.

Also since you are using dice statistics on bomber safety, what then would be the statistic of the single bomber actually hitting anything? The ships have such an advantage of being damaged.

My only issue is that airplanes are weak in this game and are not to be used alone unless the fleet or force you are facing is minimal. Which I stated in my original post. I am just defending my thesis and still don’t see the threat aircraft have in this game. As others have said combined assaults or your chances of success are extremely random at best.

Player 2 has such an advantage as to how battles will unfold by countering air movement.

[frimmel]

@legion3:

My only issue is that airplanes are weak in this game and are not to be used alone unless the fleet or force you are facing is minimal. Which I stated in my original post.

I can’t fault this thinking.

I am just defending my thesis and still don’t see the threat aircraft have in this game. As others have said combined assaults or your chances of success are extremely random at best.

Player 2 has such an advantage as to how battles will unfold by countering air movement.

Player 2’s advantage is I think why you have to keep your air forces concentrated unless of course you have a significant numerical advantage.

[Krieghund]

I’m working on some variant rules to address this issue.  Hopefully they’ll be ready for publication before too much longer.

[dinosaur]

Legion3,

I think I’ll take up that challenge, although it will take a little time.  First off, I doubt the numbers will look good for aircraft going after a fleet of any real size.  But I think small supply excursions can be more vulnerable than you may think.  Lets look at some smaller engagements.

One bomber going after one destroyer carrying no cargo …
0.3333 chance the bomber dies in AA round
0.3333 chance the bomber kills the DD if it survives to take the shot
0.2222 chance the bomber damages the DD if it survives to take the shot
(-$5) x 0.3333 + ($5) x 0.3333 x 0.6667 + ($2) x 0.2222 x 0.6667 = -$0.2593

One bomber going after one destroyer carrying $2 of cargo … +$0.4815

One bomber and one fighter going after one destroyer carrying no cargo …
0.3333 chance the fighter dies in AA round
0.4815 chance the airplanes kill the DD if they survive to take the shot
0.2222 chance the airplanes damage the DD if they survive to take the shot
0.3333 chance the bomber kills the DD if fighter is killed
0.2222 chance the bomber damages the DD if fighter is killed
(-$3) x 0.3333 + ($5) x 0.4815 x 0.6667 + ($2) x 0.2222 x 0.6667 + ($5) x 0.3333 x 0.3333 + ($2) x 0.2222 x 0.3333 = +$1.605

One bomber and one fighter going after one destroyer carrying $2 of cargo … +$2.914

Give me a little more time and I’ll take a look at adding a tranny before I add destroyers.  BTW, notice that a cruiser is no better than a destroyer in this battle so using a cruiser rather than a destroyer only increases the risk (in dollars) to the supply convoy.  Tell me you are not a bit surprised with these numbers.(?)

[legion3]

No doubt the smaller supply groups are more vulnerable than larger fleets, however, the risk might be worth the gamble.

In A&A, A&AR, A&AE and A&AP given the power of aircraft, and the lack of an “air attack phase” a single DD (or comperable unit) vs a BMB or BMB/FTR, the DD is likely doomed with a much greater statistical value.

In A&AG I would still not fear to send a small unit given the random nature of hits. In the 15 or so games my friends and I have played, I have never seen Airplanes (without ships) ever be more than a nusiance to plan around.

Fantastic statistics and the numbers are interesting but what did Han Solo say…

“never tell me the odds”.  :wink:

Actually keep up the good work.

[dinosaur]

Well here is another small installation:

One Bomber and two fighters going after a destroyer carrying no cargo …
0.3333 chance a fighter dies in AA round
0.6049 chance the airplanes kill the DD if they all survive th AA round
0.1975 chance the airplanes damage the DD if they all survive the AA round
0.4815 chance the airplanes kill the DD if the DD kills a fighter
0.2222 chance the airplanes damage the DD if the DD kills a fighter
(-$3) x 0.3333 + $5 x 0.6667 x 0.6049 + $2 x 0.6667 x 0.1975 + $5 x 0.3333 x 0.4815 + $2 x 0.3333 x 0.2222 = $2.230

One bomber and two fighters going after one destroyer carrying $2 cargo … $3.770

The situation becomes much more complex when you have more than one variety of ship in play.  I’ll give you the tranny one tomorrow.

[dinosaur]

Well, as promised, I have a set of scenarios including a transport …

One bomber going after a DD and one TRN carrying no cargo …
0.3333 chance the bomber dies in the AA round
0.0556 chance the bmr kills the DD and the TRN if it survives AA
0.2778 chance the bmr kills the DD if it survives AA
0.2222 chance the bmr damages the DD if it survives AA
(-$5) x 0.3333 + ($7) x 0.6667 x 0.0556 + ($5) x 0.6667 x 0.2778 + ($2) x 0.6667 x 0.2222 = -$0.185

One bomber vs. one DD and one TRN carrying $2 Cargo … -$0.111

One bomber vs. one DD and one TRN carrying $4 Cargo … -$0.037

One bomber vs. one DD carrying $2 Cargo and one TRN carrying $4 Cargo … $0.630

One bomber and one fighter going after a DD and one TRN carrying no cargo …
0.3333 chance the fighter dies in the AA round
0.0556 chance the bmr kills the DD and the TRN if ftr killed in AA
0.2778 chance the bmr kills the DD if ftr killed in AA
0.2222 chance the bmr damages the DD if ftr killed in AA
0.1481 chance the airplanes kill the DD and TRN if they all survive the AA
0.3333 chance the airplanes kill the DD if they all survive AA
0.2222 chance the airplanes damage the DD if they all survive AA
(-$3) x 0.3333 + ($7) x 0.3333 x 0.0556 + ($5) x 0.3333 x 0.2778 + ($2) x 0.3333 x 0.2222 + ($7) x 0.6667 x 0.1481 + ($5) x 0.6667 x 0.3333 + ($2) x 0.6667 x 0.2222 = $1.850

One bomber and one fighter vs. one DD and one TRN carrying $2 Cargo … $2.074

One bomber and one fighter vs. one DD and one TRN carrying $4 Cargo … $2.309

One bomber and one fighter vs. one DD carrying $2 Cargo and one TRN carrying $4 Cargo … $3.617

One bomber and two fighters going after a DD and one TRN carrying no cargo …
0.3333 chance a fighter dies in the AA round
0.1481 chance the airplanes kill the DD and the TRN if a ftr killed in AA
0.3333 chance the airplanes kill the DD if a ftr killed in AA
0.2222 chance the airplanes damage the DD if a ftr killed in AA
0.2593 chance the airplanes kill the DD and TRN if they all survive the AA
0.3457 chance the airplanes kill the DD if they all survive AA
0.1975 chance the airplanes damage the DD if they all survive AA
(-$3) x 0.3333 + ($7) x 0.3333 x 0.1481 + ($5) x 0.3333 x 0.3333 + ($2) x 0.3333 x 0.2222 + ($7) x 0.6667 x 0.2593 + ($5) x 0.6667 x 0.3457 + ($2) x 0.6667 x 0.1975 = $2.675

One bomber and two fighters vs. one DD and one TRN carrying $2 Cargo … $3.119

One bomber and two fighters vs. one DD and one TRN carrying $4 Cargo … $3.564

One bomber and two fighters vs. one DD carrying $2 Cargo and one TRN carrying $4 Cargo … $5.103

Since it is clear that one bomber alone is not good, one fighter and one bomber derive a positive benefit and adding fighters makes the score rise rapidly, there is no reason to explore other combinations of aircraft in this case.  The next set of statistics will be prepared for aircraft against two destroyers.  Then I will add transports to that case also.

[dinosaur]

Here are the first few combinations regarding two destroyers

One bomber going after two DD carying no cargo …
0.5556 chance bomber dies in the AA round
0.0278 chance bomber kills both DD if it survives AA
0.0556 chance bomber kills one DD and damages the second DD if it survives AA
0.0278 chance bomber damages both DD if it survives AA
0.2222 chance bomber kills only one DD if it survives AA
0.2222 chance bomber damages only one DD if it survives AA
(-$5) x 0.5556 + ($10) x 0.4444 x 0.0278 + ($7) x 0.4444 x 0.0556 + ($4) x 0.4444 x 0.0278 + ($5) x 0.4444 x 0.2222 + ($2) x 0.4444 x 0.2222 = -$1.74

One bomber going after one DD carying $2 Cargo and a second DD carrying no cargo … -$1.44

One bomber going after two DD each carrying $2 Cargo … -$1.15

One bomber and one fighter going after two DD carrying no cargo …
0.1111 chance both aircraft die in AA round
0.4444 chance the fighter dies in the AA round
0.0278 chance bomber kills both DD if ftr killed by AA
0.0556 chance bomber kills one DD and damages the second DD if ftr killed by AA
0.0278 chance bomber damages both DD if ftr killed by AA
0.2222 chance bomber kills only one DD if ftr killed by AA
0.2222 chance bomber damages only one DD if ftr killed by AA
0.0833 chance airplanes kill both DD if they both survive AA
0.1204 chance airplanes kill one DD and damage the other DD if they both survive AA
0.0556 chance airplanes damage both DD if they both survive AA
0.2222 chance airplanes kill only one DD if they both survive AA
0.2222 chance airplanes damage only one DD if they both survive AA
(-$8) x 0.1111 + (-$3) x 0.4444 + ($10) x 0.4444 x 0.0278 + ($7) x 0.4444 x 0.0556 + ($4) x 0.4444 x 0.0278 + ($5) x 0.4444 x 0.2222 + ($2) x 0.4444 x 0.2222 + ($10) x 0.4444 x 0.0833 + ($7) x 0.4444 x 0.1204 + ($4) x 0.4444 x 0.0556 + ($5) x 0.4444 x 0.2222 + ($2) x 0.4444 x 0.2222 = $0.35

One bomber and one fighter going after one DD carrying $2 Cargo and a second DD carrying no cargo … $1.07

One bomber and one fighter going after two DD each carrying $2 Cargo … $2.19

More to come, should anyone care.

[legion3]

I’m still looking… :wink:

[frimmel]

Not a lot to comment on there. Math isn’t really a debate.  :-)

How about, “Thanks for the info?”

[dinosaur]

Well, I’m just glad to hear I’m not talking to myself.  These things take a bit of time and I don’t want to wear myself out over nothing.

One Bomber and two fighters going after two DD carrying no cargo …
0.1111 chance both fighters die in the AA round
0.4444 chance one fighter dies in the AA round
0.0278 chance bomber kills both DD if fighters killed by AA
0.0556 chance bomber kills one DD and damages second DD if fighters killed by AA
0.0278 chance bomber damages both DD if fighters killed by AA
0.2222 chance bomber kills only one DD if fighters killed by AA
0.2222 chance bomber damages only one DD if fighters killed by AA
0.0833 chance airplanes kill both DD if one fighter killed by AA
0.1204 chance airplanes kill one DD and damage second DD if one fighter killed by AA
0.0556 chance airplanes damage both DD if one fighter killed by AA
0.2222 chance airplanes kill only one DD if one fighter killed by AA
0.2222 chance airplanes damage only one DD if one fighter killed by AA
0.1605 chance airplanes kill both DD if no planes killed by AA
0.1728 chance airplanes kill one DD and damage second DD if no planes killed by AA
0.0741 chance airplanes damage both DD if no planes killed by AA
0.1975 chance airplanes kill only one DD if no planes killed by AA
0.1975 chance airplanes damage only one DD if no planes killed by AA
(-$6) x 0.1111 + (-$3) x 0.4444 + ($10) x 0.1111 x 0.0278 + ($7) x 0.1111 x 0.0556 + ($4) x 0.1111 x 0.0278 + ($5) x 0.1111 x 0.2222 + ($2) x 0.1111 x 0.2222 + ($10) x 0.4444 x 0.0833 + ($7) x 0.4444 x 0.1204 + ($4) x 0.4444 x 0.0556 + ($5) x 0.4444 x 0.2222 + ($2) x 0.4444 x 0.2222 + ($10) x 0.4444 x 0.1605 + ($7) x 0.4444 x 0.1728 + ($4) x 0.4444 x 0.0.0741 + ($5) x 0.4444 x 0.1975 + ($2) x 0.4444 x 0.1975 = $1.79

One bomber and two fighters going after one DD carrying $2 Cargo and a second DD carrying no cargo … $2.83

One bomber and two fighters going after two DD each carrying $2 Cargo … $4.29

Things are starting to shape up as we approach a supply convoy with meaningful size.  I should compare this to the ‘value’ of attacking a sub with a few aircraft.

[dinosaur]

I have added a few more, but the calculation length is becoming too long for me to want to write it all out any longer.  I’m just going to give the ‘answers’.  However, I’d like also to summarize the earlier results:

One Fighter                vs. one SS … $1.33
One Bomber                vs. one SS … $2.22
One Bomber                vs. two SS … $2.67
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. one SS … $2.81
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. two SS … $3.85
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. one SS … $3.21
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. two SS … $4.84

One Bomber                vs. one DD with no cargo … -$0.26
One Bomber                vs. one DD with $2 Cargo … $0.48
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. one DD with no Cargo … $1.65
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. one DD with $2 Cargo … $2.91
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. one DD with no cargo … $2.23
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. one DD with $2 Cargo … $3.77

One Bomber                vs. one DD and one TRN with no cargo … -$0.185
One Bomber                vs. one DD and one TRN with $2 Cargo … -$0.111
One Bomber                vs. one DD and one TRN with $4 Cargo … -$0.037
One Bomber                vs. one DD with $2 Cargo and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $0.630
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. one DD and one TRN with no cargo … $1.84
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. one DD and one TRN with $2 Cargo … $2.07
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. one DD and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $2.31
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. one DD with $2 Cargo and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $3.62
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. one DD and one TRN with no cargo … $2.67
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. one DD and one TRN with $2 Cargo … $3.12
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. one DD and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $3.56
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. one DD with $2 Cargo and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $5.10

One Bomber and one Fighter vs. one DD and 2-TRN with no cargo … $1.87
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. one DD and 2-TRN, one with $2 Cargo … $1.99
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. one DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 Cargo … $2.11
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. one DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 and other with $2 Cargo … $2.26
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. one DD and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $2.47
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. one DD with $2 Cargo and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $3.76
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN with no cargo … $2.77
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN, one with $2 Cargo … $3.04
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 Cargo … $3.46
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 and other with $2 Cargo … $3.60
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $4.20
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. one DD with $2 Cargo and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $5.74
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN with no cargo … $3.48
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN, one with $2 Cargo … $4.01
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 Cargo … $4.54
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 and other with $2 Cargo … $5.07
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $5.60
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. one DD with $2 Cargo and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $7.20
Note these are the same as the case for 2 Bmrs & 1 Ftr
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN with no cargo … $4.19
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN, one with $2 Cargo … $4.93
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 Cargo … $5.66
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 and other with $2 Cargo … $6.40
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. one DD and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $7.14
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. one DD with $2 Cargo and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $8.84
Note these are the same as the case for 2 Bmrs & 2 Ftrs

One Bomber                vs. 2-DD with no cargo … -$1.74
One Bomber                vs. 2-DD, one with $2 Cargo … -$1.44
One Bomber                vs. 2-DD, each with $2 Cargo … -$1.15
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. 2-DD with no Cargo … $0.35
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. 2-DD, one with $2 Cargo … $1.07
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. 2-DD, each with $2 Cargo … $2.19
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD with no cargo … $1.79
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD, one with $2 Cargo … $2.83
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD, each with $2 Cargo … $4.29

One Bomber and one Fighter vs. 2-DD and one TRN with no cargo … $0.36
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. 2-DD and one TRN with $2 Cargo … $0.37
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. 2-DD and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $0.37
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. 2-DD, one with $2 Cargo and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $1.10
One Bomber and one Fighter vs. 2-DD, each with $2 Cargo and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $1.82
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD and one TRN with no cargo … $1.83
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD and one TRN with $2 Cargo … $1.87
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $1.91
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD, one with $2 Cargo and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $2.95
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD, each with $2 Cargo and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $3.99
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. 2-DD and one TRN with no cargo … $2.73
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. 2-DD and one TRN with $2 Cargo … $3.07
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. 2-DD and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $3.42
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. 2-DD, one with $2 Cargo and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $4.60
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. 2-DD, each with $2 Cargo and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $5.79
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. 2-DD and one TRN with no cargo … $3.58
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. 2-DD and one TRN with $2 Cargo … $4.25
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. 2-DD and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $4.92
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. 2-DD, one with $2 Cargo and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $6.22
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. 2-DD, each with $2 Cargo and one TRN with $4 Cargo … $7.48
Note these are the same as the case for 2 Bmrs & 2 Ftrs

One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN with no cargo … $1.83
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN, one with $2 Cargo … $1.86
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 Cargo … $1.88
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 and other with $2 Cargo … $1.90
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $1.92
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD, one with $2 Cargo and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $2.96
One Bomber and 2-Fighters vs. 2-DD, each with $2 Cargo and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $4.00
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN with no cargo … $
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN, one with $2 Cargo … $
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 Cargo … $
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 and other with $2 Cargo … $
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. 2-DD, one with $2 Cargo and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $
One Bomber and 3-Fighters vs. 2-DD, each with $2 Cargo and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN with no cargo … $
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN, one with $2 Cargo … $
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 Cargo … $
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN, one with $4 and other with $2 Cargo … $
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. 2-DD and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. 2-DD, one with $2 Cargo and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $
One Bomber and 4-Fighters vs. 2-DD, each with $2 Cargo and 2-TRN, each with $4 Cargo … $
Note these are the same as the case for 2 Bmrs & 2 Ftrs

I plan to run this progression up still higher adding DD, TRN, and more bombers and fighters.  One thing I’m beginning to see is that CAP may play a bigger role than I thought before.  Aircraft used against main fleets always had to survive the AA round against the enemy CAP fighters in particular.  These engagements I analyzed have not included any participation with fighters escorting the ships.

One thing I see in the data is that it is very risky to use destroyers as transports if you think you may be attacked by aircraft and you don’t have adequate fighters to escort you.  Notice that the damage rises a bit when destroyers are hit carrying cargo.  Maybe a compromise might be to place infantry on destroyers and other cargo on the transports when you have to do this at all.

Another ‘rule of thumb’ I am beginning to develop is that it appears you should strive for at least one bomber per DD/CA and at least 75% of the opponents AA dice in fighters.  For example, if attacking a convoy of 2-CA, 2-DD, and four loaded TRNs, you should probably need at least 4 bombers and 3 fighters.  Yes, a perfect score with the opponents AA dice will risk a bomber, but the probability is not high.  (1/3)^4 = 1/81 ~ 1.25%  But you have a 56% chance with each bomber of scoring at least one hit.

Edit:  Added colored text …  And then some more …  And then some more …

[frimmel]

@dinosaur:

Bump … because editing previous post to add info doesn’t show up as new post with info.

You have already gone above and beyond with this.  8-)