No fear of airplanes

[frimmel]

I think our Rodent Of Unusual Size :-) left a few parts out of his analysis. Fighters get shot down and don’t come back while a Destroyer can be repaired but FTRs have better AA and a land attack. Then add in the better range for FTRs but that Destroyers can move ground untis and supplies and it is a bit of a wash isn’t it?

Similarly with Bombers and Cruisers, Bombers getting the better range and an additional land attack dice but sacrificing the ability to be repaired and contributing to control of islands.

There might not be much left after the Air Attack phase but without Fighter intercept a combined air force will get some bombers thru to the sea battle and those extra dice will make a difference.

As I mentioned earlier the Air Force alone won’t win the game but mismanagement of the skies will lose it. A combined arms force is called for in this one.

[legion3]

If you are not intercepted! But if the player who moves his aircraft second (unless he has none) will (or should) intercept any airfleet large enough to damage a fleet. The second player has the advantage in aircraft usage (again unless he does not have any) as he knows how to respond. Aircraft range seems somewhat irrelvent to the seabattles, most aircraft have the range to reach almost any sea zone with carriers. Island spaces are a bit more dicey.

Given the way casualties are handled…maybe some bombers get through maybe not.

You almost have to have airplanes in this game as you say Frimmel but they are now expendable infantry of the skies as Maarek stated.

sorry, until one of our games has aircraft wipe out a fleet, I just don’t fear them. One game was a blowout do to the US losing all their aircraft, while the Japanese lost none, but this was do to the dice gods…and has not been repeated.

[dinosaur]

There are several interesting comments and I think we are in substantial agreement that fighters are not the factor in AAG as they are in AAR.  I can’t speak to other A&A games because I don’t have them.

First regarding a comment on scale … This version is strange.  Carriers are still carrying two aircraft units so I would think the units are about the same scale, but they definately don’t have the same punch.  Could it be that time as changed scale in this game and this has an effect?  Guadalcanal is a small place compared to Europe or Asia, but I still see ‘stacks’ of infantry and artillery in AAG.  Granted, these stacks are five or seven deep, and the AAR stacks are twice that, but this is nothing compared to the scale of the two theatres.

I see the battle box as the factor that has changed everything.  We no longer have stacks of infantry to absorb the blows to let our fighters eat away at the enemy on a 50% chance of killing an enemy.  Now the fighters have only a 17% chance of killing a destroyer with a 17% bonus chance of at least damaging him.  AND they have to survive the air combat phase just to get that chance.  It is a massive change from what we are accustomed.

For my part, I see bombers as the real strike aircraft and fighters as bomber escorts.  With an abundance of fighters, your bombers chances of getting hit are 33% due to the battle box arrangement.  However, it doesn’t appear wise to attack a substantial fleet with aircraft alone.  The additional AA capacity of ships will make it hurt.  If you are bringing your ships along, at least he will feel the same pain.  No, the air threat appears to be notable when sending a small force to drop off supplies and reinforcements.  Two or three destroyers added to a convoy of transports is a tasty target if the enemy is within range of four adequately escorted bombers.  Now the tide can be turned against them.  If you don’t get some really bad dice in the air phase, you start sinking loaded(!) transports.  These supply expeditions need CAP and this is one reason you need fighters in abundance.  You can’t send your fleet CAP everywhere, so you have to choose.

And there is the invasion itself.  Adding fighters and bombers to the ground assault is a major factor if the enemy hasn’t dug in and added AA guns.  The problem is there are not may places where you can bring that many bombers to the fight because of range restrictions.  Finally, the big gamble bombing mission on the enemy airfield is always good for some excitement at the end of the game.  On the whole, it is a game with good play balance and a lot of tension because time is running out from the first turn.  I hope y’all enjoy it as much as I do.

[legion3]

But are they really escorts?
The way the battlebox, wrap around hits occur, it is conceivable that an attack with fighters and  bombers may end up with only fighters left over.

And the effort may not be any sunk ships just damaged ones. Good thing airplanes are cheap. If they cost standard AA prices…would you buy very many?

Airplanes alone are not much of a threat to ships. Even without CAP the ships can throw up a lot of AA fire. With CAP they are really protected. Even a resupply DD scooting along alone swarmed by fighters is not guaranteed to be sunk.

Still I like the game even with airplanes and subs as they are. It just takes some getting used to.

[dinosaur]

Well, I consider fighters as bomber escorts for the following reason: With fighters the chances to lose a bomber is reduced by two-thirds.  The battle box has four slots for fighters and then two for bombers.  Yes, a direct hit on a bomber does kill it and the fighters didn’t change that, but, consider that with only one fighter and one bomber, the attacker has to roll a hit on his fifth or sixth die to score that (direct) hit.  Heck he even has to roll at least five dice to get that chance (of scoring a direct hit).  If he rolls four or less, he can’t hit an escorted bomber without killing the fighter first.  The odds are much improved for bombers when fighters are sent as escorts.  Just don’t send them at a fleet alone.

[legion3]

You are not counting hits properly.

All the defender has to do is score 2 hits with his first two dice or any combination of hits and both planes the fighter and bomber are gone. All hits are a hit… the hit still counts, but will hit a different unit type of that catagory.  A hit on a bomber does not occur only if the 5 or 6 die is a hit.

The hits keep on coming in this game.

All hits hit something and you do not have to roll 5 or more dice to hit a bomber.

To use your example a Bomber and a fighter attack two destroyers, all the DD’s have to roll is two dice, if those two dice are both ones or two’s both planes are shot down…not just the fighter. the hit on the second fighter wraps around until you find a unit that can take the hit…the bomber.

See page 18 Topic Hitting Units you Enemy doesn’t have.

[legion3]

See this thread on wrap around hits

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=11029.0

[frimmel]

@legion3:

You are not counting hits properly.

All the defender has to do is score 2 hits with his first two dice or any combination of hits and both planes the fighter and bomber are gone. All hits are a hit… the hit still counts, but will hit a different unit type of that catagory.  A hit on a bomber does not occur only if the 5 or 6 die is a hit.

The hits keep on coming in this game.

All hits hit something and you do not have to roll 5 or more dice to hit a bomber.

To use your example a Bomber and a fighter attack two destroyers, all the DD’s have to roll is two dice, if those two dice are both ones or two’s both planes are shot down…not just the fighter. the hit on the second fighter wraps around until you find a unit that can take the hit…the bomber.

See page 18 Topic Hitting Units you Enemy doesn’t have.

You are correct and dinosaur is wrong about neccessarily needing five dice (counting hits somewhat incorrectly in his example) but right that more fighters will protect bombers.

More fighters increase the number of dice you need to hit a bomber. Your destroyers with their two dice will have less chance of hitting the bomber if there are more fighters right? 2 fighters and the bomber against the two dice from the destroyers would be unable to get thru the fighter screen correct?

Even against just the fighter and bomber you need both dice to hit. Only one hit can only get a fighter. Until my opponent has more than four dice I can protect bombers by matching Air Attack dice with fighters. The more fighters the more protection from wraparound hits for the bombers.

[Krieghund]

@frimmel:

@legion3:

You are not counting hits properly.

All the defender has to do is score 2 hits with his first two dice or any combination of hits and both planes the fighter and bomber are gone. All hits are a hit… the hit still counts, but will hit a different unit type of that catagory.  A hit on a bomber does not occur only if the 5 or 6 die is a hit.

The hits keep on coming in this game.

All hits hit something and you do not have to roll 5 or more dice to hit a bomber.

To use your example a Bomber and a fighter attack two destroyers, all the DD’s have to roll is two dice, if those two dice are both ones or two’s both planes are shot down…not just the fighter. the hit on the second fighter wraps around until you find a unit that can take the hit…the bomber.

See page 18 Topic Hitting Units you Enemy doesn’t have.

You are correct and dinosaur is wrong about neccessarily needing five dice (counting hits somewhat incorrectly in his example) but right that more fighters will protect bombers.

I’m not sure Dinosaur is really wrong.  I think he just may not have stated the situation clearly:

@dinosaur:

Well, I consider fighters as bomber escorts for the following reason: With fighters the chances to lose a bomber is reduced by two-thirds.  The battle box has four slots for fighters and then two for bombers.  Yes, a direct hit on a bomber does kill it and the fighters didn’t change that, but, consider that with only one fighter and one bomber, the attacker has to roll a hit on his fifth or sixth die to score that hit.  Heck he even has to roll at least five dice to get that chance.  If he rolls four or less, he can’t hit an escorted bomber without killing the fighter first.

I think he meant that the attacker has to roll at least five dice in order to have a chance to hit a bomber directly.  Otherwise, he can’t hit a bomber without hitting all of the escorting fighters first.  This is true.  Of course, I may be misinterpreting his statement.

@frimmel:

More fighters increase the number of dice you need to hit a bomber. Your destroyers with their two dice will have less chance of hitting the bomber if there are more fighters right? 2 fighters and the bomber against the two dice from the destroyers would be unable to get thru the fighter screen correct?

Correct.

@frimmel:

Even against just the fighter and bomber you need both dice to hit. Only one hit can only get a fighter. Until my opponent has more than four dice I can protect bombers by matching Air Attack dice with fighters. The more fighters the more protection from wraparound hits for the bombers.

Right again!

[legion3]

@dinosaur:

Yes, a direct hit on a bomber does kill it and the fighters didn’t change that, but, consider that with only one fighter and one bomber, the attacker has to roll a hit on his fifth or sixth die to score that hit.  Heck he even has to roll at least five dice to get that chance.  If he rolls four or less, he can’t hit an escorted bomber without killing the fighter first.   The odds are much improved for bombers when fighters are sent as escorts.  Just don’t send them at a fleet alone.

With only 1 FtF and 1 Bmb he does not have to roll a hit on his fifth or sixth die to score a hit. It seems to me he feels the 5 and 6 slot on the battlebox is the only way to hit a bomber and it clearly is not.

I understand that as you add fighters the enemy force would need to add dice in order to hit the bombers but really how often is your enemy only going to have 4 dice?

And again to stress the weakness of aircraft you could have all your fighters destroyed, get your bombers through, make your attacks and still hit nothing or just damage a few things. C’est la guerre.

Air attacks without sea power in support seems to have big risk, little gain.

[dinosaur]

Krieghund, thanks for coming to my defense.  I must apologize for not being more careful.  However, I am very often accused of being tiresome when I spell out every single thought necessary to make my point.  Although, it appears in my haste to edit my own post, I made a mistake.  I fear that if I make the whole of my case I will be considered tiresome.  So, in brief let me say …

Yes my main point is that with fighters, bombers enjoy a special one-third protection in general.  With small numbers of aircraft, which would most likely be used against only small numbers of AA dice, the benefit is often even better.  In my example with one fighter and one bomber, against one die, the bomber is of course immune to AA.  Against two AA dice, the bomber is only at risk 11.1% of the time.  Against three AA dice, the bomber is only at risk 7/27 of the time, still less than one-third.  Against four dice the odds put the bomber at risk 33/81 of the time, which is now slightly more than one-third.  Against five dice, the odds for the bomber drop quickly because now the bomber has a direct chance of getting stung by the fifth die.  And six dice is only worse.  But regardless of the number of dice, the chances of a bomber getting whacked drops substantially, even if you add only one fighter.  More fighters only makes things better.

My point is that fighters clearly improve the effectiveness of bombers to deliver damage on the enemy.  In general, the battle box indicates this to be a drop to about one-third the chances of getting eaten by AA, but specific numbers of attack dice and fighter escorts will have some effect on the real odds in a particular battle.

I recognize the names of the folks in this thread as notable contributors to the forum.  I hope I have not given offense while defending my thesis on the merits of using fighters in conjunction with bombers.

edit:  After reading the questioned post, I feel I was clearer than I was credited.  I did state, and was later highlighted in italics, that you need to kill the fighter first when rolling less than five dice.  This is exactly what others went on to illustrate in their challenges, that two hits would kill the bomber, which is what I said in my own words.

[frimmel]

I certainly don’t need convinced on the merits of escorts.  :-)

[Krieghund]

@dinosaur:

Krieghund, thanks for coming to my defense.

My pleasure.

@dinosaur:

I hope I have not given offense while defending my thesis on the merits of using fighters in conjunction with bombers.

Of course not.  Healthy debate is good.

[legion3]

Oh no  :-o  … no offense and hopefully I have caused none.

I agree completely, the more airplanes (escorts) the better the chances of getting some sort of hits but as I originally posted, they just aren’t the fear weapon in this game they should be.

Also since you are using dice statistics on bomber safety, what then would be the statistic of the single bomber actually hitting anything? The ships have such an advantage of being damaged.

My only issue is that airplanes are weak in this game and are not to be used alone unless the fleet or force you are facing is minimal. Which I stated in my original post. I am just defending my thesis and still don’t see the threat aircraft have in this game. As others have said combined assaults or your chances of success are extremely random at best.

Player 2 has such an advantage as to how battles will unfold by countering air movement.

[frimmel]

@legion3:

My only issue is that airplanes are weak in this game and are not to be used alone unless the fleet or force you are facing is minimal. Which I stated in my original post.

I can’t fault this thinking.

I am just defending my thesis and still don’t see the threat aircraft have in this game. As others have said combined assaults or your chances of success are extremely random at best.

Player 2 has such an advantage as to how battles will unfold by countering air movement.

Player 2’s advantage is I think why you have to keep your air forces concentrated unless of course you have a significant numerical advantage.

[Krieghund]

I’m working on some variant rules to address this issue.  Hopefully they’ll be ready for publication before too much longer.

[dinosaur]

Legion3,

I think I’ll take up that challenge, although it will take a little time.  First off, I doubt the numbers will look good for aircraft going after a fleet of any real size.  But I think small supply excursions can be more vulnerable than you may think.  Lets look at some smaller engagements.

One bomber going after one destroyer carrying no cargo …
0.3333 chance the bomber dies in AA round
0.3333 chance the bomber kills the DD if it survives to take the shot
0.2222 chance the bomber damages the DD if it survives to take the shot
(-$5) x 0.3333 + ($5) x 0.3333 x 0.6667 + ($2) x 0.2222 x 0.6667 = -$0.2593

One bomber going after one destroyer carrying $2 of cargo … +$0.4815

One bomber and one fighter going after one destroyer carrying no cargo …
0.3333 chance the fighter dies in AA round
0.4815 chance the airplanes kill the DD if they survive to take the shot
0.2222 chance the airplanes damage the DD if they survive to take the shot
0.3333 chance the bomber kills the DD if fighter is killed
0.2222 chance the bomber damages the DD if fighter is killed
(-$3) x 0.3333 + ($5) x 0.4815 x 0.6667 + ($2) x 0.2222 x 0.6667 + ($5) x 0.3333 x 0.3333 + ($2) x 0.2222 x 0.3333 = +$1.605

One bomber and one fighter going after one destroyer carrying $2 of cargo … +$2.914

Give me a little more time and I’ll take a look at adding a tranny before I add destroyers.  BTW, notice that a cruiser is no better than a destroyer in this battle so using a cruiser rather than a destroyer only increases the risk (in dollars) to the supply convoy.  Tell me you are not a bit surprised with these numbers.(?)

[legion3]

No doubt the smaller supply groups are more vulnerable than larger fleets, however, the risk might be worth the gamble.

In A&A, A&AR, A&AE and A&AP given the power of aircraft, and the lack of an “air attack phase” a single DD (or comperable unit) vs a BMB or BMB/FTR, the DD is likely doomed with a much greater statistical value.

In A&AG I would still not fear to send a small unit given the random nature of hits. In the 15 or so games my friends and I have played, I have never seen Airplanes (without ships) ever be more than a nusiance to plan around.

Fantastic statistics and the numbers are interesting but what did Han Solo say…

“never tell me the odds”.  :wink:

Actually keep up the good work.

[dinosaur]

Well here is another small installation:

One Bomber and two fighters going after a destroyer carrying no cargo …
0.3333 chance a fighter dies in AA round
0.6049 chance the airplanes kill the DD if they all survive th AA round
0.1975 chance the airplanes damage the DD if they all survive the AA round
0.4815 chance the airplanes kill the DD if the DD kills a fighter
0.2222 chance the airplanes damage the DD if the DD kills a fighter
(-$3) x 0.3333 + $5 x 0.6667 x 0.6049 + $2 x 0.6667 x 0.1975 + $5 x 0.3333 x 0.4815 + $2 x 0.3333 x 0.2222 = $2.230

One bomber and two fighters going after one destroyer carrying $2 cargo … $3.770

The situation becomes much more complex when you have more than one variety of ship in play.  I’ll give you the tranny one tomorrow.

[dinosaur]

Well, as promised, I have a set of scenarios including a transport …

One bomber going after a DD and one TRN carrying no cargo …
0.3333 chance the bomber dies in the AA round
0.0556 chance the bmr kills the DD and the TRN if it survives AA
0.2778 chance the bmr kills the DD if it survives AA
0.2222 chance the bmr damages the DD if it survives AA
(-$5) x 0.3333 + ($7) x 0.6667 x 0.0556 + ($5) x 0.6667 x 0.2778 + ($2) x 0.6667 x 0.2222 = -$0.185

One bomber vs. one DD and one TRN carrying $2 Cargo … -$0.111

One bomber vs. one DD and one TRN carrying $4 Cargo … -$0.037

One bomber vs. one DD carrying $2 Cargo and one TRN carrying $4 Cargo … $0.630

One bomber and one fighter going after a DD and one TRN carrying no cargo …
0.3333 chance the fighter dies in the AA round
0.0556 chance the bmr kills the DD and the TRN if ftr killed in AA
0.2778 chance the bmr kills the DD if ftr killed in AA
0.2222 chance the bmr damages the DD if ftr killed in AA
0.1481 chance the airplanes kill the DD and TRN if they all survive the AA
0.3333 chance the airplanes kill the DD if they all survive AA
0.2222 chance the airplanes damage the DD if they all survive AA
(-$3) x 0.3333 + ($7) x 0.3333 x 0.0556 + ($5) x 0.3333 x 0.2778 + ($2) x 0.3333 x 0.2222 + ($7) x 0.6667 x 0.1481 + ($5) x 0.6667 x 0.3333 + ($2) x 0.6667 x 0.2222 = $1.850

One bomber and one fighter vs. one DD and one TRN carrying $2 Cargo … $2.074

One bomber and one fighter vs. one DD and one TRN carrying $4 Cargo … $2.309

One bomber and one fighter vs. one DD carrying $2 Cargo and one TRN carrying $4 Cargo … $3.617

One bomber and two fighters going after a DD and one TRN carrying no cargo …
0.3333 chance a fighter dies in the AA round
0.1481 chance the airplanes kill the DD and the TRN if a ftr killed in AA
0.3333 chance the airplanes kill the DD if a ftr killed in AA
0.2222 chance the airplanes damage the DD if a ftr killed in AA
0.2593 chance the airplanes kill the DD and TRN if they all survive the AA
0.3457 chance the airplanes kill the DD if they all survive AA
0.1975 chance the airplanes damage the DD if they all survive AA
(-$3) x 0.3333 + ($7) x 0.3333 x 0.1481 + ($5) x 0.3333 x 0.3333 + ($2) x 0.3333 x 0.2222 + ($7) x 0.6667 x 0.2593 + ($5) x 0.6667 x 0.3457 + ($2) x 0.6667 x 0.1975 = $2.675

One bomber and two fighters vs. one DD and one TRN carrying $2 Cargo … $3.119

One bomber and two fighters vs. one DD and one TRN carrying $4 Cargo … $3.564

One bomber and two fighters vs. one DD carrying $2 Cargo and one TRN carrying $4 Cargo … $5.103

Since it is clear that one bomber alone is not good, one fighter and one bomber derive a positive benefit and adding fighters makes the score rise rapidly, there is no reason to explore other combinations of aircraft in this case.  The next set of statistics will be prepared for aircraft against two destroyers.  Then I will add transports to that case also.