18L MrRoboto (Axis) vs JDOW (Allies) BM3 Game 3

[arathorn]

KILL!!!

[MrRoboto]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.3

Game History

Round: 3

Purchase Units - Italians
            Italians buy 1 fighter; Remaining resources: 5 PUs;

Politics - Italians
            Italians takes Political Action: Political Action Axis To War With Russians
                Italians succeeds on action: Political Action Axis To War With Russians: Changing Relationship for Italians and Russians from Neutrality to War
                Italians succeeds on action: Political Action Axis To War With Russians: Changing Relationship for Russians and British from Neutrality to Allied
                Italians succeeds on action: Political Action Axis To War With Russians: Changing Relationship for Russians and UK_Pacific from Neutrality to Allied
                Italians succeeds on action: Political Action Axis To War With Russians: Changing Relationship for Russians and ANZAC from Neutrality to Allied
                Italians succeeds on action: Political Action Axis To War With Russians: Changing Relationship for Russians and French from Neutrality to Allied
                Italians succeeds on action: Political Action Axis To War With Russians: Changing Relationship for Russians and Neutral_Allies from Neutrality to Friendly_Neutral
                Italians succeeds on action: Political Action Axis To War With Russians: Changing Relationship for Russians and Neutral_Axis from Neutrality to Unfriendly_Neutral
            Italians takes Political Action: Political Action Italians To War With Chinese
                Italians succeeds on action: Political Action Italians To War With Chinese: Changing Relationship for Italians and Chinese from Neutrality to War
            Trigger Russians Allied Americans 3: Changing Relationship for Russians and Americans from Neutrality to Allied

Combat Move - Italians
            2 artilleries and 2 infantry moved from Romania to Bessarabia
                  Italians take Bessarabia from Russians
            2 armour moved from Slovakia Hungary to Eastern Poland
                  Italians take Eastern Poland from Russians
            2 armour moved from Eastern Poland to Baltic States
                  Italians take Baltic States from Russians
            2 infantry moved from Southern Italy to 97 Sea Zone
            2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 97 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
            2 infantry moved from 92 Sea Zone to Morocco
            1 armour, 2 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from Tunisia to Algeria
            1 bomber and 1 fighter moved from Southern Italy to 110 Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Ethiopia to Kenya
                  Italians take Kenya from British
            1 battleship, 2 cruisers and 2 destroyers moved from 97 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
            1 carrier and 1 fighter moved from 97 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
            1 transport moved from 97 Sea Zone to 96 Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Libya to 96 Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 96 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 92 Sea Zone to Algeria

Combat - Italians
            Battle in Morocco
            Battle in 110 Sea Zone
                Italians attack with 1 bomber and 1 fighter
                British defend with 1 transport
                    1 transport owned by the British lost in 110 Sea Zone
                Italians win, taking Morocco from British with 1 bomber and 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
                Casualties for British: 1 transport
            Battle in Algeria
                Italians attack with 1 armour, 1 artillery, 3 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
                French defend with 1 infantry
                    Italians roll dice for 1 battleship and 1 cruiser in Algeria, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 1,17 expected hits
                    Italians roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery, 3 infantry and 1 mech_infantry in Algeria, round 2 : 1/6 hits, 1,67 expected hits
                    French roll dice for 1 infantry in Algeria, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the French lost in Algeria
                Italians win, taking Algeria from French with 1 armour, 1 artillery, 3 infantry and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for French: 1 infantry

Non Combat Move - Italians
            1 fighter moved from 110 Sea Zone to Normandy Bordeaux
            1 bomber moved from 110 Sea Zone to France
            1 submarine moved from 97 Sea Zone to 95 Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Libya to Tunisia

Place Units - Italians
            1 fighter placed in Southern Italy

Turn Complete - Italians
            Italians collect 20 PUs; end with 25 PUs
            Objective Italians 1 Control The Mediterranean: Italians met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 30 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Italians : -1,83
    French : -0,33

triplea_42302_Ita3.tsvg

[MrRoboto]

In case you wanted to scramble in one of the two fights, please roll it here on the forums.

[JDOW]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.3

Game History

Round: 3

Purchase Units - ANZAC
            ANZAC buy 1 destroyer and 1 submarine; Remaining resources: 1 PUs;

Combat Move - ANZAC

Non Combat Move - ANZAC
            1 infantry moved from New Guinea to Dutch New Guinea
                  ANZAC take Dutch New Guinea from Dutch
            1 marine moved from New South Wales to Queensland
            1 cruiser and 1 destroyer moved from 62 Sea Zone to 54 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from South Australia to Queensland
            1 fighter moved from Burma to India
            2 infantry moved from Queensland to South Australia
            1 aaGun moved from Queensland to South Australia

Place Units - ANZAC
            1 destroyer and 1 submarine placed in 62 Sea Zone

Turn Complete - ANZAC
            ANZAC collect 10 PUs; end with 11 PUs
            Objective ANZAC 3 Pacific Supply Lines: ANZAC met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 14 PUs
            Objective ANZAC 2 Control Strategic Islands: ANZAC met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 17 PUs

Combat Move - French

Non Combat Move - French
            1 destroyer moved from 81 Sea Zone to 77 Sea Zone

Turn Complete - French

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

triplea_42302_Fre3.tsvg

[JDOW]

@MrRoboto:

In case you wanted to scramble in one of the two fights, please roll it here on the forums.

It’s okay, RAF still licking their wounds :(

[MrRoboto]

TripleA Move Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.3

Game History

Round: 4

Research Technology - Germans

Purchase Units - Germans
            Germans buy 3 artilleries, 1 fighter, 7 infantry and 1 submarine; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Politics - Germans
            Germans takes Political Action: Political Action Axis To War With Russians
                Germans succeeds on action: Political Action Axis To War With Russians: Changing Relationship for Germans and Russians from Neutrality to War

Combat Move - Germans
            1 mech_infantry moved from Poland to Western Ukraine
                  Germans take Western Ukraine from Russians
            1 mech_infantry moved from Poland to Novgorod
                  Germans take Novgorod from Russians
            1 infantry moved from Finland to Vyborg
                  Germans take Vyborg from Russians
            6 infantry moved from Finland to Karelia
                  Germans take Karelia from Russians
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Normandy Bordeaux to Holland Belgium
            1 infantry moved from Western Germany to Holland Belgium
            2 bombers and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Normandy Bordeaux to 91 Sea Zone
            2 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers moved from Southern Italy to 91 Sea Zone

triplea_42302_Ger4.tsvg

[MrRoboto]

Will you scramble?

[JDOW]

Sure, full scramble.

[MrRoboto]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.3

Game History

Round: 4

Research Technology - Germans

Purchase Units - Germans
            Germans buy 3 artilleries, 1 fighter, 7 infantry and 1 submarine; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Politics - Germans
            Germans takes Political Action: Political Action Axis To War With Russians
                Germans succeeds on action: Political Action Axis To War With Russians: Changing Relationship for Germans and Russians from Neutrality to War

Combat Move - Germans
            1 mech_infantry moved from Poland to Western Ukraine
                  Germans take Western Ukraine from Russians
            1 mech_infantry moved from Poland to Novgorod
                  Germans take Novgorod from Russians
            1 infantry moved from Finland to Vyborg
                  Germans take Vyborg from Russians
            6 infantry moved from Finland to Karelia
                  Germans take Karelia from Russians
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Normandy Bordeaux to Holland Belgium
            1 infantry moved from Western Germany to Holland Belgium
            2 bombers and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Normandy Bordeaux to 91 Sea Zone
            2 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers moved from Southern Italy to 91 Sea Zone

Combat - Germans
            Americans scrambles 3 units out of Gibraltar to defend against the attack in 91 Sea Zone
            Battle in Holland Belgium
                Germans attack with 1 artillery and 2 infantry
                British defend with 1 infantry
                    Germans roll dice for 1 artillery and 2 infantry in Holland Belgium, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 0,83 expected hits
                    British roll dice for 1 infantry in Holland Belgium, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Germans and 1 infantry owned by the British lost in Holland Belgium
                Germans win, taking Holland Belgium from British with 1 artillery and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
                Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
                Casualties for British: 1 infantry
            Battle in 91 Sea Zone
                Germans attack with 2 bombers, 2 fighters and 4 tactical_bombers
                British defend with 1 armour, 3 fighters and 1 transport; French defend with 1 fighter; Americans defend with 1 carrier, 1 cruiser, 1 fighter and 2 transports
                    Germans roll dice for 2 bombers, 2 fighters and 4 tactical_bombers in 91 Sea Zone, round 2 : 6/8 hits, 4,67 expected hits
                    Americans roll dice for 1 carrier, 1 cruiser, 5 fighters and 3 transports in 91 Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/7 hits, 4,17 expected hits
                    1 cruiser owned by the Americans, 1 carrier owned by the Americans, 1 fighter owned by the Americans, 2 tactical_bombers owned by the Germans and 2 fighters owned by the British lost in 91 Sea Zone
                    Germans roll dice for 2 bombers, 2 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers in 91 Sea Zone, round 3 : 2/6 hits, 3,67 expected hits
                    Americans roll dice for 2 fighters and 3 transports in 91 Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/2 hits, 1,33 expected hits
                    1 fighter owned by the Germans, 1 fighter owned by the French and 1 fighter owned by the British lost in 91 Sea Zone
                    1 transport owned by the British, 2 transports owned by the Americans and 1 armour owned by the British lost in 91 Sea Zone
                Germans win with 2 bombers, 1 fighter and 2 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 73
                Casualties for Germans: 1 fighter and 2 tactical_bombers
                Casualties for Americans: 1 carrier, 1 cruiser, 1 fighter and 2 transports
                Casualties for British: 1 armour, 3 fighters and 1 transport
                Casualties for French: 1 fighter

Non Combat Move - Germans
            1 fighter and 2 tactical_bombers moved from 91 Sea Zone to Morocco
            2 bombers moved from 91 Sea Zone to Normandy Bordeaux
            1 transport moved from 113 Sea Zone to 112 Sea Zone
            2 armour and 5 mech_infantrys moved from Germany to Poland
            5 aaGuns, 13 armour, 11 artilleries, 28 infantry and 9 mech_infantrys moved from Poland to Baltic States
            4 infantry moved from Romania to Bessarabia

Place Units - Germans
            1 submarine placed in 110 Sea Zone
            1 fighter placed in Western Germany
            2 infantry placed in France
            1 infantry placed in Normandy Bordeaux
            3 artilleries and 4 infantry placed in Germany

Turn Complete - Germans
            Germans collect 44 PUs; end with 44 PUs
            Trigger Germans 5 Swedish Iron Ore: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 49 PUs
            Objective Germans 2 Control Novgorod Or Volgograd Or Russia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 54 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans : -0,17
    British : 0,67
    Americans : -2,50

triplea_42302_Ger4.tsvg

[MrRoboto]

Well that went better than hoped

[JDOW]

OK aber LOL. Das ist der Moment, wo man eigentlich nur noch das Brett umwerfen kann. Erst runnst du 40 TUV over average bei meiner 110 attack und jetzt machst du eine extrem riskante 54% attack mit deiner gesamten Deutschen Air force und verlierst nur 3 Air.

Das ist ab hier nun wirklich nur noch ein reines Dice game.

[JDOW]

Sinnlos echt. Einfach mal irgendwie ca. 100 TUV in Europe wegen der Dice vom Board genommen bekommen. Spielt sich wie mit einer -100 Bid jetzt das Game  :x :x :x :x :x :x :x :x :x :x :x :x :x :x :x :x :x

[JDOW]

Ich glaube, das war die extremste Dice Ownage, die ich bisher in der Saison kassiert habe.

[MrRoboto]

Ich verstehe deine Aufregung ja, aber es ist nicht so richtig sportsmanlike, wie du dich gerade verhältst.

Der Angriff ist riskant, klar - aber nur sehr wenige Würfel entscheiden hier über sehr viel TUV Unterschied. Die Chance, dass ich 1-2 Treffer mehr als Average bekomme und du vielleicht 1-2 weniger als Average in der ersten Runde ist gar nicht so klein. Das passiert bei so wenigen Würfeln doch relativ oft und deswegen habe ich den Angriff auch gewagt. Und so unwahrscheinlich ist das dann eben auch nicht, die erste Runde war sehr gut klar, aber letztendlich habe ich 1,33 Treffer mehr als Durchschnitt und du 2,17 weniger als Durchschnitt gemacht. Das ist alles andere als “krasse dice”.

[MrRoboto]

Die Chance, den französischen Fighter aus dem Spiel zu nehmen und eben durch die Transports das Momentum zu zerstören rechtfertigt den Angriff auf alle Fälle und nach einer schlechten ersten Runde kann man sich als Angreifer ja auch zurückziehen.

[JDOW]

Ja, sorry fuer den Rant, ist eine schlechte Eigenschaft von mir. Du kannst ja nichts fuer die dice.

Aber wenn man sich die survival Verteilung mal anschaut: http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/graph.php?cmd=piechart&rules=1940&battleType=sea&attFighter=2&attTacticalBomber=4&attBomber=2&defFighter=5&defCruiser=1&defAircraftCarrier=1

Du hast eine 6,8% Chance, die Battle mit 5 oder mehr air zu gewinnen.
Kombiniere das jetzt noch damit, dass du in 110 4 air over average gekillt hast. Das war bottom 12.9%, wie man hier sehen kann: http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/graph.php?cmd=piechart&rules=1940&battleType=sea&attFighter=6&attBomber=1&attDestroyer=1&attCruiser=2&attAircraftCarrier=1&defFighter=2&defSubmarine=1&defDestroyer=1&defCruiser=1&defAircraftCarrier=1&defBattleship=1

Also haben wir 2 battles in Kombination, die den worst 0,9% fuer mich entsprechen.

Ich denke schon, dass man das als “krasse Dice” bezeichnen kann ;)

Mein Rant war dennoch voellig ubertrieben, sorry nochmal.

[JDOW]

Ich hab da mit Axis einen anderen Approach. Die battle geht schief (selbst wenn du dich nach Round 1 zurueck ziehst und das Game ist gelaufen in Europe. Germans koennen keinen Crippled Air Force out of position von Russia UND Allies mit Transports und co in position ueberleben.

Daher ist das fuer mein Spielverstaendnis kein “hit and run, den mal mal versuchen kann” sondern ein All-in, der sogar zum sicheren Niedergang fuehrt, wenn er knapp mit 1 oder 2 Bombern gewonnen wird. Das waere dann ein Pyhrrus-Sieg, weil Deutschland an der Ostfront nicht mit 2 Air fortschreiten kann und die kommenden Landungen der Allies nicht gleichzeitig verteidigen kann.

[JDOW]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.3

Game History

Round: 4

Purchase Units - Russians
            Russians buy 3 armour and 5 mech_infantrys; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Combat Move - Russians
            2 infantry moved from Ukraine to Western Ukraine
            1 fighter moved from Russia to Western Ukraine
            1 infantry moved from Belarus to Novgorod
            1 fighter moved from Belarus to Novgorod
            1 tactical_bomber moved from Belarus to Novgorod

Combat - Russians
            Battle in Novgorod
                Russians attack with 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
                Germans defend with 1 airfield, 1 factory_minor, 1 harbour and 1 mech_infantry
                    Russians roll dice for 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Novgorod, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 1,33 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 mech_infantry in Novgorod, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Novgorod
                retreated to Novgorod
                Germans win with 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -3
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
            Battle in Western Ukraine
                Russians attack with 1 fighter and 2 infantry
                Germans defend with 1 mech_infantry
                    Russians roll dice for 1 fighter and 2 infantry in Western Ukraine, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 0,83 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 mech_infantry in Western Ukraine, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 fighter and 2 infantry in Western Ukraine, round 3 : 1/3 hits, 0,83 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 mech_infantry in Western Ukraine, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                    1 mech_infantry owned by the Germans lost in Western Ukraine
                Russians win, taking Western Ukraine from Germans with 1 fighter and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 4
                Casualties for Germans: 1 mech_infantry

Non Combat Move - Russians
            1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Novgorod to Belarus
            2 aaGuns, 2 armour, 6 artilleries, 6 infantry and 3 mech_infantrys moved from Bryansk to Belarus
            1 fighter moved from Western Ukraine to Belarus
            1 infantry moved from Ukraine to Bryansk
            9 infantry moved from Russia to Bryansk
            3 infantry moved from Timguska to Novosibirsk
            2 aaGuns and 15 infantry moved from Amur to Buryatia
            1 submarine moved from 106 Sea Zone to 109 Sea Zone

Place Units - Russians
            3 armour and 5 mech_infantrys placed in Russia

Turn Complete - Russians
            Russians collect 32 PUs; end with 32 PUs
            Trigger Russians 7 Great Patriotic War: Russians met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 35 PUs
            Trigger Russians 2 Persia Lend Lease Lane: Russians met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 37 PUs
            Trigger Russians 3 Siberia Lend Lease Lane: Russians met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 39 PUs
            Trigger Russians 1 Lend Lease: Russians met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 41 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans : 0,00
    Russians : -2,00

triplea_42302_Rus4.tsvg

[JDOW]

Ja, und deine Mech trifft nicht nur, sie ueberlebt auch in Novo, wo jede Unit die Odds in Bela signifikant beeinflusst.

Das ist wirklich sehr einseitig von MARTI das game bisher.

[MrRoboto]

@JDOW:

Aber wenn man sich die survival Verteilung mal anschaut: http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/graph.php?cmd=piechart&rules=1940&battleType=sea&attFighter=2&attTacticalBomber=4&attBomber=2&defFighter=5&defCruiser=1&defAircraftCarrier=1

Du hast eine 6,8% Chance, die Battle mit 5 oder mehr air zu gewinnen.

Ja das ist so eine Sache mit den Kalkulatoren. Es gibt da durchaus verschiedene Herangehensweisen. Du bist natürlich der klar bessere Spieler, das steht außer Frage. Aber Mathematik kann ich (ich bin Diplom-Mathematiker).

Ich habe mir die erste Runde gerade manuell ausgerechnet und es gibt eine Chance von etwa 59,55%, dass ich in der ersten Runde 6 oder mehr Treffer erziele (Durchschnitt sind 4 2/3 Treffer). Das ist eigentlich der wichtigste Wert, denn danach bleiben ja nur noch 2 Hits für die zweite Runde übrig, damit ich deine Transporter bekomme.

Deine erste Runde war schon deutlicher: Die Chance, dass du höchstens 2 Treffer erzielst, liegt bei 19,55%. Selbst wenn du hier aber, wie im Durchschnitt, 4 Treffer erzielst, mache ich eher wahrscheinlich die 2 Treffer in der zweiten Runde, die Transporter sind also dann höchstwahrscheinlich weg.

Worauf ich hinaus möchte: Die Chance, dass ich in der ersten Runde 6 Treffer oder mehr erziele und du höchstens 2 erzielst, liegt zusammen bei 11,6%, wobei es mir aber vor allem darum ging, deine Transporter zu killen. (Ob das strategisch sinnvoll ist, sei mal dahin gestellt - das kannst du besser beurteilen als ich). Das ist natürlich kein Spitzenwert, aber andererseits auch weit weg von krass außergewöhnlichen Dice.

Die erste Runde spielt halt, insbesondere bei Sea Battles, eine riesige Rolle und das ist über solche Kalkulatoren immer schwer abbildbar, weil die nur das Gesamtergebnis ausspucken, aber eben nicht den Effekt einer außergewöhnlichen Runde wirklich gut darlegen.