Farmboy (Axis) vs Gargantua (Allies) BM

Gargantua

So I’ve been having some fun.

I developed a Hit-Handicap parser program, to tangibly measure luck/performance in Axis and Allies, with a mathematician/programmer friend of mine.

Here’s how it works; it reads the entire text log of a TripleA game. Adds up all the attack and defense power, divides by 6; showing how many hits a player should have expected on average. It then compares that to actual hits scored. It does this for both axis and allies. Battle by Battle.

For example, if I attacked you with 4 tanks, I should get 2 hits, and if you defended with 3 inf, you should get 1 hit.
Say I score 0 hits, my HH would be -2, and say you scored 3 hits, your HH would be +2.

In a perfect world, both players should hover around 0; scoring roughly as many hits as would be statistically normal. Deviation between both players numbers, then becomes the Hit-Handicap. Alot of dice get rolled, so the higher the differential the more extreme the game has become.

Now, extrapolate that exact same equation, over an entire game; and voila, you have a precise hit handicap. of how many more extra hits your enemy or yourself has, over the opponent!

I’ve put this forward to the TripleA dev’s and they are hopefully going to add it to the game in the next update! So people can
finally stop bickering about luck, and actually know the quantities of how good or bad it is. Not this selective memory crap.

You can see the request here.
https://forums.triplea-game.org/topic/474/total-game-report-option-for-statistical-purpose/10

The system isn’t perfect, as luck in some battles is more important than others, as well as attacking 1 inf with 100 of your own units, will show the luck those units had good or bad. But it’s a good, measurable talking point, to discuss the kind of luck handicaps out there, as opposed to just saying “I got diced” when maybe I didnt? or maybe my opponent really has been just as unlucky as I have!

So… lol… I ran the Hit-Handicap parser on our game file up to G11 Complete.

Axis are at +22.333 hits over statistical average
Allies are at -30.333 hits over statistical average

52 hit differential! Insane!

Now imagine we took 30 axis units of the board and added 22 allied ones; wow - what a difference that would make :) :) :)

Well played Farmboy, curious to see what the final HH will be when we complete. Will post when I can; hopefully later tonight.

farmboy

Interesting. That seems quite useful and I’d be interested in applying that to some of the games I’ve played so far. I’ve been especially lucky in this game, but on the whole I think I have been luckier than not in most of the league games I have played so far.

In the situation you game of a 100 units hitting 1, are you saying that it counts all the unnecessary hits too? (So if one hits 50 times but should only hit 30 it would appear that someone was +20). If so, is there a way to set it up so that if hits exceed casualties taken you multiply the hits/rolls ratio by the number of casualties taken? This is not my area at all but I thought that might be a way to get at that.

Gargantua

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.3

Game History

Round: 11

Purchase Units - Americans
Americans buy 2 artilleries, 2 bombers, 2 destroyers, 2 infantry, 2 submarines and 2 transports; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Combat Move - Americans
1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Caroline Islands to 30 Sea Zone
1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Caroline Islands to 31 Sea Zone
1 submarine moved from 26 Sea Zone to 30 Sea Zone
1 submarine moved from 26 Sea Zone to 31 Sea Zone
2 fighters moved from Hawaiian Islands to 25 Sea Zone
1 bomber moved from Western United States to 25 Sea Zone
1 destroyer moved from 10 Sea Zone to 25 Sea Zone
1 fighter moved from Caroline Islands to 30 Sea Zone
1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Gibraltar to 91 Sea Zone
1 infantry moved from Gibraltar to 91 Sea Zone
1 infantry moved from Morocco to 91 Sea Zone
1 artillery, 3 infantry and 2 transports moved from 91 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone
1 submarine moved from 91 Sea Zone to 105 Sea Zone
2 fighters moved from 110 Sea Zone to Normandy Bordeaux
1 artillery moved from 110 Sea Zone to Holland Belgium
1 infantry moved from 110 Sea Zone to Holland Belgium
2 infantry moved from 110 Sea Zone to Normandy Bordeaux
1 transport moved from 110 Sea Zone to 91 Sea Zone
1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Eastern United States to 101 Sea Zone
1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 101 Sea Zone to 91 Sea Zone

Combat - Americans
Battle in Normandy Bordeaux
Americans attack with 2 fighters and 2 infantry
Germans defend with 1 artillery, 1 factory_minor, 1 harbour and 1 infantry
Americans roll dice for 2 fighters and 2 infantry in Normandy Bordeaux, round 2 : 0/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Normandy Bordeaux, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
1 infantry owned by the Americans lost in Normandy Bordeaux
Americans roll dice for 2 fighters and 1 infantry in Normandy Bordeaux, round 3 : 2/3 hits, 1.17 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Normandy Bordeaux, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
1 artillery owned by the Germans and 1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Normandy Bordeaux
Americans win, taking Normandy Bordeaux from Germans with 2 fighters and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 4
Casualties for Germans: 1 artillery and 1 infantry
Casualties for Americans: 1 infantry
Battle in Holland Belgium
Americans attack with 1 artillery and 1 infantry
Germans defend with 1 mech_infantry
Americans roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Holland Belgium, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 mech_infantry in Holland Belgium, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
1 mech_infantry owned by the Germans lost in Holland Belgium
Americans win, taking Holland Belgium from Germans with 1 artillery and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 4
Casualties for Germans: 1 mech_infantry
Battle in 31 Sea Zone
Americans attack with 1 fighter, 1 submarine and 1 tactical_bomber
Japanese defend with 1 destroyer
Americans roll dice for 1 submarine in 31 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
Americans roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber in 31 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 1.17 expected hits
Japanese roll dice for 1 destroyer in 31 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
1 submarine owned by the Americans lost in 31 Sea Zone
Americans roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber in 31 Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/2 hits, 1.17 expected hits
Japanese roll dice for 1 destroyer in 31 Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
1 destroyer owned by the Japanese lost in 31 Sea Zone
Americans win with 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 2
Casualties for Americans: 1 submarine
Casualties for Japanese: 1 destroyer
Battle in 30 Sea Zone
Americans attack with 2 fighters, 1 submarine and 1 tactical_bomber
Japanese defend with 1 destroyer
Americans roll dice for 1 submarine in 30 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
Americans roll dice for 2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber in 30 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1.67 expected hits
Japanese roll dice for 1 destroyer in 30 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
1 destroyer owned by the Japanese lost in 30 Sea Zone
Americans win with 2 fighters, 1 submarine and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
Casualties for Japanese: 1 destroyer
Battle in 25 Sea Zone
Americans attack with 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 2 fighters
Japanese defend with 1 destroyer
Americans roll dice for 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 2 fighters in 25 Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/4 hits, 2.00 expected hits
Japanese roll dice for 1 destroyer in 25 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
1 destroyer owned by the Japanese and 1 fighter owned by the Americans lost in 25 Sea Zone
Americans win with 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is -2
Casualties for Americans: 1 fighter
Casualties for Japanese: 1 destroyer

Non Combat Move - Americans
1 bomber moved from 25 Sea Zone to Hawaiian Islands
1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from Hawaiian Islands to 26 Sea Zone
1 marine moved from Hawaiian Islands to 26 Sea Zone
1 transport moved from 26 Sea Zone to 31 Sea Zone
1 mech_infantry moved from Wake Island to 31 Sea Zone
1 mech_infantry and 1 transport moved from 31 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 31 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
1 mech_infantry moved from 33 Sea Zone to Caroline Islands
2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 30 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
1 fighter moved from 25 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
3 fighters moved from Western United States to Hawaiian Islands
1 battleship, 4 carriers, 2 cruisers, 1 destroyer, 1 infantry, 1 marine, 1 mech_infantry and 1 transport moved from 26 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
1 infantry, 1 marine and 1 mech_infantry moved from 33 Sea Zone to Caroline Islands
2 infantry moved from Western United States to 10 Sea Zone
2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 10 Sea Zone to 26 Sea Zone
2 infantry moved from 26 Sea Zone to Hawaiian Islands
2 carriers, 2 fighters and 1 transport moved from 79 Sea Zone to 76 Sea Zone
1 bomber moved from Persia to Egypt
1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 91 Sea Zone to Morocco
2 fighters moved from Normandy Bordeaux to 110 Sea Zone

Place Units - Americans
2 destroyers, 2 submarines and 1 transport placed in 10 Sea Zone
1 artillery, 2 bombers and 1 infantry placed in Western United States
1 transport placed in 101 Sea Zone
1 artillery and 1 infantry placed in Eastern United States

Turn Complete - Americans
Americans collect 57 PUs; end with 57 PUs
Trigger Americans 7 North Africa Beach Head: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 62 PUs
Trigger Americans 6 Western Europe Beach Head: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 67 PUs
Objective Americans 1 Homeland: Americans met a national objective for an additional 10 PUs; end with 77 PUs
Objective Americans 3 Defense Obligations: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 82 PUs
Objective Americans 2 Outer Territories: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 87 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans : -0.67
Americans : -2.83
Japanese : 0.67

triplea_41042_Ame11.tsvg

Gargantua

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.3

Game History

Round: 11

Purchase Units - Chinese
Trigger Chinese Loses Burma Road: Chinese has their production frontier changed to: productionChinese_Burma_Road_Closed
Chinese buy 3 infantry; Remaining resources: 2 PUs;

Combat Move - Chinese
1 infantry moved from Shensi to Szechwan
1 fighter moved from Suiyuyan to Szechwan

Combat - Chinese
Battle in Szechwan
Chinese attack with 1 fighter and 1 infantry
Japanese defend with 1 mech_infantry
Chinese roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 infantry in Szechwan, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
Japanese roll dice for 1 mech_infantry in Szechwan, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
1 mech_infantry owned by the Japanese and 1 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Szechwan
Chinese win with 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 1
Casualties for Chinese: 1 infantry
Casualties for Japanese: 1 mech_infantry

Non Combat Move - Chinese
1 fighter moved from Szechwan to Tsinghai

Place Units - Chinese
3 infantry placed in Tsinghai

Turn Complete - Chinese
Chinese collect 6 PUs; end with 8 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Chinese : 0.33
Japanese : 0.67

triplea_41042_Chi11.tsvg

Gargantua