Crazy George!

[Guest]

Russia can NOT have 6 INF in Manchuria on J1.  It is impossible.

And again, I remind you that, seeing KJF, Japan made their J1 purchase accordingly.

[Jennifer]

You know what I meant, Buryatia.  On the border of Manchuria.  Sheesh.  Way to be nit picky.

Fact is, no matter what Japan buys, if you attack SZ 30 and SZ 52 in one round (assuming British fleet unification in SZ 30) then Japan has reduced itself by no less then 4 fighters, transport and probably a carrier as well.

America will further reduce that by another submarine, destroyer and battleship.

That leaves Japan with 2 Fighters, Transport, Battleship, Carrier + 30 IPC of equipment from purchases.  That leaves nothing to transport troops to the mainland, if you are going full navy to stop America from steamrolling you.  That means the IC in Sinkiang and India are safe and it’s only a matter of time before you are pushed out entirely and without those 9 IPC, you’ll be earning 21 IPC which is 50% what America is earning and you have no navy to stop America anyway.

You can’t invade China because Russia will walk in your back door as will England.  That forces you back into the offensive and you won’t have enough to take Sinkiang anyway since Russia’s fighters will be sitting there for at least one turn.  You can’t ignore the American fleet because it’s already at 2 carriers, 4 fighters, destroyer, transport and Battleship at the completion of the PURCHASE UNITS PHASE of USA 1.  And that’s not including the bomber, destroyer and 2 transports from the East that can come join the party if needed.

Face it, against a determined allied player, Japan has no chance to survive.  It can only turtle, hope for good dice, and pray that Germany can take out Russia before Japan is wiped off the board.

[trihero]

As for Germany, they can go full bore against Russia, and should.  But Russia’s not solo by any means.  There’s a trickle of Americans coming in (2 transports at least, resulting in 2 units a round, maybe more.) And at least 6 British if not 8 British a round.  Yes, it’s a mixed force, but it’s on defense and can use each other to punch holes in Germany’s defense and exploit them with another nation’s tanks.  Germany/Japan don’t have that ability yet.

If the Americans choose to use their initial 2 tran in the Atlantic, that makes the burden on Japan easier. That’s 16 IPCs + 6 more per turn down compared to if they used it in the Pacific.

Thing is, KJF is a lot easier if the person engaging the KJF knows what s/he’s doing because hardly anyone ever has to defend against it

I don’t know why you have this notion that KJF is novel. It was old 2 years ago, in fact KJF was the first major strategy employed at GenCon.

If you don’t believe me you and I can go a game KJF low luck, bid 7 for the axis

Hmm sounds good, I’ll take a raincheck since I promised Gamer a game first, and I need to take it slow at this point with just one game at a time.

I say Low Luck cause I don’t want to hear from myself or you, crying when 25 defending tanks get killed by 3 attacking infantry and a bomber. :P

Sure I don’t mind Low Luck. Of course it won’t count as a ranking/League game, but I agree it’ll be a better diagnostic for the overall gist of the strategy.

[U-505]

Oh, I see now, Commander. You refuse my offer to play, but you are willing to give Bean the same Low Luck conditions, a better bid, AND not even ask for him to telegraph his Axis openings to even the game out.

I actually feel honored that you didn’t want to risk your strategy against me yet you were ready to give Bean much more favorable conditions.

But, I am obligated to inform you that Bean is actually the phoenix risen from the ashes of Trihero, who, at the time of my joining this board, was probably the best player here. And I can also tell from his recent posts that he hasn’t lost a step. If anything, his game is more refined. You should consider yourself lucky that he didn’t accept your challenge. Offering such favorable terms was, in my opinion, a greivous error on your part and you definitely dodged a bullet there.

[U-505]

@Cmdr:

You know what I meant, Buryatia.  On the border of Manchuria.  Sheesh.  Way to be nit picky.

Fact is, no matter what Japan buys, if you attack SZ 30 and SZ 52 in one round (assuming British fleet unification in SZ 30) then Japan has reduced itself by no less then 4 fighters, transport and probably a carrier as well.

America will further reduce that by another submarine, destroyer and battleship.

That leaves Japan with 2 Fighters, Transport, Battleship, Carrier + 30 IPC of equipment from purchases.  That leaves nothing to transport troops to the mainland, if you are going full navy to stop America from steamrolling you.  That means the IC in Sinkiang and India are safe and it’s only a matter of time before you are pushed out entirely and without those 9 IPC, you’ll be earning 21 IPC which is 50% what America is earning and you have no navy to stop America anyway.

You can’t invade China because Russia will walk in your back door as will England.  That forces you back into the offensive and you won’t have enough to take Sinkiang anyway since Russia’s fighters will be sitting there for at least one turn.  You can’t ignore the American fleet because it’s already at 2 carriers, 4 fighters, destroyer, transport and Battleship at the completion of the PURCHASE UNITS PHASE of USA 1.  And that’s not including the bomber, destroyer and 2 transports from the East that can come join the party if needed.

Face it, against a determined allied player, Japan has no chance to survive.  It can only turtle, hope for good dice, and pray that Germany can take out Russia before Japan is wiped off the board.

First of all, while Russia has the most numerous units on it’s front, it’s position is, by far the most untenable. Infantry reinforcements take 3 turns to arrive and, against a focused Germany, Russia is going to be severely lacking in available offensive support to shift toward Japan. Russia may get manchuria for a turn, but they won’t hold it, and any Russian units you leave lingering on the coast are going to be crushed. You said it yourself that the Allies are smaller and more spread out than Japan in Asia which makes if much easier for Japan to consolidate their forces into a centralized defensive position and then isolate and destroy individual fronts one at a time.

And Japan does not HAVE to attack the UK fleet in sz30. More to the point, it shouldn’t under almost any circumstances. Japan’s priority in this case is to preserve every last naval unit it has and use them to prevent the Allied fleets from linking up. In a KJF, Japan’s primary job with their fleet is interdiction of the Allied fleets and should only be used for attack when they can be guaranteed a swift and decisive victory that doesn’t leave them completely unprotected elsewhere. Japan doesn’t have to go after the UK fleet to minimize their usefulness. The UK will come to them and they may get an island or 2, but, if Japan is played properly, they will do so only at the terms that Japan dictates and will most likely be the last moves that those UK naval units ever make.

You seem to subscribe to the theory that minimal investment by the US/UK can derail Germany’s plans to take Russia when it is the exact opposite. With a small naval or aircraft investment every turn by Germany, they can prevent the other Allies from interfering in Europe or Africa while at the same time being able to outspend Russia every turn.

[axis_roll]

@U-505:

You seem to subscribe to the theory that minimal investment by the US/UK can derail Germany’s plans to take Russia when it is the exact opposite. With a small naval or aircraft investment every turn by Germany, they can prevent the other Allies from interfering in Europe or Africa while at the same time being able to outspend Russia every turn.

The last part of your statement is key.  IMHO, Germany CAN force UK into not being able to a execute a KJF with a naval purchase G1.  You also could do as you say and make turn by turn investments to do the same.

Jennifer seems to think that Germany can do nothing to stop a KJF, and inf and tanks only will beat the KJF allied game plan by taking out russia as fast as possible.  In this game, defending is the safest and easiest option, and a competent allied player can garnish enough UK ground help to keep russia in the game long enough against a ground only Germany attack on Russia.

[Guest]

I have played games where Japan lost all of their Asian territory early in the game.  They got them all back very quickly. and wiped out the Russian presence in Asia in the process.

A few notes regarding Jen’s hypothetical moves as they would play out against me:
1.  It leaves the US with only their US1 build units in the Pacific, with the entire USA Pacific Fleet, and UK Pacific and Indian Fleets as “fish condos”
2.  It leaves Japan with a small, but capital ship anchored, navy
3.  It leaves only 1 FIG (China) to threaten Japan’s TRNs and DST that are built on J1.
4.  Russia is unable to get forces to Asia in a timely fashion due to distance and German pressure
5.  UK is going to be weak economically due to loss of Africa.  No Egypt Counter with the SZ30 fleet move means UK will be down up to $8 in Africa for UK2:  Egypt, FEA, FWA, BC, IEA, Rhodesia, T-J

Also, on the J1 attacks:
SZ30: 
UK:  2 TRN, 1 SUB, 1 DST, 1 AC, 1 FIG
Japan:  1 BB, 1 AC, 4 FIGs
74.4% Japan win with an average of 3 units (AC, BB, FIG) remaining
No need to move the SZ50 AC to recover FIGs
Also, even if this battle goes poorly for Japan, the worst case scenario is that UK has a nearly useless AC, with perhaps a FIG left on it.  There is only a 1% chance of UK still having a TRN left to threaten the islands.  And if the battle goes very poorly for Japan, you just turn it into a strafe after killing the TRNs.

SZ52:
US:  1 SUB, 1 AC, 1 FIG
Japan:  1 TRN, 1 SUB, 1 DST, 1 BB, 1 BOM
99% Japan win with average of 1 SUB, 1 DST, 1 BB, 1 BOM remaining

NCM AC from SZ50, 1 FIG from Japan, 1 FIG Manch to SZ52
Consolidate Japan forces in Manch (5 INF) and picket Kwang and FIC using FIC INF
TRN (from SZ59) 1 ARM, 1 AA Japan to Manch (secures Manch and makes the US FIG risk AA to attack the SZ61 fleet)

USA will now have to counter-attack:
Japan Forces:  1 SUB, 1 DST, 1 BB, 1 AC, 2 FIG
USA Forces:  1 TRN, 1 BB, 2 FIG, 1 BOM
Japan wins 85% of the time with an average of 3 units (AC, BB, FIG) remaining

1.  Pacific and Indian Oceans are devoid of Allied ships
2.  USA has lost almost their entire air force (1 FIG China, 1 FIG in EUS left)
3.  Japan still has most of their capital ships (at least 1 AC, 1 BB , possibly 2 of each), plus 1 TRN from SZ59, and whatever they built on J1

That is hardly Japan “without fleet”  :roll:

But it IS the Allies without Fleet anywhere in the Pacific or Indian Oceans.

So what is UK going to contribute to a KJF in this situation?  An IC in India that they cannot afford to build at since it would leav them with only $12 to use against Germany?  :roll:

[Jennifer]

Switch,

I don’t know where you are getting your numbers from but if Japan attacks SZ 30 with 4 Fighters, Battleship, Carrier against 2 Transports, Submarine, Destroyer, Fighter, Carrier, FROOD is telling me that it’s a 3 round battle, 72% chance Japan wins and that win is a solitary fighter and a solitary battleship remaining.  Not Battleship, Carrier and Fighter.  Oh, and by the way, if you want to do the SZ 50 carrier to SZ 52 to bolster your fleet, you’ll have to lose the fighter meaning you might actually be down to just a battleship in SZ 30 since a fighter attacks a LOT better then a carrier!

And if Japan hits SZ 52 with Transport, Submarine, Destroyer, Battleship and Bomber against the defending Submarine, Carrier, Fighter you are 70% likely to only lose a transport, but still very likely to lose a submarine AND a transport in the engagement, making the trade very beneficial to America.

Meanwhile, you still have 6 Infantry in Sinkiang, 5 Infantry, IC, AA in India and 6 Infantry in Buryatia at the end of Japan 1. (Assuming you kill China and the fighter located there.)

America, on the other hand, is only dedicating a mere 6 to 8 IPC reinforcing Europe/Asia if it goes that route and more then capable of out spending Japan, and doing so QUICKLY!

And of course, if Japan DOES reinforce SZ 52, which it may do since, in your outline it does NOT attack China and thus does NOT collect more then 30 IPC in Round 1 and thus does NOT lose the ability to move it’s fighter to SZ 52, then America does NOT have to attack it.  Why should it?  You have 2 Battleships, 1 Carrier and a Destroyer left.  67% of your fighters were shot down in SZ 30, leaving 2 behind.

America then faces you with Destroyer, Transport, Battleship, 2 Aircraft Carriers, 4 Fighters, Bomber in SZ 55/W. USA (and can retrieve the infantry from Midway for an added 3 IPC bonus.) A force Japan cannot possibly contend with and would force Japan into full scale retreat from Hawaii, even with your battleship and carrier present.

And the AA Gun is a cute idea, in Manchuria.  But Russia’s still going to hit it with 6 infantry, 2 fighters and get a free gun.  + America’s still going to risk it to sink your only transport and make you an island locked nation ending forever your threat in Asia.

Once your threat is ended, England and America can finish off your mainland forces allowing Russia 100% access to Germany.  Add to the trickle of forces from America landing in Northern Asia + the lion share of England’s forces in Northern Asia, Germany is going to be pretty much contianed in Europe.  Sure, the allies wont be able to knock down your big stack offensively, but they don’t have too.  They just have to stop you from pushing Russia down, and they can do that defensively.

[Guest]

Try reading my post before you respond.

Use the red line from Frood, which shows 3 units surviving on average in SZ30.  But hey, even a lone BB is fine with me, my goal is only to destroy the UK fleet, which was accomplished.  The surviving BB is a bonus.  Also, I am NOT going to splash a surviving FIG, I will keep the AC thank you very much.

We agree on the SZ50 result… 70% likely to have the forces I listed in my post.

OK, USSR attacks Manch with 6 INF, 2 FIGs against 5 INF, 1 ARM, 1 AA.

Setting the sim to have at least 1 unit left to secure the gun (as you state you would do), you have only a 59.2% chance to take… and you lose 1 of the 2 Russian FIGs in the process (a hell of a good trade for the Axis!)

Lastly, you missed my J1 purchase…
1 DST, 2 TRN
Giving me a force of 3 TRN, 1 DST in SZ61.

Go ahead, waste your USA FIG on that fleet even with the lost AA gun in Manch.  50/50 that you get a TRN worth $8 and you lose your FIG worth $10.

I still will have, come J2…
2 TRN (more than enough to liberate Manch)
2 BB
1 AC
1-2 FIGs
1 BOM
2 INF in Asia

I am slowing down that KJF of yours…
I still have ALL of my islands.
I still have territory in Asia
I have a partial TRN fleet (full TRN fleet after J2 purchase)
I have 4 Capital Ships (2 BB, 1 DST, 1 AC)
Allies are still missing in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
Russia is missing a FIG, and did not get to use FIGs for trading territories with Germany on R2, meaning Germany is making nice gains on Russia (or that Russia failed to trade territories on R2 reducing their income significantly…)

Please tell me where the downside is for the Axis :?

[Jennifer]

I didn’t see a japan purchase.

Anyway, there’s no rule that the allies HAVE to attack you.  But if you suicide your main battle fleet against the british, so what?  England’s not out anything they other wise wouldnt with the standard submarine transport to SZ 45, Destroyer, Carrier to SZ 59.  Actually, they netted 4 fighters from Japan that otherwise would never have been lost!

And the rest of Japan’s mighty and valiant air force is in Hawaii looking at an empty harbor where America used to be while Germany, over extending itself thinking it was KJF is now getting spanked.

India’s still going to be a pain to take and Sinkiang is only going to add to that pain.  Meanwhile, Japan will spend the entire game looking over its shoulder for the American invasion it expects.  (Probably on Round 3 or 4 instead of Round 1, since Japan so obligingly threw away its air force and most of it’s navy reducing itself, voluntarily, to 1 carrier, 2 battleships, 2 destroyers and 3 transports with a possible extra submarine.)

[Guest]

Fine by me.

But your KJF is null and void.

And UK has built me an IC in India (before J1), that will become mine in short order.

So, UK can continue to sink $9+ per turn into India (leaving about $12 to use on Germany) or they can just surrender the IC to Japan.  Just a matter of how quickly Japan can take that IC.

USA aborted the Sinkiang IC (or perhaps not with China surviving J1…)

But Germany is still going to be +$8 in Africa
Russia is still going to be lacking FIGs for use on R2, and a FIG permanently after attacking Manchuria
And since you are not a fan of a Ukraine attack on R1, Germany is going to be building in Caucuses since you are pulling out your FIGs for use in Manchuria.

All in all, I call that a massive Axis gain…
The Allies started KJF, and prior to the end of turn 1 had to abort and switch to KGF, giving Germany time to grow to $50+ income.

THANK YOU ALLIES!
:mrgreen:

[Jennifer]

Or Japan can get bottled up at India while UK puts 9 IPC into it and still has 20+ against Germany and America can sink 6 IPC into Sinkiang a round bottling you more and, just as soon as you think KJF was never really intended, a large American fleet moves back into the Pacific putting you in a very tight spot.

Any ICs you build will be happily used by the Allies when you are off the mainland though.  Since you have no fleet and no army, there’s really nothing to stop them.

And, once you are gone, the India IC can begin reinforcing Caucasus directly instead of walking the long, tedious route.

So KJF is neither null and void, nor is it averted.  You have to keep putting out warships since you have none left, you have no fighters left (really) to trade territories, you’re bottled up tight in your three little territories, which wont last becuase you’ll be losing FIC regularly to the British, it’s the most secure way to prevent India from falling.

[Guest]

I love how you post Jen… ignoring the obvious…

Japan DOES have a fleet… a fleet of at least 2 BB, 1 AC, 1 DST, plus TRNs.  $76 worth of capital ships plus TRNs and FIGs…

No Japan Army?  I liberate Manch on J2 w/ 4 divisions.  The following turn I drop 8 divisions into Asia.  Russia is sending 0 divisions to Asia (after losing their starting 6 INF and a FIG), and UK and USA are sending 5 total per turn… odds favor Japan by 8 to 5.

OK, so UK keeps build 3 units (INF) in India per turn.  That is $9 of their dwindling cash flow, leaving only $12 per turn for London (4 INF per turn).  So much for UK helping with the Germans, especially if I wipe out your fleet using SZ5 forces and AF just ONCE…

And USA gears up for KGF… they need to spend $40 just to get up to speed on TRNs (a full build), which gets the USA up to 8 units per turn against Germany.  Meanwhile Germany is building somewhere around 16 units per turn…

Are you seeing the problem here yet?

You let Germany out of the box with your Turn 1 moves, and you failed to contain Japan at the same time.  Japan just keeps trading, and Germany just keeps growing.

Game Axis.

[Jennifer]

You keep missing the obvious yourself.

You have 7 Infantry at start on the Asian Continent.

You may or may not use them.  Most people would use them to kill the American fighter resulting in only 4 or 5 remaining.

You have 2 Battleships and a Carrier in your fantasy of the results.  You could easily only have 1 battleship after SZ 30 goes bad or less if SZ 30 and SZ 52 go bad, which can EASILY happen, if not a statistical probability.

America has 56 IPC in capitol ships, GUARANTEED.  More if their carrier lives in SZ 52, again a stastical improbability, but not unheard of.

USA/UK are putting 5 ground units a round into the Continent.  You are putting 6.  5 can defend against 6 much easier then 6 can attack 5.  Especially when you have no fighters.

Russia’s putting 1 or 2 in for a short while, just until the ICs are protected, say Round 3, then they can phase them out.  Again, if Manchuria is too strong, then they don’t attack it, they don’t have too.  They only have to keep Japan from spreading, which they are doing just fine in Buryatia since you have no fighters to hit them with!

Of course, Japan maybe buys fighters on J2 and 3, meaning they have NOTHING to transport in land forces giving the allies even a STRONGER foot hold.  Which means on USA 3 when America has 5 Submarines, 2 Transports, 2 Destroyers, Battleship, 2 Aircraft Carriers and 4 Fighters in the Pacific Japan’s got enough fire power to at least match them, but they are only collecting 21 IPC vs America’s 42 IPC from that point. (36 IPC after you deduct for the 2 infantry a round I am sending to Asia to annoy Germany.)

[Guest]

I am done debating your fantasy world Jen.

If you want to base your strats on low probability results, feel free…

That MIGHT explain why you are winless against me  :evil:

[trihero]

Interesting discussion, makes me think. I don’t know if I’d throw the kitchen sink at a SZ30 link because it uses up a lot of fighters, but on the other hand it does secure the oceans for a couple rounds.

[DarthMaximus]

I like to unify my UK fleet in Sz 30.  There is a good enough chance Japan only comes out with 2 units left (bb, ac), and that leaves them 3 moves away from sz 60.

If I can take out 3-4 J ftrs I’ll do it.  Now if UK rolls slightly up on the first rd of battle (3 hits instead of 2), then Japan is looking at a potential disaster.

I’m not really a big fan of the alternatives for the UK, since Japan has 2 BB’s they can essentially pick you apart for no losses or the UK ships just run away anyway.  For example the DD to sz 59 can be counter with no loss, the sub/ftr to sol sz maybe costs you 1 more unit at Pearl, but the sub can be countered with air, so that is no risk and the UK AC runs away.  So UK kills a trn + 1 more unit at pearl.  But the SZ 30 move kills 3-4 ftrs, and has the potential to kill an AC/BB.

Also the US doesn’t have to counter Pearl if Japan gets lucky there, but if you are going in lite with 1 trn, 1 sub, 1 dd, 1 bb, 1 bom you may take 3 hits over two rds of battle since there is no guarantee you get 3 on Off in 1 rd.

Depending on the Pearl results and Non-Coms the US can:
Counter Pearl
Strafe then retreat/continue depending on rd 1 dice or how Japan chooses their losses
Stand pat and drop a naval buy in Sz 55.
Do nothing and go after Germany

The US (naval buy) can end up with something like:

1 trn, 1 dd, 2 ac, 4 ftrs, 1 bb

And immediately equal Japan in terms of Naval power and possibly outclass them.  Certaily after Rd 2 with the US having another 42 compared to ~30 for Japan, the US will out class them.

That being said you can limit the US’s aggressiveness if Germany took Gib and dropped and AC or trn(s) in Sz 5.  In this case the UK will probably need the US help to contain Germany so Japan may have a bit more freedom.

But I still don’t think I’d risk losing 4 ftrs for the UK fleet down in Sz 30.  I prefer to use them for my early land offensive since you only have 1 arm to start.

[Jennifer]

Thanks, DM.  That’s what I’ve been trying to say.  None of the KJF moves in Round 1 lock the Allies into KJF.  However, all the proposed responses to KJF by Japan does hurt them if KJF is called off, and, I don’t think they are terribly good moves even if KJF is on.

3 Rounds to get the BB and CV from SZ 30 to SZ 60 where they’ll be useful against America.  That’s 3 rounds of 40 IPC in fleet or 120 IPC, potentially.

And about those numbers, how many times have you gone into battle with overwhelming force only to get your butt handed to you by amazing defense in the first round of battle?  Problem when looking into a vacuum is that there’s still a 1 in 6 chance that every time  you attack a defending transport with a plane you will lose your plane.

SZ 30 could look REALLY bad for Japan after round 1.  There’s a lot of strong defensive pieces and some fodder for England.  There’s no fodder for Japan (BB doesn’t really count as fodder, it’s more of a sponge) and a lot of pieces, IMHO, Japan really needs!

And if building an IC for Japan in India convinces Japan to throw their air force and navy away, either through destruction or by placing it out of strategic locations, then it’s well worth it.

And if Japan plays conservatively trying to buy Germany time, the way I would recommend it go, then it may pay off for you in the long run.  After all, why hit SZ 30 now???  Why not hit Pearl light, consolidate, take out China, set up a major counter strike on Manchuria (or better take Buryatia, since you have the firepower right now) and get an IC up in Kwangtung where it’s pretty safe for at least a couple rounds.  Your conservative play may convince the Allies to go with the more traditional KGF.

And if the Allies do go KJF after that conservative play.  You can always use your consolidated fleet to sink the British at a time more convenient to you, reducing your costs to only a submarine or two, instead of 4 fighters with the potential of a carrier and a battleship on top of it.

Sure, I’ve played 2 honest games with Switch, and he’s won both.  Neither were KJF.  There is a 3rd battle that he wanted called off after the disastrous results of Russia 1’s attacks, I agreed.  He likes to count that as a win, I don’t.  If I had asked to have it called off, it might have been a different story.

And Switch is pretty good at defending Germany against the Allies.  Another reason I’d lean towards hitting him with KJF.  He plays a little loose with his assets in my opinion.  He’s thrown the entire luftwaffe away trying to kill my infantry in Libya before.  So for him to throw away his Zeros to sink a couple transports in SZ 30 is no surprise to me.  Would I recommend the average player who likes to have an air force do it?  No.  I, honestly, am not comfortable with less then 10 fighters on the board, 12 is better.  (4 US, 4 UK, 4 USSR for example, not necessarily 10 for America, 10 for England, etc…)  I also don’t like to needlessly endanger my capitols.  They’re bloody expensive!  Especially for the axis, but also for the allies.

The Carrier in SZ 52 is an expected loss.  So having it or not never really comes into play.  However, the potential to sink 2 or 3 of Japan’s 4 warships in round 1 is an unexpected boon and should be taken up, even if you don’t plan to kill japan first!  Those warships can be quite annoying when you want to liberate Africa!  And if Japan does face a KJF, they’ll have to rebuild them anyway.

[Guest]

First off,
The SZ30 ships are only 2 moves from action against the US…
1 move to SZ46, the second to SZ52.

Second…
Jen, you surrendered every single game you played against me, including the one where dice made you surrender in Turn 2.  Your revisionist history does not fly here.  Saying that you have lost a game and asking for a new game form the start is still a loss.

Third:
Yes, the dice COULD go very badly for Japan.  They could also go very badly for the Allies and Japan come out of that fight with a loaded AC and BB.

Fourth:
You are the one who spoke of UK taking 4 island groups in 3 turns.  I was simply pointing out that such was not a guarantee, nor is it even a probability.

Again… if you wish to base your strats on low probabilities, be my guest.  I will continue to rack up wins against you (as will most others here) so long as you continue to do so.

[Jennifer]

3 Turns from action against the US:

1 SZ 30 to SZ 47
1 SZ 47 to SZ 52
1 SZ 52 to US Fleet in SZ 55

Second, you offered after you saw how bad the dice were.  I didn’t ask.  You just wanted to negate the game.  Stop trying to be a revisionist yourself.  And yes, I surrendered the other two, I was an idiot and went KGF against you, instead of KJF.  If it were KJF you may have lost.

Third:  It’s very probable that England will get 2 or 3 island groups in a normal KJF game since most players are not going to want to risk 4 fighters and a carrier to sink them when they can wait and sink them later.  Especially considering they will have to dedicate their entire purchase to fleet with your option (2 transports + destroyer = 28 IPC, out of 30, leaves nothing for ground forces) and the high probability of losing something else of import at Hawaii or, at the very least, having the last bit of your air force tied up defending your fleet there, who will suddenly be out matched, out gunned and out numbered by America’s purchase.

I’m not basing anything on LOW probabilities.  I’m just not assuming I’ll get the average result.  I like to be a little more flexible and assume the enemy is going to score 20% higher then average on their defense and I’ll score 20% low on my offense.  It usually seems to work out that way when I really need the battle to go my way, so I may as well assume it.

I, also don’t spend the money twice on purchases, or use my assets in two different battles in the same round like some people.