Well, part of your problem is you seem to be assuming a KJF on Russia 1. KJF cannot really be assumed until UK 1 since nothing Russia does would change in either KGF or KJF.
However, I think if the allies let you get 9 IPC and you put it all in Europe, they might just decide to crush Germany since now they don’t have to worry so much about protecting Africa. That means England’s +9 IPC and Germany’s down 11 IPC they would otherwise have. (9 for Africa they take + 1 Algeria +1 Libya.) Actually, they’re also down Norway most likely so down another 3 for that and W. Russia would be a wash with Karelia.
40 - 5 = 35 to face against Russia earning 23-26 and England earning 30-33 and America it just makes KGF so simple there’s no point in going for the KJF.
If Germany, on the other hand, had +3 Infantry in Africa making the liberation of Egypt impossible, then an IC in India round 1 and going for the KJF almost seems like a watson moment "Elementary my dear Watson, elementary.)
People like to say that Japan can easily swat the British and the Americans. Look at their fleet. Okay. I’m looking, I’m not terribly impressed!
Of Japan’s forces, only 17 out of 22 Infantry/Armor/Artillery are in reasonable range of hitting Asia. The other 5 would require fleet investment to retreive, investment Japan can hardly afford against a determined KJF strategy.
Of the 17 in range, only 7 are actually on the front lines.
Fleet wise Japan is pretty well off, especially if Pearl goes well. But with a massed British fleet in SZ 30 and the Americans massing in SZ 55, that’s not going to last forever.
Now, Japan can get a quick boost to defensive power by building a carrier and landing all 6 fighters at sea. Assuming none were lost in engagements. But that’s their last quick boost. And, as they will be facing an IC in Sinkiang and India (and later in China) it’s safe to assume they’ll be reduced to 21 IPC income really fast (Turn 3, maybe Turn 4.) America will be at 45 IPC and England down at 20-24 depending on how things play out.
Russia, of course, will be in the upper 20’s throughout now since they will have no need to protect their eastern flanks.
What does Japan do? They can cower in SZ 60/61 and hope to land enough troops to distract the allies until Russia falls. They can advance and try to protect their major island investments but pull their transports away from SZ 60 so they can be used as fodder to stop the allies from unification. They can try all of the above. But none of that will really help in the long run. By turn 7 or 8, even with the best Japanese strategy, Japan will crumble navally and be reduced to an island worth 8 IPC.
Okay, so they have 8 IPC a round and can get 2 or 3 infantry. Who cares? The American and British (if it lives) fleets will be surrounding it while all three nations shift focus on Germany. Yes, Germany literally dies first, but Japan has been reduced to a waking coma, as good as dead, if not legally dead yet.
How does Japan survive? Luck and lots of it! They’re going to have to hope they can inflict serious damage to the combined fleets (because you know they will be forced to attack, America doesn’t care if Hawaii or Alaska is taken, why should they? They have Kwangtung, Manchuria, E. Indies, and/or some other assets) so attacking the Japanese fleet, at least for a long time, is not their job. Their job is to trade islands and position the Japanese into compromising situations.
