@Arthur:
I don’t see that the Bal Mod changes to SBR is too much of a game-changer. Both sides do bombing raids so the modifications work both ways. Add in that most attacks against Moscow are happening on G4+, and it doesn’t have nearly as much impact as additional units to swing key battles during the first round. An extra 20 PUs of bid results in an additional 20+ PU swing in net battle casualties, leading to a 40+ swing of units in key areas, leading to 60+ swing of units by the fifth turn. A bombing raids just have a slight positive outcome when you throw in chance that the planes are shot down and that your units are out of position to do other actions for a round or two.
Personally I don’t do too many SBR as Germany because my goal is to head to the Middle East, avoiding a Moscow attack until G10+ in most games. If the Allies are going heavy in the Atlantic, I spend 10 PUs per round to reinforce France with three ground units and another 7 PUs per round to reinforce Scandinavia with a couple of ground units. That limits the ability to overwhelm the Eastern front. I can patiently win the game with an economic victory by having the combined Japan+Germany income exceed that of the Allies. The ability to project power with the bomber force makes the advantage enormous, especially in a TripleA match where I can battlecalc every option every round. One mistake and an Allied force will get pulverized.
I can’t say I like the part about not bombing Moscow. Surely the less infantry they can afford, the better for Germany.
OOB, if Germany attacks Moscow with 3 bombers and 2 escorts vs 5 potential interceptors, the air battle is a wash (ignoring the possibility of enough hits by the defender to take down a bomber). In BM, it’s enough to make the attack minimal expected value for Germany. There are also cases where the air battle can be underpowered but the SBR is still worthwhile in G40/OOB. That last case is relatively rare in BM.