Bean is right. The Attacker can win even if it is outnumbered in punch provided the attacker has more total units. But even if it is a much closer battle at this point it is good for Germany to kill the Russians since they should still maintain an IPC lead of 40+ to 25ish, since the Allies are helping in Asia. Geramny should still have some Afr income coming in as well as its Med fleet.
@Cmdr:
Yes, but can 8 infantry push back American and British units? Say America has China, Sinkiang and FIC with ICs and are making 7 units a turn there. (4 inf, art, 2 arm for argument’s sake) and England has 2 inf, 1 arm going into India. Can Japan’s 8 infantry push all that back and hold them back?
Yes.
US should not have an IC on Chi. There are 2 must attacks on J1, China and Pearl. Even if Fic was taken by the UK, Japan can ignore it. 5 inf + planes to Chi, tons o’ ships to Pearl and as a bonus attack with the EI fleet as it cleans up Sz 59 or any loose UK ships floating around.
Chi should be fairly safe from counter attack on round 2 unless Russia brings in armor/ftrs (very good for Germany). Sin is a different story but those new units can’t attack until Rd 3. By that time Japan has 4-5 trns and plenty of inf, to force the issue North.
I really don’t care if the Allies want to trade Fic/Kwa/Man in rd 2, I’ll have 2 BB’s and 5-7 planes. Russia won’t be able to hold 6 inf in Bury/Man/Yak for very long, plus without ftr support in Bury in Rd 2, chances are Russia loses its stack there when Japan attacks with 2 BB shots, 6-8 units and planes.
I’ll kill the Russian troops before I worry about Fic, if they wisely fall back to Yak, then Japan has its foothold in Bury and that protects Man and essentially puts it out of reach for the Allies for the early part of the game.
Now, the Allies should not be able to safely drop an IC on FIC for quite sometime. Even if UK holds it after J1, I can’t see anyway they place an IC on Fic after putting one on Ind on UK 1. They will not have enough troops yet to defend the Fic IC and Japan can take it. Japan will certainly have the ability to trade Fic on J2, which means the Allies won’t have another opportunity to put an IC there until Rd 4. I can’t see how the US would be able to take back Fic on US 2 so that leaves UK 3 or US 3. I’m not buying it, not without a full fledge KJF and US Pac build up as well.
What all of this means is Japan can essentially go about its business as normal for the first 3-4 turns. Yes, it might cost you some early IPC in rd 1-2 but as long as you collect over 24 you can still do normal Japan buys and get plenty of troops to Asia. I don’t think the Allies can hold Fic or Kwa as long as Japan has its full navy.
I think a better quesiton might be, could the Allies mixed force push back the 8 Japanese inf?
Mixed forces are great on Def, but on Off they are very weak, so once Japan lands it is not that easy to trade with them, esp since Japan has 2 BBs and a far superior airforce.
Now if the US goes Pac strat and it is a KJF, okay then the Allies can do some real damage, but my impression was we were mainly talking about an annoying Japan strat and some pesky UK 1 attacks.
My point is if you aren’t going to follow-up your UK 1 attacks with anything (read KJF), then what is the point?
On its own I don’t think it is that much of delay to Japan and those units could be better served fortifying Per/Cauc/Kaz for use against the Germans or Japanese as needed.
I just don’t like throwing away early units as the Allies esp when it is so tough to get reinforcements there.
Edit:
I agree with U-505.