First off Jen, thanks for the compliment on my skill level.
Now, on to your analysis.
OK, let’s grant a 10 round game.
You lose a TRN before J1 worth 8 IPC’s.
TRN’s are something that Japan HAS to have in order to play the game.
A UK navy in the Pacific is optional to the UK strategy in many cases (at least in many KGF).
That TRN, if it lives, would be used every single round by Japan. $80 IPC’s of use over the course of the game (considering its value over 10 rounds).
The value actually is higher than that because 1 TRN used over 10 rounds is worth far more than 10 TRNs purchased in J10 in terms of the game for Japan’s advances.
And before you say that Japan immediately replaces it, Jen you yourself stated that your bid does NOT change if the SZ59 TRN lives or dies: 3 TRN, 2 INF (assuming no Japan bid).
So now Japan is down the use of that TRN for both J1 (reducing thei landing strength by 50% in J1)
Down 1 TRN in J2 (reducing their landing strength by 20%
And with a TRN a round purchase by Japan from J3 forward, and with Jen’s previously stated position that she likes 7 (or more) Japan TRN’s to allow for naval fodder, clearing the islands, mobility and to use on Africa…
It will be AT LEAST J5 before Japan catches up and finally builds the TRN that actually replaces the dead TRN.
So you lose at least $40 IPC of transport power over the span of 5 turns by losing that TRN.
UK’s Pac and Indian fleet on the other hand has no real value (outside of KJF) for anything except killing the SZ59 TRN (and SZ45 SUB), until about the same Turn 5, and then pretty much only as a final “don;t even think about a desperation strike on my Navy” kind of usage by UK.
UK loses units with no real value to UK’s KGF strat
Japan loses a time-weighted value of $40 for losing the TRN.
Not to mention potential opportunity costs of fewer TRNs early, and the additional revenue spent on TRNs that could instead be ground units at the gates of Moscow around J7 or 8 (assuming that the 7th TRN is all Japan wanted, and thus the dead TRN is finally replaced in J5, instead of an INF and ARM built in J5 and sent toward moscow… )