You are negating the value of giving the Russians FOUR needed attacks on R2 instead of only 3… and having only 2 FIGs (MAYBE 3) available for the attacks. That leaves Russian ART and probably some ARM hanging out on the front, against Germany’s 5 FIGs and BOM…
True, but also consider the larger picture - Russia is in the habit of using artillery on the front lines. They have 2 of them in W. Russia, and 1-2 in Caucasus. And then there’s 2-3 fighters. They have no trouble of extending to all 4 areas, in which you will only see 0-1 German inf. Germany can’t afford to picket out 2+ inf that early on, and it’s quite easy for the Russians to take out 0-1 inf in all 4 territories. Ukraine is trivial because of the 6 men in Caucasus, and then that means you have that fat W. Russia stack to take out Belo/Karelia, and 6 men in Russia to assign to Archangel. Of course you will not need to assign that many men, but the point is that Russia isn’t struggling to take back the territories; there are plenty of units available.
Also, can Germany afford their figs/bomb on Round 2?
The reason why I ask is because it is not readily apparent as you seem to make it out to be. Usually the German figs are hanging out in W. Europe on G1, in order to give some sort of minimum threat to UK shipping, so that they don’t just land on Norway on UK1. If they are in W. Europe, then it puts them out of position to contest Ukraine/Belo and also land back in W. Europe. Displaced fighters from W. Europe makes it that much easier for the UK/US to move around and land hard.
The German bomber is also likely to be contesting Egypt again on G2.
So really, while there is indeed a potential of 5 fig/1bomb, do not make the potential look as if it has no costs to the Germans. If they do want to use the 5 fig/bomb to trade territories for that one turn, that puts them out of defensive placement in W. Europe.
In short, Russia is NOT going to abandon Karelia, they SHOULD picket it with 1 INF.
I agree, if for different reasons.