G1 attack: When should Japan declare war

[simon33]

Good post from DaddyK. Regardless of the Japanese DOW, getting on Moscow G5/G6 is quite difficult if the allies respond appropriately. Flying fighters up through the middle east will normally stop that from happening.

I’ve never thought about a G1/J1 being valid for the purposes of going after the pacific. Surely this theory relies on a fair bit of Atlantic US spending.

[DaddyK]

Simon is correct that if the Allies respond appropriately a G5/G6 capture of Moscow can be stopped.  Part of the fun of doing G1 (particularly if your opponents are not used to it) is that they may not respond appropriately (or appropriately enough).  A G1 often presents a chance to knock out a clump of units because the retreat needs to happen a little faster.  The same is true in getting UK planes to Moscow.  Taking Moscow on G5 is very doable if there are no UK planes (should be somewhere around 23 units left). With 6 planes (1 tac) it drops to an unacceptable 7 units left. If you wait until G6 when the Bulgarians and Fins can reach Moscow (along with an additional 3 tanks built in Ukraine) then you are back to about 23 units surviving against 6 UK planes, and the surviving amount goes down by about 3 for every UK fighter added.  Here I am talking about a J4 scenario where you bought 8 bombers on G3/G4 and lost one to Moscow strategic bombing AA fire.

[DaddyK]

Loonytrain, let us know what you ended up doing and how it worked out.

[simon33]

Some of my G1 games have seen a UK2 DOW. I’d wonder if positioning to convoy off all their money if they DOW (as I usually do) is a negative expected value. Probably you want to the UK2 DOW.

I can’t see a J2 DOW with a G1 but I can see J3 if there isn’t much of an Atlantic build up for the USA released. Much stronger move for Japan than just leaving the USA3 DOW.

[Caesar-Seriona]

I never really liked the idea of Japanese declaration against the US on turn 1 only because it is better to see which side of the ocean USA thinks is going to be worse.

[Loonytrain]

Thank you all for the advice.  We decided we’ll go with a J1 attack.  We don’t think that a J4 gives Japan a chance to win quickly enough (quickest around J10 assuming both Sydney and Honolulu are being appropriately stacked) and that it’s not a good idea for the critical turn for Germany (G6) being so far away from when Japan is attempting to win.  If G6 goes poorly (invasion of Europe by Allies or non effective battle in Moscow) we reckon that the full might of the UK and US being turned to Japan dooms them as well.  With both Germany and Japan attempting to win on turns 7-8 that should create enough pressure on the US that they’ll over commit to one side of the board.  G1/J1 should also work well as a shock and awe tactic as in the 12 games our group has played Germany has never attacked turn 1 and the US usually buys full Pacific for at least the first two turns hopefully causing them to under commit to one board.

We were thinking that Italy should abandon North Africa and only build a navy big enough to retain control of SZ 97 (protected by 3 fighter scramble) to stop convoys.  They’re main goal will be to build up forces to deter/defeat an Allied invasion of Europe until G6 and G7 when Germany can build anything needed to beat them back to the sea. Thoughts?

The game is set for all day Saturday.  I’ll update you guys on Sunday.

[DaddyK]

I few thoughts for your consideration on Italy.  Since a G1 sacrifices killing the UK navy in sz 110 for killing Russian infantry, you are generally not making any naval builds with Germany or Italy because you are usually just too weak to accomplish much with them and they distract from the land/air build up you need.  With that in mind I would not scramble against Taranto, and on I1 I would use the remaining navy plus the air force to clean out Sz 97 (forget the French fleet) this conserves the German air force for more important battles later.  On the German side I like using two subs to take out the cruiser in sz 91, but the COW opening attack on sz109 has merit as well (plus the usual attacks on sz 106 and 111).  Sending a sub to sz 125 to block lend lease for a turn is also worth considering since using it in the sz 111 battle probably just preserves the German battleship with one hit, which the French cruiser and plane will kill on F1.

Your thoughts on North Africa are dead on.  I would use your remaining transport to start shuttling troops back to Europe (with the tank in the first load).  This is another reason I like taking out the UK cruiser in sz 91on G1 and using the Italian navy to clean out sz 97 on I1.

Be sure to send your two tanks east on turn one for can openers in Russia.

Set up to take Yugo (which should be weakened by the G2 strafe I mentioned in my first post) and Greece on I2 (using your air force and the troops you are shuttling back from Africa). This should give Italy enough production to defend itself and Greece (a UK landing there can a royal pain with the German army deep in Russia)

If the US shows up with a large invasion force in sz91/Gibraltar and there are no fighters on Gibraltar, the Italian bomber can strat bomb the naval base and keep the US out of range of Italy, West Germany, Denmark and Norway for a turn.  Very situational, but can be very helpful in the right circumstance.

Good Luck tomorrow

[MarshmallowofWar]

@DaddyK:

I few thoughts for your consideration on Italy.  Since a G1 sacrifices killing the UK navy in sz 110 for killing Russian infantry, you are generally not making any naval builds with Germany or Italy because you are usually just too weak to accomplish much with them and they distract from the land/air build up you need.  With that in mind I would not scramble against Taranto, and on I1 I would use the remaining navy plus the air force to clean out Sz 97 (forget the French fleet) this conserves the German air force for more important battles later.

Unless the UK goes light on Taranto, scrambling is always a bad idea.

Also, I advise against wasting the Italian navy and air force in sea zone 97 and instead suggest that you hit sea zone 97 on G2 with the Luftwaffe. The cost in aircraft is small for Germany, but the cost of hitting it on I1 with Italy is much larger in terms of Italy’s ability to contribute effectively in the Med.

Marsh

[simon33]

Re: the above. If you are saying to ignore Africa as Italy, leaving the UK fleet in 97 for the Luftwaffe is a bad trade, for pretty obvious reasons. I’m not completely convinced of that but I would be strongly inclined to step on Gibraltar if I did that and USA wasn’t in the war.

Re: scrambling vs not scrambling. Scrambling probably probably leaves a cruiser and maybe a dented CV. Not scrambling probably leaves an cruiser, CV, fighter. Attacking the former with the 3 ships is an 81%, +16TUV battle. Adding the bomber makes it 99%, +21TUV. Attacking the latter with the 3 ships + 2 fighters is 78%, +10TUV battle and adding the bomber makes it 99% +18TUV. Given that scrambling has a positive TUV expected value, I’d need to be convinced that not scrambling is better in a G1 situation.

Back to G1: In one game I am playing Allies against a G1, Germany went after 110 with 8 planes and two subs instead of 111 and kept the BB alive. I scrambled but my 111 fleet was toast in 110 G2 after scrambling G1. I suppose I could have moved to 123 but I still would have been toast - Germany bought a DD too so I didn’t really have anywhere to run.

[WILD BILL]

If you do G1 & J1, you might also consider hitting Pearl J1 to stall the USA. There has been a lot of discussion about this controversial move, but removing both the Phil & Hawaiian ships will leave the US fewer assets to work with. You would hit the Hawaiian fleet w/sub, couple DD’s and 4 air units, then bring your capital ships and some support ships to Wake to pick up air (maybe taking Wake too). Must have at least 1 DD survive the battle in sz26 so it blocks the US San Fran fleet from hitting you. By sinking the US Haw fleet they won’t be able to send the bulk of the Pac ships through the canal to Euro side. They will need to build more warships which means fewer tpts. It forces the US into a weaker position, and they have some tough choices to make.

You will be able to hit all the other J1 stuff that normally get hit like the Brit BB, Phil island (using 3rd carrier), Kwangtung etc…, but it will put your fleet out of position. On J2 you then retreat to Caroline’s and you’re back on track. You then use the Phil tpts to take Malaya J2, and money islands on J3 w/tpts built J1 etc… You’ll be a little thin in Asia, but an IC or two can fix that pretty quickly to start pressuring India.

Just my 2 cents WB

[simon33]

I actually think the US BB should start in SZ26 to give an incentive to this attack which was historically accurate too. Perhaps the cruiser too, but both of those take balance in the wrong direction.