Interesting idea but what if UK decides to stack the sz inside the Med next to Gib with the purchase of an air base. It makes your second invasion impossible since they will have more than enough to kill your navy parked in the channel
But the UK navy in the med is blocked by Italian ships in SZ 95 and 96 at the start
When you say spare your BB, do you mean retreat it after one round of combat, in which case UK will still have a damaged BB and possibly a cruiser as well? Because that combined with the cruiser from 91 and the 109 destroyer plus the possibility of a scramble on G2 will suck up a lot of your aircraft. I’d say at least 5 or 6 planes would need to go into 110 on G2 which will leave more inf surviving in London than you’d like.
Or do you mean don’t even include your BB in the first turn of combat? In that case,you’ll only have 3 subs to take hits when clearing out all of the royal navy (since you’re using 2 subs in 106). That sounds like you’ll be taking prodigious hits to your luftwaffe. I’d scramble if I was UK. I’d be taking a lot more of your planes than you’d be taking of mine and I’d replenish them with Gib and a purchase on turn 1 and with Malta, the tac in 98 and another purchase on turn 2. I wouldn’t mind sacrificing positioning in the Med either, since you’ve already committed to sealion and it probably wouldn’t work.
In fact, I took a break from writing this to enter this scenario into a battle calculator. The most efficient distribution I found to take out both 110 and 111 with 3 subs, 10 planes is this:
110 - 2 subs, 2 pairs fig/tac, 1 or 2 bombers
111 - 1 sub, 2 pairs fig/tac, 0 or 1 bombers
This is the most efficient because after a UK scramble in both, you still survive with 3-4 planes. But that’s on average; there’s still a strong chance (~25%) that you’ll fail one of them and a decent chance (~10%) that you’ll fail both. Other permutations were even less favorable.
But all this is moot since, as AldoRaine pointed out, UK can just bring his Med fleet up to block you. He can kill the Italian destroyer in 96 in the combat phase and then move its fleet to 92 in the noncombat phase of the same first turn.
I think you math does not add opp. On your G2 attack I assume
5I , 5 A, 5 Tac, 5 FTR and 2 bombers vs 5AAA, 15I, 1 M, 5 ftr with 1 bb in shorebombardment. I assume he does not do taronto with his gibraltar ftr, since you are not helping the italian fleet with your german ftrs. Because of this, UK will not need it for taronto.
When I look at your losses, you will kill 5 AAA and 1 inf in round 1, retreat your planes and kill 1 inf more in round 2. you will also have lost 2-3 ftrs. Since i didn’t remove any fighters for your actions in G1, I will remove one now
For your next invasion you will have 7 inf, 7 tank, 2 ftr, 5 tac and 4 bombers.
Since uk bought 9 inf, (27 ipc) and will collect at least 34 ipc, I will assume UK has 35. For 35 IPC uk will buy 2 AAA 1 art and 7 inf.
Now the battle is
7I , 7 Tank, 5 Tac, 2 FTR and 4 bombers vs 2AAA, 20I, 1 M, 1 art, 5 ftr with 1 bb in shorebombardment.
In this scenario, you have 30% chance at best to win, and this is assuming everything goes your way.
A good UK player would keep 3 AAA in the first assault, and reduce you to only a 20-25 % chance of winning in the second.
I have rarely seen a time where a 2nd round attack on London made sense. If all of the dice work out on G1 than it can be amazing, but you need to have every single major battle go in Germany’s favor. The UK can gamble a bit with scrambles or counterattacks. If they win, the game is essentially over. If they lose than the Allies face a standard London-has-fallen situation which isn’t necessarily that bad.
The only two-stage type sea lion attacks I’ve heard of and seen (only 1x) are when the first landing is on Scotland with like 3 transports worth of ground…maybe 6 infantry or 5 infantry and 1 AAA on G2…then Germany drops more transports and plans to finish the job on G3. With only 6 infantry (or 5 inf/1 AAA) in Scotland it becomes a tough choice for the UK to either attack it…or just defend in place.
In this scenario, which I’m not a fan of…it could become a problem if the Allies (maybe France or the UK) are able to sneak a destroyer into SZ 112 during a non-combat move which blocks the G3 double landing.
Amongst the live triplea players I regularly see, Sea Lion has lately become very fashionable. In most of these games, I’m seeing the Axis side win the game. Axis players are smarter about how they manage Russia and doing stuff like stacking on E. Poland the turn they attack London in order to create an extra buffer zone. I’ve also seen people successfully executing Sea Lion despite the UK placing the “responsible” 6 infantry/1 fighter on London. (I recognize that I could be in a “group” think situation and not even realize it). Myself, against players I know who are better than me and like to execute Sea Lion, at times I’ve placed a much more defensive 9 ground units UK1.
Why can’t Italy clear out that destroyer that sneaked into 112?
In these sea lion games, does America usually destroy all the transports on A3?
As Allies, I always activate Ireland. If Germany built any navy, America might bring a carrier and a destroyer around panama and buy a bomber. If he commits to a sealion, at the very least I’ll have a pair of fig/tac and 4 bombers that I can bring into 110, but probably 2 pairs and 5 bombers. The only way to save his transports at that point is by buying expensive ships in the channel and probably even an airbase in Normandy. There’s no question UK needs to take Scotland back if Germany pre-staged there; otherwise America’s bombers landing in Ireland can get blitzed.
Thanks to those who ran the math. Really shows the risk/reward of a battle like this, which is an attempt to strike the killing blow before war is even fully joined by all Allies.
However, you will have to have
good or great luck (75%ile or above on the bell curve)
and/or a slightly blind opponent who ignores your sea-facing posture with all those reserve land units and your airforce lurking on WGER
(this was me last game…those flat transport barges hide among the rest of the sea units like experts!)
Getting the money is ok but knocking UK offline is the best thing you can accomplish, because once that happens it takes 2 turns just to start making anything again and UK has 3 game regions it could potentially be dropping stuff.
(a house rule about capital-less empires getting their rump income and able to produce limited units in their minor complexes might be a good adjustment)
It is kinda frustrating that in order to make this dynamic play possible, and give Germany a chance of having any turn 1-4 gambit work, the UK’s choices will be pretty limited during UK1-3 and it must turtle and hide. But, since the chance of absolute, unequivocal success for Germany is pretty low, after UK3, the Allies regain the advantage of Germany’s excessive concentration on one goal, and they tear it to pieces.
Normaly germany buys a carrier.
So during G3 they buy 1 extra carrier and staff it with planesSo 2 full carriers + destroyer + cruiser + BB vs your 4 bombers a 2 fighters 2 tacts sure bring it on.
Perhaps.
With the people on triplea I regularly play live games with (not PBEM), Sea Lion is popular. In most of them when it occurs, the Axis win the game. Also, most players who do Sea Lion, are not buying any boats G1 (except maybe 1 sub). They’re buying 1 bomber/ground, or 2 bombers/1 sub. Then the UK player thinks they can get away with say a purchase of 2 fighters/2 infantry after scrambling, or flying a fighter to the med. Then the Axis, just say, oh, I guess I’m doing Sea Lion. Then drop like 7 transports and a destroyer.
OK one more try, with some adjustments.
G1: Build 4 trn.
Attack SZ 110 with 1 sub, 1 battleship and 4 tac bombers and 2 fighters. Lose the sub and battleship first. Attack SZ 111 with 2 subs, 2 fighters and 2 bombers. Still attack the Canadian des and trn with 2 subs.
As usual, all land units in range attack Paris except 3 inf and 1 art from Belgium, which attack Normandy.
Take Bulgaria with 1 inf from Romania and Finland with 1 inf from Norway and attack Yugoslavia with 6 inf from Greater Southern Germany and the tac bomber and tank from Poland and the fighter and tank from Slovakia and 1 tank from Romania.
Non-combat: Move cruiser and trn from SZ 114 to sz 113. Land 2-3 fighters in Western Germany. Land tac bomber from Poland in Western Germany and fighter from Slovakia in Belgium. Land all other planes in Belgium.
Place 4 trn in SZ 113.
UK builds 9 inf, Italy attacks UK cruiser and/or des if moved to block, on G2 Ger builds 1 trn, 1 cruiser, 1 aircraft carrier, the rest bombers. Ger attacks with 5 inf 5 art plus planes plus cuiser bombardment. Retreat planes to aircraft carrier and Belgium when it looks like you will lose more than one.
Place Ger units in SZ 110 from Normandy factory.
UK builds say 11 inf. Ger builds all inf and tanks to go against USSR, attack London with 6 inf, 6 tanks and all planes and 2 cruiser bombardments.
In regard to UK using their med fleet by taking out the Italian des in SZ 96 and then non-combatting to SZ 92, the Italian fleet can attack them there because they did not do Taranto. If UK builds an airbase in Gibraltar and lands planes there to defend the med fleet, that is less defending London.
I think you just made your plan worse.
I pointed out that the attack on G3 isn’t strong enough to take London. You have just made your G3 attack weaker, which means that london definlity isn’t falling.
