Play strong with Germany.
I wouldn’t be to worried about the FIC attack, IMO it isn’t that great of an option. I have seen Japan get absolutely hammered trying to take China (2 inf, 1 ftr) with 6-7 inf, 2 ftrs, where Japan can lose 4-5 inf easy. I’m simply not worried about 3 inf, 1 ftr vs. 2 inf 1 ftr, not in ADS.
The only must attacks for Japan are China and Pearl. Buy trns (possibly a DD pending UK fleet position) and ignore what happen in Fic. You can probably attack Sz 59 too depending on what is there, but I’d rather hit Pearl if I had to choose one or the other.
If you get a 9 bid you can go 2 inf Lib, 1 Fic and solve the problem right there.
If you are only bidding to Lib, that is still okay just make sure you buy only land for Germany and include tanks. Pending Russia’s attacks you might be able to go 5 inf, 5 arm (I perfer 10-2) but you need to have enough armor so you can move everything to Ukr on G2 and hold. All armor should be in EE at the end of G1.
With the Afr bid UK/US still need to go to Afr in either rd 1 or 2 or both and that gives you time to be aggressive in trying to hold Ukr. Once you hold Ukr the Allies won’t be able to pester Japan that much and pessure on them will quickly diminish.
My guess would be, if Germany comes out aggressive on G1 with a Inf/Tank buy then UK probably won’t even mess with Japan since it is clear Germany is in position to capitalize (they’ll also hold Egy strong). Now that 50/50 battle in Fic doesn’t look too good and UK is risking a lot should they get no hits and Japan scores 2.